NorthHillsWx

Elsa is doing her best to to make one final run at strengthening. Some 70kt velocities showing back up last few frames, albeit at distance from Tampa. Also, a lot of lightning near coc last few frames. Definitely more organized now than at any point since it was south of Tampa

Some of the guidance actually brings the heaviest rain west of Raleigh now, your way. Looks like a good soaker for much of the Piedmont

I wouldn’t count this storm out yet. It’s literally done this every day just about since it was named. Gets going, starts to get an inner core, then gets disrupted by shear/land/dry air. It could cycle back quick with a new convective burst. Just one of those systems.

Josh chased Don too…

Honestly, the radar presentation looks like a typical afternoon sea breeze storm complex, lol. Knew this was a fragile core. Imo was definitely a hurricane multiple times earlier in the day, but absolutely not anymore

If I was in the Tampa area I’d expect gusts of around 60. On the water front gusts should be 70, maybe a few hurricane force gusts. Certainly a bad wind direction for surge issues, I can understand the 3-5’ surge forecasts

I love following tropical weather

You look to be in an excellent spot for some storm watching on this one. Stay safe and I hope your power stays on. Get some videos for us

For those in Tampa who’ve been clamoring for a hurricane on here, you’re going to get your wish. Looks like Tampa is going to get the brunt and it should be fairly long duration judging by angle of approach and the orientation of the worst weather. Obviously just a strong ts/weak hurricane, but always newsworthy when impacting a major metro area

Man, this could be an interesting day Thursday. Runs keep moving the precip shield west, as I expected, and the area east of the track looks primed for some severe weather, possibly tornadoes as we often see. Long story short: there should be some very heavy rain (3-4 in) over a swath of central NC with an increasing tornado threat in the eastern half of the state

FL winds around 75kt and surface winds around 60kt so far. Definitely on the cusp

About to make the first pass through the rough stuff. I’m thinking we get a quick update statement separate from the 2pm if they find hurricane force winds

Really thinking they’re going to find hurricane force winds in the NE quad. Looking as healthy on radar as it’s looked

Yep, pretty impressive wind values for outside the convection. With radar velocities remaining steady I think there’s a likelihood this is a very odd looking hurricane atm

Stronger more stacked cylclone= greater influence from mid level/upper level steering flow out of SW, more easterly track. Weak/exposed system= LLC riding more easterly components in low level steering flow, coc much further west Impacts for Tampa will be same regardless and likely maximized if the COC goes west of there by 20 miles bc that puts the strongest banding over the bay/city

And not one part of me would disagree unless they find definitive hurricane force winds at the time of the flight: call it what it is. I’m glad they held off, likely for the reason above, about increasing wind speeds based purely on radar data earlier. I think this storms window to be a hurricane is short. Increasing shear, decreasing oceanic heat content, and increasing influence from the eastern circulation being ashore means it has between now and when it passes offshore or near tampa to be a hurricane

Yea the radar velocities would seem to indicate that this is likely a hurricane, and if this storm continues to pull *some* convection westward enough to maintain that strong band near the center, the hurricane hunters will likely verify this is a minimal hurricane at this juncture. I’m pretty sure this is about the ceiling for Elsa though and that “eyewall” is very fragile. This will likely go through periods where the shear wins and it erodes just to have another convective burst make another attempt. In other words, she’s likely a minimal hurricane right now and I’d be expecting fluctuations in intensity through landfall though I could also see weakening once it passes Tampa and a lot of the circulation moves on land. Impacts will be the same regardless

Definitely making an attempt at a formative eyewall this hour. Wrapping some convection to the NW side of the circulation. Some pretty significant wind reports from the keys indicate it would not take a terrible amount of intensification for this to briefly become a minimal cane. Definitely would have the half-a-cane look though

It’s all east of the center, which is exposed

A lot if lightning near the center this morning. Elsa is clearly being hampered by the wind shear, and the center is partially exposed to the west of the convection. However, as it continues to pull away from cuba, and the shear vector aligns more with the forward motion, while traversing some hot water, I could see a small uptick in intensity. Likely would occur as the system moves north then north-northeast

RAH going with a wide swath of 1-3” from the western triangle eastward in NC

Qualifies as tightly clustered guidance

Remember when watching radar tonight, the MLC and SLC were NOT aligned when the storm made landfall. I think what a lot of folks are seeing as the surface low is actually the mid level rotation, noted in just about every reconnaissance flight leading to landfall

Verbatim this would be a fairly impactful storm for the Tampa bay metro area given the angle of approach, long fetch, and remaining in the strongest bands on the eastern side of the system for a long time. I could see some decent surge values and extended period of 50-70 mph gusts in this scenario, certainly nothing to scoff at for a major metro area

I’d be shocked if the triangle missed out on rain from this system given the track and angle of approach with an approaching trough that usually pulls moisture a bit north as the system interacts with it. Models have really not shown that but from experience that usually happens with tropical systems hitting the gulf coast and moving through our area, and the rain shield almost always ends up further north and west than forecast due to that interaction