Kmlwx
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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Surprised there's not a pity meso yet with all the pop up general showers and storms around.
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Should be a bit faster moving so that might be one thing that prevents massive flooding. Reflectivity on some of the model output looks good - but yeah seems like an isolated day for actual severe.
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Calm down you two.
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Wasn't speaking for location specifics - more the fact that each time I've looked at them this year they've shown like tiny little cells or nothing at all for most of our events.
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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-arw®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019071012&fh=6 one of 'em
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Just peaked at them over on the TropicalTidbits site. Only had time to give them a quick glance. Work is blech today.
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Some of the CAMs like the ARW/ARW2/NMM - which have looked pretty weak sauce for prior events this year - look QUITE robust for the region tomorrow.
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Marginally I guess for now. I don't think it'll be an outbreak. Probably just higher than 50/50 odds of any location getting a boomer.
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The long range HRRR from 12z is VERY good for our area for tomorrow.
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Slight risk posted for tomorrow.
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Thank goodness this cluster is moving a bit - I remember in June 2006 it would just keep training. The rates are crazy this morning.
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That was not fun to drive through. I was heading west from Colesville to Potomac/Rockville. Tons of standing water.
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There was some talk of a potential ring of fire pattern in the long range. I haven't looked at it too much - have been busy.
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I didn't say they did... Look at the radar - it's not unrealistic to say that it's possible for Ellicott City to get stuck under training storms or stationary storms. A few hours of that would easily cause major flooding issues for them.
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Ellicott City has to be nervous on a day like today.
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Although... Let's shoot for a moderate with the evening SPC update
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Perhaps - but it certainly isn't going to be a derecho.
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We'll have to hope for boundaries to touch off more activity.
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HRRR seems to have a comically bad handle on the present convection in PA
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Satellite indicated!
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Yeah that had been well modeled too from guidance earlier in the day.
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There hasn't been any associated increase on CIPS or anything yet.
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Does seem we could go into a NW flow threat in a bit. That could make for some nice opportunity if things setup properly and timing works out. Won't hold my breath for now.
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Things look good for some storms tomorrow PM. If the main line on the models was a bit faster we'd be in great shape. Seems most models have some cells out front and then a dying line around 02-04z
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Haven't looked yet - ring of fire?
