dallen7908

Actually, 10% of the members give DC > 3". The 4% value was for this morning's run. The value 24-hours ago was also 10%. Still in the noise ...

... hopefully we'll be reading the following soon ... 'The models are converging on the extreme solution ..." I remember reading that once before but can't recall when ...

The only thing better than living in a FV3 world is living in a FV3 Day-10 world. Bring it on ... FWIW, 4% of the EPS members give the forum >3" of snow during the next 10 days

Certainly the performance of the FV3 has been the biggest disappointment this past winter season. It is still scheduled to come on-line at the end of this month? If yes, can they fix their wintry precipitation algorithm by next December?

12% of 12 UT EPS members give our area > 3" of snow/sleet from this hypothetical system; an increase from the 8% at 00 UT. If this "trend" continues for a few more cycles perhaps showmethesnow will re-up his weathermodels subscription!

As part of my snow chase this winter, I took a Mt. Washington snow coach https://www.greatglentrails.com/snowcoach-2 to ~4300 feet and snowshoed down -- in a snow storm! On the way down, saw guys from Campbell Scientific testing instruments they hope to install on Mt. Everest. https://share.icloud.com/photos/0RoVoV-dq8xgKuJp_HisVdpkA I also parked on the edge of the road near the Appalachian Mountain club (just south of Mt. Washington) and snowshoed down to a Glen Ellis falls overlook. At the AMC, I saw several rugged looking men and women sporting snow picks who were returning from the summit. Other activities for the week included a moonlight snow shoe hike XC skiing at Jackson, MVC, Omni Mountain Washington Resort, and Bear Notch. Horse drawn sleigh rides at Nestlenook Farm and the Ice Castles. https://icecastles.com I encourage everyone to plan a winter trip to northern New England or the west next year. Tracking Mt. Washington's weather is much more enjoyable than tracking the weather here. It snowed on 2 of the 5 days I was there, and we only got stuck once.

Euro tracks our storm over the Grand Bahamas or about 1400 km south of where we want it

EPS snow fall mean over the next 15 days is ~0.3" for College Park. Even the 95th% ensemble member gives us < 1". GEFS snow fall mean over the next 16 days is between 0.5 and 1.0" for our area. However, the 06 UT GFS gives I-70 south T-2" of snow in the 5-6 day time frame as a weak clipper tries to intensify off the coast.

Yes still a wide range of solutions over a 3-4 day window with various models tracking "our" storm through central Florida before going out to sea (e.g. GFS), giving us a glancing blow (CMC), snowing on Mt. Mitchell hikers (FV3-GFS) sending wind, snow, and/or rain to Halifax (Euro).

Cool air would be long gone even if that storm were to move up the coast. Need the wave from 3-days prior to amplify.

How can we give up when 66% of this morning's EPS members give Westminster > 1" of snow over the next 15 days!

The south-southeasterly flow at the surface will certainly keep expectations in check.

EPS mean snowfall over the next 15 days for College Park is 0.7" - time to close up shop or should we hope for a mid- to late-March fluke?

Well we're three year removed from the last leap year ... so if it is going to happen ... I consider the March 1st - 10th period a prime snow period for this area.

I don't believe College Park has reached the 1" threshold yet during the current period unless you assume a 10:1 snow/precip ratio for last night's snow/sleet. Last update for the current time period: Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" through 7 PM March 6th ... and now those of us an hours drive or more south of the MD/PA border shift most of our focus to March 8th and the 10/11th.

For far northern MD folks such as you the current EPS "odds" are 100% (>1"), 70% (>3"), 30% (>6"), and 2%(>12") through 7 PM on the 6th.

Percent to EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet during period ending 7 PM March 6th. With light snow on the way for much of the forum, this is the last update for this period -- at least until verification

Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet over the period ending at 7 PM on March 6th. The most noticeable change is the increase in the chances of > 6" (mentioned by Showmethesnow above). Pretty solid N-S gradient on the 6" chances: 20% for College Park; 40% for Westminster, MD; 64% for York, PA (hopefully I have the station names correct)

What I'd give to live in a day 10-12 Euro climate

Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow through 7 PM March 6th

Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 1, 3, 6, and 12" over the period ending at 7 PM on March 6th. Note: Latest odds" of exceeding 1" and 3" near the MD/PA border are considerably higher: 80 and 46%, respectively.

Big dog(s) less likely; Percent of EPS members giving College Park > 1, 3, 6, and 12" during the next 8 1/2 days

Percent of EPS members giving College Park more than 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet over the next 9 days Looks like the multiple threats are buffering the volatility

Don’t knock April blizzards I’m pretty sure the April 8/9 blizzard in 1973 is why I’m a meteorologist today Of course that was northeastern Iowa Still remember being surprised when our pigs walked over the fence and into our garden And only being allowed outside when attached to a rope

Percent of EPS members giving College Park snow during next 9 1/2 days