NorthHillsWx

WPC not enthralled with the western tracks

True, but it looks like Elsa is going to be really the only widespread source of rain through the forecast period. Subsidence on the backside of the system will limit what the trough moving through (feature kicking the system out) can produce. Beyond Elsa, models have been showing very few features that would promote anything other than isolated storms. So if Elsa doesn’t pan out for some areas, it’s looking like a dry stretch for those places

It is down, just such an abnormally high pressure for a 50 kt storm. Has been higher than you’d expect the entire life of the system even when it was a hurricane.

Grade A+ forecast on this one, even with gigantic model disagreement for days

“Down to 1005 mb” sounds like a typo

If the remnants of Elsa miss us to the east this will not come true

Elsa’s moment has come and gone. Going to take too much time given the poor convective envelope to organize and increase the intensity. It does seem to have become a much larger circulation so I bet it maintains through Cuba. Mid grade tropical storm for Florida

The development of an inflow channel on the south side of the system is a good sign of continued organization. Still a long way to go but this is the look of another intensifying phase

It does appear to have a nice burst of convection over the center, and maybe slightly less of the popcorn look. Let’s see if can maintain and we see corresponding pressure falls and contraction of the wind field. I’m still surprised to see a pressure above 1005 mb, meaning this thing has a lot of work to do and not much time to do it

Just off the northeastern coast of Jamaica

Shewww, that’s a disorganized system per recon. High pressure, and all significant wind located far away in eastern semicircle. Was not really expecting that, in fact I was wondering if their wind sensors were malfunctioning. Not sure exactly what is inhibiting Elsa this morning but it may open into a trough after landfall in Cubs if it can’t get it’s act together before then. That’s a storm on life support, despite what looked like a better sat presentation

Recon didn’t find anything over 50 kts flight level winds on first pass but it was not in the northeastern quad. Definitely extremely weak in the western and southern part of the circulation. If this thing hits land in this state I’d expect it to open up rather quickly

I’m sure the folks in Barbados were caught a little off guard with how strong Elsa was when passing the island. Getting sustained hurricane force winds actually measured on land rarely happens even with some stronger land falling canes, not to mention several gusts over 85. No doubt a good blow down there

I know Elsa is struggling and likely to continue to do so while dealing with shear, forward speed, and land issues, but most models do show some impact for the Carolinas. At a minimum it looks like some good rains for the area, but some models like the Canadian actually reform the center east of Florida and bring a strengthening tropical system ashore in the Carolinas. Something to watch at least

As expected, recon is finding a much weaker storm and higher pressure

Faded while moving over me. Only picked up an additional 0.13” for a storm and July total of 1.31”

Is this the same storm we were watching yesterday? Similar appearance to Isaias last season east of Florida when it completely collapsed for a period. Models have really trended weaker too and maximized land interaction. Me thinks this storm will be a mid grade TS as most when it impacts Florida

Mid level shear/rapid forward progress is winning. All of the strides Elsa made earlier in the day at forming an inner core has been erased

Hurricane Elsa really reminds me of hurricane Nate whereas they were both in favorable environments but forward speed capped their development as they struggled to keep fully vertically stacked over time. Similar satellite presentations as well. I think Elsa should maintain current intensity up until the islands and I doubt she’ll strengthen much more given the rapid forward speed. Beyond that, land impacts and shear (GFS greatly increased the shear after the system interacts with Hispaniola) will clearly be the driving factors intensity wise. Pretty potent little mdr system for this early in the season and I’m truly impressed it strengthened into a bona fide hurricane in the eastern Caribbean

Storm total of 1.18” here. Looks to be done unless something develops in the subsidence. One interesting thing is many models predicted it’d rain through tonight and into tomorrow. This thing moved through in a hurry

The storm has impressive upper level outflow in basically all quadrants

Can already tell where today’s going: currently 77 with a sultry dew point of 75. Looks to be a dry, hot, and excessively humid end to June. Likely going to end the month at 6.21” which has done wonders to help alleviate the dry conditions following our rainless spring

Remnants of Danny looking remarkably well organized over Alabama this morning

Every now and then you get lucky Edit: Ended with an unexpected 0.18” today, up to 6.21” for June