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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. Recon matches what we all saw on satellite: Lee is losing tropical characteristics quickly. More or less the temp profile of a front and the highest winds are well away from the center. That NW band actually has the first hurricane-force SFMR values seen in the last couple flights
  2. Going to be our 4th major and likely another cat 4 if guidance is to be trusted. What a season
  3. Did no expect the core to completely disappear this soon.
  4. With yet another long track storm possible next week, it’s worth noting that Atlantic ACE has exceeded 100 units this morning and with two active storms plus the future Nigel on the way, that value will continue to increase through next week. We are now running well ahead and likely to exceed normal seasonal values if early forecasts for Nigel verify. Pretty impressive for an El Niño year
  5. Not sure any international agency would’ve prevented what happened in Libya, sadly.
  6. Other than FL winds, nothing else points to this being a cat 2 anymore. Max SFMR values of 70-75 kts two flights in a row
  7. Regardless where/if this comes ashore, I think the calling card will be rain and inland flooding. There’s really no baroclinic forcing or jet streak to enhance winds during the ET transition like some of the storms that hit up north and models are showing a rapid and normal decay of winds once this transitions over the wall of the Gulf Stream. Add into that, wind shear really peaks at 20-30kts by the time this is going by Bermuda and you have a rapidly weakening system before it hits the cold water north of the GS. Also, for a high latitude storm, this will be comparatively crawling in terms of forward speed (which will further decrease the wind threat). However, that slower than normal forward speed and tge potential for a bit of a pivot means that heavy tropical moisture will be thrust into the NW side of the system (normal during ET transition) and areas not accustomed to these tropical rain rates will have a prolonged rainstorm. I really think inland flooding with this could be significantly worse than many recent high latitude storms that were flying through when they impacted land. Though I think the wind threat has decreased significantly since even yesterday
  8. Isabel is such an underrated storm. That’s the high tide mark for a mid-Atlantic purely tropical storm in my lifetime. I think the storm beginning with an “S” made many forget about Isabel North of Maryland
  9. One thing about Lee, hurricane force winds now extend extremely far from center. Recon is finding this thing has exploded in size. It’s probably a high end cat 2 now (FL 105-108 kts, SFMR 90 kts) tho there is evidence to keep it a 3 for posterity at least but wow at the expansion of hurricane force winds
  10. That 0z run would be one of the worst erosion events ever for the SE coast lol
  11. Do not, I repeat do no use any sort of tropical pressure scale to estimate wind of high latitude, post tropical systems. Pressures are lower up north and lower pressures in these regions will not be associated to winds the same way they are for storms that are purely tropical in nature and in lower latitudes. I’m not saying a Cat 1 is off the table but some models have been showing pressures as low as the 950’s and 960’s near any landfall and wind will certainly be nowhere near those levels
  12. The board is going to go full blown weenie mode by Wednesday
  13. 0.08” yesterday for a 3 day total of 1.86”
  14. Margot looks like a hurricane this morning. Think we’ll see an update at 11. The activity continues
  15. Recon is showing signs of a double wind maximum
  16. Lee keeps trying, but I think a combination of done pesky dry air and possibly some remnant shear keep plaguing the system keeping it in check
  17. All I’ll say for those seeking hurricane conditions in NE with these westward shifts is forget about it. Coming further west seems to only happen if the storm avoids capture and slows down allowing HP to build back in somewhat. A storm slowing down over the frigid waters off Massachusetts/Maine will weaken to a Nor Easter gale by the time it makes it to the coast
  18. 1.63” from multiple rounds of storms and showers Saturday
  19. I WAS THINKING OF THIS. Very similar situation
  20. Recon shows this a mid range cat 2 at the moment. The storm clearly ingested dry air. That takes time to resolve
  21. It’s got the “took a huge gulp of ML dry air” look
  22. Lee dropped 45 kts from 5 am to 11 pm yesterday. From rapid intensification to rapid weakening in a short period
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