NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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ACE is a useful tool but it certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. We’ve had extremely high ACE years with barely any impacts and low ace years that we’re high impact. It also doesn’t do late blooming storms justice, like Laura. Also, you can have 1 or 2 storms produce basically an entire seasons worth of ace and then have a slow rest of the season.
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Well I don’t think anyone can complain about this hurricane season, 2020 has literally had something for everyone. If you’re a numbers person, we’re going on the “w” storm halfway through September. You like high end hurricane landfalls? Laura. You like disorganized spinny thingies with names? You’ll be set for 3 years. East coast metro hit? Isaias produced hurricane force gusts from N.C. to MA. Long track MDR storms? Paulette and Teddy. High end fish storm, watch teddy this week. Hurricane landfalls? Every single hurricane has hit land. Teddy may too. Rapid Intensification? Check. Survivalist storms? We’ve had two hit the tallest peaks in the Caribbean and STRENGTHEN after doing so. You a person who loves strengthening systems on approach? Check check check check check check. Preseason named storm? Yep. Needle in a haystack storm? Paulette making landfall on Bermuda. Slow moving epic rain producer? Sally. Ridiculous storm surge, thank you Laura. I mean, we’ve had everything for everyone!
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I’m going all in on 90L. Bathtub water, decreasing shear, unstable air mass, and location location location. SW gulf is a hotspot for quick spin ups (orientation of geography?). Given the well organized look seen this morning would not surprise me that any additional increase would lead to formation of a TD by tonight. I think 90L wins the race for “W” and I think it could also become our next hurricane. Going to be a painfully slow mover and since no vortex exists yet models have taken up almost every inch of the western gulf for possible tracks. I personally think a long northward trek into Texas is most likely, but will need a defined coc before we know anything on that front
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Yes, it’s a good thing we cancelled this season halfway through August because the globals weren’t picking up on development. I can’t imagine if this had actually turned out to be an active season!
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Teddy should get us there alone
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Honestly we may need a thread for 90L. Looks robust this morning. Models have slowly been picking up on it, albeit weak, but as we just learned: never trust a gulf system. Another slow mover that may eventually work towards the Texas coast
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Hits a brick wall
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The crazy thing about that run, well besides 3 hurricanes lined up in a row, is it doesn’t landfall any of them haha
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3 US hurricane landfalls (all strengthening on approach), one of the strongest storms to ever hit the US, and being on the “N” storm by September 1st sure doesn’t feel like a season bust!!!
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I’m anxiously watching to see what they find. This is a beautiful satellite appearance to not have a closed center. Has expanding outflow and persistent deep convection where you’d think the center should be
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99L looks healthy tonight.
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Could see 2 more named storms in the next 12-24 hours. 99L has some potential to make a run at becoming a hurricane. 90 will be a wave producer on the east coast. Both look robust at the moment for invests. Hopefully 99L continues its rapid pace of movement to decrease strengthening and also flooding issues where it makes landfall in Central America
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CMC solution of multiple TC’s in GOM at same time is quite interesting. No reason to focus on model to model runs though. Signal is there for tropical cyclone genesis and very little to no chance of recurvature with that massive blocking ridge in place. As said above, could get interesting this week.
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Based on satellite and radar, I believe we have another storm off the east coast... Here in Nags Head for the week and you wouldn’t know it. Very little swell, few rain bands moving through.
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Love people declaring the season a bust when we’ve already had over $5 billion in US damages alone, record breaking 10th named storm by August 13, more than a week ahead of 2005, and seen storms popping in even unfavorable conditions. Wait till the Atlantic gets right here in a couple weeks...
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Small low pressure formed just off the N.C. coast south of cape lookout this morning. If this had more time I’d bet we’d have a quick TS spinup again. Accompanied by 30-35 mph wind reports.
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They’ve been atrocious with storms this year. But, they do not get into the meat of the favorable period as advertised by the above posts even in their longest range.
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Yep going to get the boat off the lift in Morehead. Don’t expect anything crazy though
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Wonderful: It`s looking increasingly likely central NC will remain under the stronger influence of subtropical ridging, which will keep the majority of upper impulses north and west of the area. So what look like a fairly wet and active a few days ago, is now looking more like a typical summer day, with the Piedmont trough and strong daytime heating providing the focus for isolated to scattered convection. Cannot rule an isolated severe storm, mainly near the VA border where models show a band of enhanced shear of 25 kts. One negative aspect of the lower rain chances, is that it will be hotter, with afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 90s and heat indices back in the 102 to 105 across the central Piedmont, Sandhills and coastal plain counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.
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NAM doing NAM things this run, lol
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Whatever becomes of 92L, the weaker the system stays the further west it'll be able to go. Even if this maxes out as a weak TS, it may make its way into the Gulf before turning north. Canadian model shows this the best and would give central NC a widespread rain event. That seems to be the greatest potential impact from this system. Just too much shear and land in it's way not to mention the fact it still has not consolidated. I cannot see a path to a strong system at this point. It's also moving and forecast to remain moving extremely quick, which can make it tough to organize substantially given the initial organization, or lack there of
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System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.
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99L looks like it’s on it’s way to becoming a depression. Very much improved convection overnight
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Bathtub water in all the places where it’s most dangerous
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Looks like, in addition to being brutally hot, models have dried out significantly this week, decreasing our chances at any afternoon relief. Yesterday and today have been unbearably hot, the type of heat that you just can’t be outside in.
