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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    We are going to seriously undercut our forecast of 29 tonight. Already 28.2
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Maybe a change is coming but I see the can kicking beginning. To me, we can kick is past the first week in Jan now
  3. NorthHillsWx
    We’ll see. There are conflicting suites and it’s not locked in at all. GEFS is trending towards the Op. MJO staying in phase 6… I do not like what I’m seeing. Will it be 70s in January like the 18z gfs insists? No. But with all the cold dumping into upper Midwest and a SER entrenched I do not see winter weather chances at all through week 1 of the new year
  4. NorthHillsWx
    18z GFS is a clinic of how to establish a semi-permanent SER. Ugly doesn’t even do that run justice
  5. NorthHillsWx
    Euro has been terrible last few winters with handling cold in the long range. Honestly I think we continue the pattern of warmups, rain, cold, repeat, but with a bit more frequency of the cold snaps compared to last winter as it does appear more cold will be available on the continent. I do not buy an extended cold period at all
  6. NorthHillsWx
    High of 39 yesterday. Low of 22. My gauge at the farm in Louisburg bottomed out at 13.9! Raleigh is an oven
  7. NorthHillsWx
    They’re out brining roads between here and louisburg. Don’t think they even touched the brine supply last winter. W
  8. NorthHillsWx
    It’s gotten so bad that I’m hoping for a couple hours of freezing drizzle in the morning. And even that is a long shot now. Ops dumping cold into Midwest should scare everyone
  9. NorthHillsWx
    18z GFS was a disaster but ensembles have the pattern we want. I’m not getting excited until we’re in the 7 day range
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Not as cold as forecast for my location. Bottomed out at 24.7
  11. NorthHillsWx
    12z GFS is a dream run for mountain folks around the 30th
  12. NorthHillsWx
    We picked up 0.19” of rain last night after reaching a high of 71
  13. NorthHillsWx
    We don’t need wall to wall cold but getting 3 cold days then needing 3 weeks to refresh is the pattern we’ve been in for 3+ years.
  14. NorthHillsWx
    EPS and GEFS are downright disgusting heading into January. Really no sign of a pattern change on modeling except for a zonal flow and PAC puke to intensify through the end of the year. From today through Jan 1 I bet we see as many 65+ degree days as days with lows below freezing
  15. NorthHillsWx
    Tarheel is back… seasons over. Might as well hang em up till next thanksgiving
  16. NorthHillsWx
    When RDU breaks the snowless record the main forum is going to explode
  17. NorthHillsWx
    It’s absolutely pathetic. 18z GFS barely gets it below freezing for a night into SC. Just a day ago there were low 20’s pre Christmas into the Florida panhandle on some models
  18. NorthHillsWx
    That’s been lost in year a long, long time ago
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Probably going to be close. I’d think slightly below is likely still
  20. NorthHillsWx
    What did they predict last year?
  21. NorthHillsWx
    We now have Columbias climate.
  22. NorthHillsWx
    Jan 16, 2022 was our last 0.25” of ice. So not that long ago but it’s been exceedingly rare. We used to specialize in ice, maybe not full blown ice storms, but most systems following a cold snap would at least start as an hour or two of ice
  23. NorthHillsWx
    I remember a bad winter was one where we had 2-3 winter weather advisories for freezing rain with maybe a light snow or snow to rain scenario. I mean not even counting the snow drought, we can’t even get a glaze of ice. That used to happen multiple times a year with CAD
  24. NorthHillsWx
    When the air in our source region is running +20 we are effectively screwed
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Agreed, the first half of December was better than expected. Guess that got my hopes up when models appeared to be building on something
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