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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us.
  2. Kmlwx
    Total gut feeling (no science involved) but it feels like the stretch of days where a few people get absolutely smoked by a wind damage core or two and the rest of us maybe hear distant thunder or see mostly sunny skies.
  3. Kmlwx
    Day 2 marginal, Day 3 marginal and day 4 15%
  4. Kmlwx
    And yeah a deep trough to our west would be a recipe for potential action for sure!
  5. Kmlwx
    The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads.
  6. Kmlwx
    For now it's a pretty broad brushed area - definitely could (when is it not?) be a scenario of many losers and few winners.
  7. Kmlwx
    CIPS is also fairly supportive of some sort of threat at the end of the week. CIPS extended range remains supportive for severe as well way out into the long range.
  8. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP likes both Thursday and Friday
  9. Kmlwx
    Was only like 10% monitoring today. Impressive to the NW. We'll see if it does anything here. I'm over in Odenton this weekend.
  10. Kmlwx
    Imagine if we flip to a wet pattern and then somehow with a quiet tropical season still get slow moving remnants over us later in the season...
  11. Kmlwx
    Wind signature near The Plains.
  12. Kmlwx
    I always "forget" - but lightning is SUCH a good indicator a lot of times in terms of how a storm is trending. The one well NW of Luray has COPIOUS lightning with it.
  13. Kmlwx
    Watching the stuff to the west of Front Royal/Luray areas for the greater DC area later.
  14. Kmlwx
    The 6z NAM and NAM nest on the site I'm looking at have storms.
  15. Kmlwx
    Original spot ended up being closed after I drive out there this morning. Thought I was going to get scraps around the mall area. Got some great shots instead! Glad I didn't rage quit and go home. Toasty out there earlier, though...not looking forward to months of hazy, humid heat...;
  16. Kmlwx
    Central MD special Now if only I trusted the RGEM at this range more.
  17. Kmlwx
    Even the lower CSU is still in the 15% range for wind. Given how boring things have been - I'll take it for some thunderstorm activity!
  18. Kmlwx
    Yeah for sure - I mean am I right in saying that it is mostly attributed to the "doldrums" of summer and just weaker overall systems later in summer? At least spring/very early summer you can still get some dynamic systems with big temperature swings behind fronts and such. I will say - sometimes you will (like you said) get an isolated event that has an absolutely destructive microburst in the area - if that happens in a populated area that can be a "signature event" for some people for a given year.
  19. Kmlwx
    Time is freaking FLYING.
  20. Kmlwx
    Boring, allergy-laden weather, lovely…fire danger increasing too
  21. Kmlwx
    That report shows "wind gusts estimated 65-70mph" in the LSR on GR2AE. Not sure why the numerical value is 81mph. Also not sure which line to believe lol.
  22. Kmlwx
    I thought CIG was "reasonable max intensity" not "this is what we expect"? Given that DCA gusted to 68mph - that's right up there and not sure an additional 7mph would have caused a appreciable difference in damage. But not sure.
  23. Kmlwx
    I was kind of shocked that they didn't include one more tier west of counties. I guess they were relying heavily on the boiler plate "in AND around the watch area"
  24. Kmlwx
    It's looking like a ton of sites verified severe criteria wind
  25. Kmlwx
    ANDREWS AFB,MD (ADW) ASOS reports gust of 51 knots (58.7 mph) from WNW @ 0128Z -- KADW 170128Z 30038G51KT 5SM +RA SQ SCT015 BKN024 OVC031 09/04 A2939 RMK BKN V SCT CIG 022 RWY01L PRESRR SLP959 $
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