NorthHillsWx

Man, 850’s are an absolute torch on both NAM and GFS. With the lack of an apps runner, what is causing this surge? I think combined with heavier rates that leads to higher BL temps on some modeling as it eats into the wedge from above.

Goodness. That’s not what you want to see getting close to game time. Cut those totals in half and you have 2002...

We missed (thankfully) on the rain last night. Probably the first Underperformer of the year in the rainfall department. Only 0.11” overnight

From some of the pics and videos showing vehicles thrown I’d say this will likely end up as an EF-3 based on that alone. Some terrible pics and videos emerging this morning. Really confirming radar imagery from last night

For RAH, this is an extremely aggressive map at this juncture

One marked trend going back 48 hours now has been significant cooling of the column north of our sub forum. Much deeper cold air has also been noted on several models in the 900-925 mb layer and has been picked up on as sleet by modeling as such. I don’t know if this will have much impact on surface temps but I wouldn’t be shocked that we start seeing BL temps tick down a degree or two with the noted mid level cooling from previous runs

This wedge definitely looks to keep parts of the triangle in play for significant icing, even down to Raleigh

Winter storm watches hoisted = thread created. Maybe me starting it can send some of Raleigh’s ice barrier to you triad folks and switch this to sleet or cold rain. Good luck everyone

Here we go again. Winter storm watches up for some areas already. RAH starting to sound the alarm on this morning’s discussion. Hoping those who got hit last weekend somehow avoid another major ice event but the modeling is painting an icy picture at this point

3 deaths, 10 injuries being reported from the Brunswick county tornado last night. Terrible

What’s that, their 4th or 5th event this winter?

Well my buddy in Columbus Ohio doesn’t have the same gripe but is definitely unhappy. They had been forecast to have over a foot of snow but it’s been nothing but a couple inches sleet. I’m sure cliff diving would be similar on here given the buildup and expectation they had. It is falling on a base of 6” of snow and 18 degrees, sigh

It’s either onto something or going down with the ship for sure

On the subject of the NAM, it has surface temps in the mid 30’s and dew points in the lower to mid 20’s Thursday morning. It just doesn’t have hardly any precip. The wet bulb temps are there for an ice storm. As was said above, don’t trust the precip on the NAM. It’s very likely underdone. But don’t be fooled by the surface temps depicted sans precip. If it’s raining at that time as I believe it will be, it will be below freezing much of central and western N.C. with that thermal look

Lol. I think the icon actually did fairly well with surface temps on the last event. Seems slightly colder and “wedgier” this go round. Definitely keeps parts of the triangle as ice through most of the event. CAD regions would have a major ice event

NAM is dry

You know it’s bad when Texas and Louisiana are experiencing near blizzard conditions and we can’t even get a novelty glaze of ice. Bad bad

Draw a line from Henderson to hickory. NW of that line is a high probability warning event. Go 1-2 counties south of that line and you’re in the grey area. That’s how you forecast 90% of CAD ice events in NC and this is no exception

When you have the globals onboard this far out and mostly aligning with your mesoscale modeling, you need to start getting prepared in the CAD areas. Classic setup and honestly not that difficult to forecast. It’s the areas outside the most prone CAD regions that are in question as to how far the freezing line will establish itself but if you had bad ice from the last storm I’d take pause with what looks like models are converging on 72 hours our...

These setups are where mesoscale models shine

900-925mb area is definitely colder than the last event further into SW va and W N.C. Not only for sleet, but this region is important for freezing rain and getting the “super cooled” droplets there produce less runoff and more ice accrual. I would say the favored CAD regions may actually be in line for a deeper wedge this go round. That’s also reflected in the sub freezing surface air bleeding much further south into the upstate. This past storm was a marginal setup that was able to produce damaging ice totals through duration and light precip

A torch and a dry period to get a head start on yard work. My yard is in the worst condition since I’ve owned this house. Watching the weather channel and Monroe, La has had 2 4”+ events since January and it’s currently snowing and 17 degrees. Ugh. This was the real deal arctic blast and just missed us.

We’re going to do a “storm total” obs since it’s been nonstop since Thursday afternoon. Total rainfall in the period has totaled 3.82” Since the wedge set in Thursday night our max temp has been 37.8 yesterday afternoon. It’s currently 37.4. The minimum temp was Saturday morning of 31.6 degrees. Im sure we had a glaze of ice at some point but I never saw it

Crazy to think it’s been 4 days locked in the 30’s with precipitation each day but not a single flake. For the Wednesday/Thursday event, it looks like the same areas will get hit. Retreating HPs mean areas outside the absolute max CAD regions will quickly go to rain. Also, just like last event, 32 does not mean efficient freezing rain especially with the gigantic and deep warm nose above the ground. I agree another significant ice storm looks likely and it may very well have the same footprint as last time. Never forecast against climo for marginal ice events. I’ll speak for myself and the rest of us in the Triangle who have seen more 33 degrees and rain in the last week than anyone would like to see in a lifetime: please kick this pattern please

Yep, this.