Kmlwx

H5 seems closer to being closed off at 72 than the 0z run. By a bit - nothing huge again.

I'm out to 60 on Pivotal right now. I don't see any massive changes. Just the usual noise it seems. But I only glanced.

Really a battle of the models. Getting close to being under that 100hr mark too. We'll see if the Americans or the Euro people win.

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year.

Yep - initial slug looks great and then it dryslots.

Also low key kind of impressed that that signature is shown in an ensemble mean from this far out. Makes it a bit more believable.

The blocking is easing/breaking down. It seems as though it will probably recycle and give us another round of blocking in February. But that is not the same as this last round of blocking.

It'll wait until Tuesday or Wednesday to rug pull.

The high resolution/short term models have a tapering off and then some sleet/freezing rain with the subsequent slug.

Don't lie to us - it's definitely locked in, right?

Radar looks JUICY down in VA.

If only we could lock that in now. At least it's under 200 hours away....

Sounds like less pingers now - but I can see some flakes. Perhaps a touch of sleet and then rain/snow mix.

Getting rain and sleet in Colesville, MD right now. Remember to submit your reports using mPING!

@dtk would be a good one to ask too, I think. To be honest I'm calling BS preliminarily as well. 30 hours to adjust? Why wouldn't it be 24? Or 12?

It's run at the ensemble resolution not the op resolution.

@psuhoffman - There are young people in here! Good lord. That is a beautiful map.

This far out - thermals are the least concern. I think we should all be looking at the H5 pattern and how it matches or doesn't match with the surface result. Inside of 120 we can start sweating thermals. Not saying we won't have temp issues - but remember - the best storms usually do have their share of mixing and thermal problems. We'll see. Too early for now.

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? This is for the Tue/Wed event.

Sun angle still melts the snow with alarming speed even in late December if the sun is out right after a snow event. Definitely not challenging you - so hope you're not taking it that way. My point is, the only tried and true way to get "long lasting" snow cover is either to get a huge quantity of snow, or some sort of "cap" on the snow cover like a sleet or ice layer. I've even seen snow melt during the day with temps at like 25 or below if the sun is out. Give me January, big snow storm, no big warm up right after and a sleety storm to top it off. 1-3" will be gone quick unless you time a vodka cold airmass right after it.

My target for snow is Jan-Feb. Sun angle is not the huge deal that many people make it out to be. January is our climo coldest period, and February has a higher probability of the huge HECS type storms. Don't get me wrong, I love December snow too - but we can accumulate fine in January and into February with heavy snow - and it will even stick around for a while if it's a big enough storm and isn't followed quickly by 60-70 degree temps. Helps if there's a nice crusty layer on top of course. Not directed at you - but I think people forget easily that lowest sun angle does not equal climo coldest. Just like how June 21st is not our climo warmest day of the year.

You're entire "persona" on here has gotten about as old as it can possibly get. Global models are not going to have a good handle on individual storms until there is some sort of actual center of circulation - and even then they can struggle. Nobody on this forum needs you posting the same crap on an hourly basis. It's global models - they might show a storm today and won't tomorrow. In the end - there might be a monster or a piece of crap exposed center. If you're truly a "weather enthusiast" you should really try to absorb some of the excellent posts on here from meteorologists and non-trolls. Posting a little less and taking in some of the knowledge is great advice.

Just looked at the CFS and Cansips on the TT site for giggles. Both seem to show positive height anomalies over us for all of winter. Next.

Remember this day so vividly. Hard to believe it's been this long...