NorthHillsWx

Wow, the storm this weekend has really trended west, towards the Euro solution, on the GFS from earlier runs this week. What looked like a washout may end up no rain at all in central NC. It does however stall out the boundary and re-form precipitation over the area early next week. Definitely trending towards an amped low in the MS valley for the system this weekend though

Picked up a quick 0.20" of rain yesterday afternoon. That makes over 3" for the past 2 weeks, or considerably better than it has been

Looks like a very brief window for any rain today. Still mostly cloudy and 73 degrees. Gusty wind has developed in the last hour as well

Remarkably hot. Glad to get this out of the way before the potential snow months

Saw this exact scenario on the 3k Nam for tomorrow, discrete cells then an organized line. First potential severe threat in a while.

1.80" at my house in Raleigh. I was at a hunting camp near Havelock for the weekend and we definitely had near-TS conditions. Wind much stronger than I thought it'd be inland, I'm guessing 40-45 mph range when that heavy stuff was coming through. Heavy rain too but short duration. No way to measure but probably a quick 1.5-2." Incredible how I went to bed and the temp was in the upper 50's and woke up to lower to mid 70's with the strong southeast wind.

Amazingly hit a low of 38 last night. Coldest night of the fall so far (previous low was 42). No frost yet but that wasn't far from it

0.50" yesterday, more than I was expecting for sure. Low of 44 this morning. Currently just south of 60 and absolutely gorgeous outside! Wind has kicked up some last hour

Despite the less than impressive appearance on radar reflectivity, this round of showers is producing very heavy rain rates in the Garner area. Just drove to lunch and it was borderline downpour status with heavy ponding of water on the roads and some cars slowing down with flashers on. Definitely more rain than I thought leaving the house this morning. Looks like a good soaking rain too as the light rain this morning saturated the ground. Looks like planting grass Sunday morning in the yard was the right call!

Looking at overnight and morning modeling, the potential system in the gulf, regardless of development, looks like it could bring a widespread beneficial rain to the area. Outside of a few areas east of the Triangle, this has been an underwhelming tropical rainfall season, obviously, and these systems are the ones we rely on during the dry summer months so if we can get this thing in the region I suspect some areas can make a good dent in recent rainfall deficits

Certainly a lot of shear but a lot of models are latching onto a weak system developing. This would seem to max out as one of the classic gulf half-cyclones maybe attaining low end TS winds. Good news with this system is it has its moisture aimed at the SE, a region that has dealt with significant drought issues over the summer. Recent rains along with the potential for some tropical rain would do a lot of favors for these areas.

0.08" at my house before I left for work this morning. I think 0.25" may be the max for my area looking downstream we appear to stay in the dry slot today, unfortunately. Still beneficial given the recent dryness.

0.48" IMBY. Good, steady soaking rain. Saw some lightning as well. Looks like the Wednesday system has a dry slot modeled for Central NC so this may be our largest rainfall for awhile. Greatly needed

Haha if this was a winter storm this map would be right where you'd want it the triad!

Still no drought relief on the 12z GFS but man is that a stout trough digging in at the end of the run! Would be our first chance at frost in some areas if taken verbatim...

Like a broken record, SE ridging keeps the storm track above us with coastal development too far offshore to get significant rain into the lee of the Apps. This has the markings of a significant drought for much of the Southeast. The areas of severe drought have continued to expand. With no significant change in sight, I would look for that to continue.

Picked up the first measurable rain since Dorian overnight and yesterday afternoon from the heavy mist that occurred all afternoon. A drought-busting 0.01" lol. In all seriousness it was nice to have some of the dust knocked off the truck, but wow it has been dry.

Only records we can break these days

Frontal Passage is going to be slower than initially thought, allowing much more warming than forecast a couple days ago. I feel like we've heard this before...

Still some hints of possible development in the Caribbean Sea towards the end of some model runs. The African wave train has slowed and we are getting out of the MDR season. I would focus on the Caribbean, Gulf, and Atlantic Coasts in the coming weeks, especially if some of these first fronts of the season making it through hang up over the warm waters of this area. I think we will still see a few more systems before all is said and done

I don't know if it's 100% accurate but it's by FAR the hottest temp I've ever recorded on my at-home thermometer in the shade behind my house but I hit 104 at 3:30 today... At least 100 at RDU it may not be crazy. Down to 98 now.

This would be a hot period in July, for October it's truly exceptional. Hoping and praying the cooldown comes with some rain chances. It is bone dry. On a side note, the farm got a surprise storm and what looked like .5" of rain (I don't have a guage out there, basing entirely on puddles). Also, my prediction on ducks came true today. As everything around has dried up and my farm's beaver swamps are some of the only holding good water, we almost had a 3 man limit this morning before work.

Bring on the drought of 2019... Hopefully the change to cooler includes an active coastal pattern for a soaking rain. Rain associated with frontal passages is not going to cut it. Need soaking-type rains now.

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something!