NorthHillsWx

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago

While I agree with your comments about the SAL dissipating somewhat allowing for the increased chances of activity, it comes with a period of significant wind shear in pockets across the basin. I do not see a path for a strong storm over the next 2 weeks unless something develops rapidly in a window but with multiple TUTTs and SAL sticking around even if diminished it does not look like an environment that would support a long track system especially one of a stronger intensity

Looks like a bunch of short lived sheared systems but an active stretch nonetheless

It’s bad when 92 and a heat index of 95 qualifies as a cool down

Had 5 separate storms yesterday all with a lot of lightning. Kinda got a little fringed on most of them but still picked up 0.45” of rain. Did not get fringed by lightning however. It was rocking for several hours straight it seemed like

Agreed. This is the one we should be focused on at this point

Anyone order up any lightning? If so your order was delivered to the Raleigh area this afternoon

.29” from afternoon storms. High 97.4

Crazy watching these powerful waves just evaporate over the MDR on modeling in peak season. Ensemble support had definitely increased and (we are in peak season now) the threat level is higher than it was a couple weeks ago but a couple of limiting factors remain: 1) SAL - this *should* follow climo and become less of a factor over the next few weeks but it is a dessert across most of the Atlantic 2) East coast trough - this has been mentioned on here but a few thoughts: with a persistent trough over the east coast we are seeing more intrusions of continental dry air into the GOM, a TUTT over the western Atlantic, and a natural barrier to storms forming east favoring recurves. With the trough in place and the possibility more fronts make it to the gulf or SE coast to rot, that could be a focal point for development at some point but currently there is too much shear for that to happen. 3) subsidence off the African coast - this is something to watch and we saw this a lot last august, but these massive waves seem to blow up over the continent and die over water. I can’t blame SAL for this entirely. It seems the current pattern has created an area of subsidence near the CV islands. Perhaps it’s the wave interaction with the strong monsoon trough but it’s been a wave killer for MDR storms two years in a row. That’s something I’d like to see examined as a case study for impacts to East Atlantic waves stemming from a long period La Niña 4) hostile Caribbean - very normal for early season but should be transitioning to a more favorable environment by now. This is where El Niño impacts will be seen the strongest. While current shear conditions across the area are not necessarily related to an El Niño pattern, will there be a period when it becomes favorable before the shear due to ENSO arrives? An active E PAC usually shuts down the Caribbean and brings me to me last observation… 5) Active E PAC - we all know an active E PAC does not favor development in the western Atlantic. With the E PAC season ramping up, does that further punt the start of the western Atlantic/GOM/Caribbean season?

Dora has racked up an absurd ACE value of 74

0.42” from a nice steady soaking rain around lunch earlier today

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles

Not exactly sticking their necks out with that forecast haha. A spread in numbers from normal to way above in every category.

Dora has accumulated an impressive ACE of over 42. With a couple days left of the system maintaining MH status, this storm will cross 50 and potentially exceed a value of 60+ ACE. Absolutely an incredible storm.

I still think our best shot this season is going to be homegrown systems from decaying cold fronts. With the eastern trough being a somewhat prominent feature, this should allow fronts to make it to, and decay over the gulf/southwestern Atlantic. El Niño climo typically favors this setup for development. As we get into September, more and more fronts make it into the gulf/off the Florida coast. That is when and where I think this hurricane season picks up

This is running into a wall of shear on that model. There should be the climo uptick in waves coming off the African coast but the wall of shear from the TUTT will make life difficult even for the strongest waves moving over the central MDR. GFS shows a better shear environment in this range though it disagrees with its ensembles, which hold the TUTT strong through the period. One thing that does bode well for maybe an uptick in activity in mid-late month period is the eastern Atlantic seems to moisten up considerably. Assuming some well formed waves exit the African coast they should have a decent chance of developing right off the bat, even if they get sheared apart entering the central Atlantic.

Potential that the Most damaging storm of the year never came within 100 miles of land

Unlikely. With El Niño strengthening into the fall this was widely viewed as a front loaded season. It would have to strongly diverge strongly from ENSO to see an extended season

Going to have to be a nuclear September to have anything close to CSU’s prediction come true. This looks like a repeat of last August’s setup in the Atlantic, but worse ENSO for development. Honestly not sure we crack 100 ACE if the only windows for development are right off the east coast or sub tropics. No one’s seen any switch flipping in any modeling and any uptick in long range activity either evaporates or gets punted.

0.73” from the severe line as it ripped through. One of the few warnings that lived up to the hype imby. Lucky none of our trees came down, plenty down around the neighborhood. Tree in yard behind mine got struck by lightning

One of the worst wind storms I can remember since I moved to my current neighborhood 5 years ago. Winds definitely in the 60 mph range, frequent, close lightning, and a lot of trees/branches down. Lots of power outages around the neighborhood, we got lucky and ours came back on last night. Only 0.73” of rain but it was limited only by duration, not intensity

Dora has generated up to 31 points of ACE already. Dora might have etched its place in history as the most impressive microcane ever witnessed. Day after day of a tiny perfectly symmetrical high end system

Only picked up 0.02” last couple days

This wave is getting some ensemble support this evening. Wouldn’t shock me to see something out of this