Stevo6899

Some of the models have a sharp cut off east of 75. Like 10 inches in the hills oakland county, and like an inch of slop east into macomb. Shall be interesting.

Is anybody in here from ames? This is the second storm in a row that they have been in a killer def band. It's 17 and heavy snow. Wonder what the ratios are out there.

18z rgem not as wound up. It keeps showing all snow for dtw for awhile. Skeptical but if rates can stay heavy, maybe dynamic cooling can deliver.

As much as I want it to happen. I don't recall the last time we were on the east side of a low this strong, and it remained snow for more than an hour or two. Could be ripping for an hour or two if dynamic cooling occurs and I guess we'll have to take it. Hopefully the arctic crap behind it doesnt last too long. The 12z euro snowmap perfectly illustrates the history of how detroit is so close to big snows. Sure the city gets 10+ storms maybe every couple years but the amount that turns out like this one is far greater, maybe 4:1.

I'm not saying we're gonna jackpot but the rgem actually has higher qpf over towards to dtw, albeit shitty ratios. I also think models may be overdoing the strenghth. Rgem has been pretty consistent. Alot can change in 48 hours.

Dtw crew would take the 18z rgem and run. Not as wound up and east.

We always rip on dtx but grr is probably as bad if not worse regards to issuing headlines on time lol. I always enjoy their afd's and discussions which makes it weird.

Yea my gut is telling me the models are overdoing it with the strength. I think the 12z Canadian is more realistic. I think grr over to flint and up to mount pleasant will be the jackpot. Detroit may see a few sloppy inches.

As stated last week, road trip to cmu. 10-20 inches. Bummer to miss out on 2 respectable events in 4 days. It's too bad this midweek storm couldn't pull down more cold air like this weekend one is. Cold and no snowcover, gross.

Rgem basically ends up in the same spot as tonight's low, sub 980. Pretty remarkable. I can't remember the last time we've had two storms of this strength in a span of 4 days. Every model today has strenghtnened the low and gone NW. Are they overdoing it? Also being so close to the low per rgem, I'm not sure I buy there not being a dry slot into michigan.

Even sexier on the rgem, however it was SE with this current storm at this range so who knows at this point. Ukie/euro way nw. Also the deformation snows look to be very tight and close to the low which hopefully will keep the dry slot away, that the euro/ukie show.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised that the nam is in the amped euro camp.

Yea I dont know his history of where he's lived or for how long. I know he recently moved to Dallas but its not believable to have 10 hours of pingers no matter the location. insert middle finger emoji.

I am not your sweet summer child and I dunno what 10 hours you are referring to lol. While detroit always seems to get in on pingers, I don't recall having 10 hours of it. I remember ghd 11 was a few hours.

I think it can be misleading regarding the strength of these lows. I am no expert but the gfs just has the storm getting its act together later than the euro. It isn't necessarily weaker when it comes to the precip. A strengthening low down to 980 can still produce the same kind of deformation band as a 970 low. The difference however is the speed and whether the low closes off. Now I don't know if a 970 low is more likely to close off than a 980 low. It looks like to me the gfs is more progressive with the wave and doesn't close it off (neg tilt) like the euro may, thus less snow amounts than it could produce if it closed off and slowed down a bit. I'd imagine lows are more likely to close off and go neg tilt when there's phasing involved like GHD 2011. Today's storm looks like it may be going neg tilt and its only a 985/980 low. I need to educate myself more on the detailed maps and not just look at the precip maps. I do however appreciate when more educated people give their analysis on here.

12z rgem looks euroish with a low strengthening alot sooner than the gfs/nam. Extrapolated it would be sexy for chitown, N indiana, into western part of Michigan. Sort of. It slowly slides east as it hits the block. 12+ hours of mod/heavy snow. I'd imagine ratios would be above 10:1 in the defo band with this one.

Automatic F grade for winter when you hear pingers bouncing off your windows. For those receiving snow today, enjoy it

GFS pretty consistent on the heavy band in Indiana/Michigan. Don't usually like to be hoping for a SE jog, and rather be on the NW fringes, but detroit only a few counties away from the band. Heartbreaking cutoff.

Tbh this is how it feels for almost every storm. The models are good for highlighting the potential snow amounts, but where the bands setup always comes down to nowcasting.

I didn't think this thing would come SE like it did on the euro. Models struggling, and need this current low to roll through before they hone in on some consistency.

Yea I hear ya. At the end of the day, this is rehashed every winter. Some are okay with mediocrity and thats cool. The fact we've had nothing so far this winter doesnt alter anything for me. I want a big dog but I know it's hard for detroit to get one. We need a strong low to take a favorable track to our SE, and it needs to be strong enough not to allow a transfer to the coast. It's hard to get that based on our location and our history with the lack of big dogs portays this. Detroit needs a hooker dig and not strengthen until its a bit further east than this potential, or a gulf low that rides west of the apps. The potential issue with this storm is what the canadian is showing. The block halts the low, occluded, and transfers to the coast. That's not the recipe for a big dog. With that being said I know I should be grateful for what we get but I'm just a 40 yr old weenie at heart.

Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

Yea still a bit to go but just going on past experiences. With a strenghtneing low coming out of arkansas, its not unusual for a low to go NNE, especially if the models are handling the strenghtneing right. Hoping for the best but just being realistic that's all. Maybe the models are overdoing the strength. I'm okay with making a few hour drive to experience it on a weekend.

History says once a nw trend is alive, ride it. You'd think this midweek storm would suppress the next one a lil bit more....