NorthHillsWx

This is beginning to get that desperation feel to it. Cutter after cutter after cutter. There is no way every one of these storms is modeled perfectly but as depicted at 12z, I just don’t think we are capable of winning in the SE anymore. I’ve got no words.

Lots of CAD possibilities but we just cannot time any right with a HP for anything substantial per current modeling.

If I was in the mid Atlantic I’d be pressing the panic button hard as it relates to this weekends system. It has really become a progressive strung out mess. Pretty much everyone outside the mountains/foothills going to struggle with BL issues even up north unless the storm winds up as it looked like it would do past couple days. For us, the can has been kicked to late month

Lots of rain on GFS

I know everyone is fixated on the systems this week, but you have to love the long range look. The amped apps runner after the storm on the 7th really helps to set the stage for a real arctic outbreak and with snow cover north of us it really helps that cold air to make it south and east. Also, the niño effect on STJ is going strong through the period. I am extremely confident this forum will have multiple threats mid month and beyond and there are no signs that will be a short period either. So far, LR guidance has been extremely accurate with this pattern. From the flip we are experiencing now, to the brief warmup, then the real show begins. Save this post and bash me later, but I am becoming more and more bullish that the second half of January will bring us our shots.

In the 0Z ICON we trust

12z ensemble trends were in our favor for the long-term. Jan 7-8 should be watched but I just don’t think there’s enough of a cold source for snows outside the mountains, regardless of track. We want the trends 12z took from a synoptic perspective however for the longer range. Suppress the CPAC high and push everything further east. With an active STJ we will score eventually as long as there is a cold source. Doesn’t need to be earth shattering cold either

The signal for the Jan 7-8 storm is very high however at this point it seems to be a foothills/mountains deal. Beyond that, I am growing very concerned with the ensemble look of building in a ridge in the CPAC. While I think a warmup mid month seemed somewhat likely, it never really gets cold beforehand and now I am increasingly concerned about how long it will take to break that feature down. That was a semi permanent feature last season and we know how that turned out. Hopefully we see ensembles weaken that ridge and allow cold air progression east of the central states or we will be banking on fabulous February. This was the ONE thing I was hoping to avoid this year and hopefully it is transient but we all know those cpac ridges can be tough to dislodge and once established we are usually in a can kicking regime

GFS has rain up to the Hudson Bay on January 10

Minus that GLL

1.13” here

There is just enough cold air around. We don’t want a massive arctic surge in this pattern as that will lead to a suppressed storm track. With the active STJ and NAO trending solidly negative, we are in business from two of the better players on the field in a Nino cycle. The pac could use some work and models are showing some pesky GLLs but I am extremely excited about the Jan 6-10 period and beyond.

The long range looks very, very good. That is all

Man watching the HP move in on the GFS for the fantasy storm is a thing of CAD beauty. 1030 just perfectly placed and timed correctly. I’m positive it happens exactly as depicted in reality!

The 12z GFS look for the 8-10th would lock the Carolina’s up for 5 days if that happened. Heavy front and backside snow sandwiched around a massive IP and Ice storm. That would be a glacier. Extreme Cold behind it too. Yes please!!! This weenie would be satisfied for the season

This period has my full attention

Finally a long range op run with multiple winter weather chances. This aligns perfectly with the ensembles and their well-advertised pattern flip going into the first week of Jan. I already like this more than the last few years where we started kicking the can chasing day 15 pattern changes 7x a week at this point. Nice seeing a favorable pattern in peak climo seemingly becoming a reality. Even if this window doesn’t produce the LR looks extremely good and I think we will have a couple shots before mid month. That doesn’t mean anyone outside of the mountains scores, but we will have opportunities to track

GEFS and GEPS both look really good for the first week of January. This hasn’t been a can kick either.

Surprised to see a wintry mix when I let the dog out

2.90” storm total here. 6.94” for the week including last weekends storm. That’s a hell of a way to kill the drought

High wind warning now

50-60 mph ground verified gusts showing up in southern piedmont

Moments later: confirmed tornado in Myrtle beach moving NE. Debris signature clear on radar

That area Myrtle Beach-Wilmington needs to be vigilant for tornadoes with this band moving through. Lots of areas showing broad rotation and there’s a lot of energy with that band

That was a really good storm. Everything stuck and was in mid 20’s and snowing. Stayed cold afterwards. That’s the only bright spot since December 2018 and it was just 3-4” in my area