Stevo6899

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

Normally I would be concerned about not having the euro on my side but the euro was really bad and overamped on several occasions the past few winters. We haven't seen a storm like this in years and the trend has been SE and not as wound up. With that being said, this has ghd written all over it and overdue for a nw trend/bomb like this. In a strong el nino winter, the last thing I thought I'd have to worry about is a low tracking overhead.

I think this a good visual reminder about models this far out.

Me in a week when I hear sleet pinging off the windows...

As always we gotta let that first system roll through before we can even get excited about this one. First wave is trending drier and weaker which might allow for of a nw track with this one.

First storm stays SE and east coast gets a pretty solid snowstorm. Moves out quick which allows heights to rise in the middle of the country for the next system to go NW. The euro intensifies the second system but it moves ENE instead of shooting nw of chicago, which you usually see with a strenghtneing low below 980 in missouri. Perhaps blocking?

What a wild rollercoaster it has been. I remember some winters in the past 10 where it seemed to snow almost everyday in the winter. It seems when we get into a certain pattern, it's hard to break it, even more-so when were in a warm pattern in the winter like we currently are. Luckily when we get arctic blasts <15 degrees as highs, they don't usually last longer than a week. It would be nice to have a snowy December for once as it sets the tone for the winter. It sucks having to wait this long for decent snow lol.

In other words, alek appreciates and thanks you for taking the time to post your analysis ohweather. I echo his sentiments.

Apologies if someone else has asked you this recently, but is this the first Christmas you wont have full snow cover?

Mid 50s Christmas day, while we didn't get outta the teens last Christmas. It was only in the 30s today but with the sun out it felt alot warmer. Definitly feels weird.

Yea im still a weenie at heart and will hop on a plane from Florida to Detroit for a snow event. Hate the cold, but love snowstorms lol.

As long as it's not a snow noreaster for I95 cities..

As long as it's not a noreaster for I95 cities...

Yea, it seems El Nino is definitly flexing its muscles, as it's been stormy down there this month. The last few winters it seemed like it would rain once a month down there, especially la nina winters. It's too bad when we get favorable la ninas, it seems the tele's wreak havoc and mess up a potentially good/snowy winter. I dont know much about them but id guess they are not affecting el nino or its tendencies so far this nov/dec.

It's interesting that it's gonna be avg or slightly below avg temp wise down in sw Florida. Having lived there the past 4 winters, it's been normal for temps to be in the 80s for weeks in djf. It's just odd to see temps above avg in metro detroit, in mid/upper 40s, while at the same time it's barely cracking 70 down in south florida.

I wonder if we'll see any snowmaps in our region this winter that look like western maine/into canada the next 48 hours...

I guess I shouldn't be surprised to see some cloud to ground lightning in my backyard before snow in December in a El Nino winter. Storms developed right overhead...

Instead of upper midwest, I should've said further east into Wisconsin and u.p. where models for a few days were showing decent snows there, now just rain lol. But yea atleast someone is seeing snow. If it ain't gonna snow, I'll take days like today in the 50s. Sun felt great.

What makes it even worse/funnier is that it doesn't even look like the leading wave is gonna produce any snow for the upper midwest either as even thats turned into a strung out mess. Usually for us in Chicago/detroit, minneapolis and upper midwest gotta get their snow first as they see the colder temps earlier.

Potential secondaries and low pressures riding along the front are always tough to forecast. Gets wrapped up a lil too late for anything significant for most of us.

I think the clipper/system out ahead of it is key. The slower that is to move along, the more east the main show will be.

Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol.

josh's criteria for heavy is different than ours....

Gfs looking kinda clipperish in the long range...

I guess it makes me feel a little better to see a rain storm fizzle as it heads NE, as it occurs often in the winter. The radar this morning looked Impressive in NE Indiana and by the time it got up to metro detroit, it was just light showers.