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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Might not be temps that save the triad, but a complete lack of qpf
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Nice glaze forming now. Temp has dropped and rates have lightened so we’re getting better accumulation. Not expecting much but it is pretty
  3. NorthHillsWx
    We have a light glaze on everything elevated now that I can see. Temp 31.7 DP 30.9
  4. NorthHillsWx
    We have dipped to freezing here as I wake up. Actually sounds like some sleet banging on the window. 31.9/31. Not sure if there’s a glaze yet or not
  5. NorthHillsWx
    NE wind has really picked up. Stepped outside for dinner and it had that “storms a coming” feel to it
  6. NorthHillsWx
    If we had a stronger HP this would include a lot more of us tomorrow. Those single digit readings in Pennsylvania...
  7. NorthHillsWx
    I know it’s noise at this point, but the 18z gfs was fairly significantly warmer than 12z
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Clouds have moved into the Raleigh area. Any potential for radiational cooling is gone. Temp 44, DP 25. Not looking like the immediate Raleigh area is at risk for exceeding ice expectations. Usually need that DP in the teens to around 20 to get it done here
  9. NorthHillsWx
    This has been the fly in the ointment for this forecast for DAYS. It’s inexplicably warm for a LP track such as this. The 2002 event had +5 850’s and some models, as you pointed out, are predicting nearly double that, an absolute mid level torch! My thoughts are they are overdone somehow. Will be interesting to see how the mid levels actually play out through tomorrow, I have a gut feeling it’s overdone and models are too warm based on the warm 850’s, but we will see. As you said, uncharted territory
  10. NorthHillsWx
    While an interesting note, the air this system will be working with here has absolutely no connection to the cold air that settled west of the apps. I’d be looking north of here for temp/dew point trends vs model outputs in terms of verification of our winter event
  11. NorthHillsWx
    0.5“-0.75” and “scattered” outages...
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Imo no. 850s +5-7 seems too warm for sleet. 925’s are marginally conducive for sleet and i think that’s what the NAM is catching, but south of the va border looks like a freezing rain event to me with limited sleet
  13. NorthHillsWx
    12k keeps a large area of sleet through the storm. Could be the saving grace
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Currently 45.4 and DP of 24, both down a degree since last time I checked about and hour ago.
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Flash flood watch. Now I’m positive that will verify
  16. NorthHillsWx
    I will promise you this: if precip holds off in any area until much after 12z, that area will not receive an ice storm, lol
  17. NorthHillsWx
    Biggest reason why is it keeps almost all precip west through 12-15z. Verbatim, Raleigh wouldn’t even see steady precip until around 15z. No wet bulbing east of precip
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Also, don’t declare this storm a bust if fringe counties (mecklenburg, wake people, looking at you!) don’t get much of any ice. This has always been a triad/Virginia border storm, north. Models trends put those on the south sides of the warning areas in play, but stopped before we were ever really in the game, minus a run or two. Overall, same areas we flagged for a major ice storm 2 days ago look to be in for a major ice storm...
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Looking forward to your pictures. Your drone pics have become a highlight of every post-storm day here!
  20. NorthHillsWx
    1) Models always underestimate a wedge to some degree 2) models always try to kick out a wedge too fast to some degree 3) when making a CAD forecast, real time dew points and temps matter more than anything. Watch that then factor in 1 and 2 4) this is not a rapidly retreating high and not an apps runner. This wedge should have lasting power. Only thing I can figure would be heavy rates able to warm it from above given the hot 850’s, but that will be difficult to forecast until game time. Light rates and I don’t think that impacts this as much
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Some people never learn
  22. NorthHillsWx
    This storm looks to be of the crippling variety, unfortunately
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Sounds like a broken record today but 18z GFS continues to trend colder and further south with freezing rain.
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out
  25. NorthHillsWx
    This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so
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