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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    I have no opinion yet. But it's been there a bit off and on - on the guidance. Wouldn't expect anything like today at this range.
  2. Kmlwx
    Don't get me wrong - June and July can still be fierce...but the fail potential is a lot higher. We tend to do pulse severe (isolated) in later June and July. The time of year we are in right now is great for severe if we can get the stars to align. We still benefit I guess from shorter wavelengths and somewhat more potent low pressure systems. Absolutely NO scientific backing here - but after today I feel pretty good about some good chances at severe as we head towards summer. Now if only we can track some Mid-Atlantic tropical trouble in fall. Add a decent December snow and we'll have had it all
  3. Kmlwx
    100% agree. There were definitely similarities. That one was (as you said) way more intense/widespread but this one definitely had shades of that. That one (rightfully) was a moderate risk in our area.
  4. Kmlwx
    The one thing about earlier season events is they can have a lot more shear to work with.
  5. Kmlwx
    Yeah - I mean beyond the two wind cores (Columbia and Downtown DC) this wasn't a widespread derecho-style damaging wind event. Nonetheless, it definitely wasn't as meager as it could have been. Really decent event considering the bust potential. SPC was a bit too north with their enhanced perhaps. Great work by them though maintaining the 30% wind when they could have dialed it back to 15%. This event was a "win" - glad there were no injuries in the Columbia house.
  6. Kmlwx
    Heard on the news the storm survey team will be out there.
  7. Kmlwx
    Almost looks like serial bow echos (not using the D-word as it doesn't meet the criteria) - but with the Columbia bow and now the DC one. Cool radar signature.
  8. Kmlwx
    This is going to stabilize us pretty good. HRRR says nothing after. Which is fine by me - this was a GREAT event for our area.
  9. Kmlwx
    It BLEW up once it hit the instability tongue. Good shear, halfway decent lapse rates - What a day. This is going to go down as one of the better events in recent memory. Lots of damage reports into EOC?
  10. Kmlwx
    I'd say based on the number of damage reports, this is going to be a verified ENH. A bit south of where the main area was outlooked. Any ground truth from Columbia?
  11. Kmlwx
    This is reminiscent of the "classic" solid lines of storms that some of us have discussed as being less common than in the 90s and earlier 2000s.
  12. Kmlwx
    UMD did something similar a few years back. Turns out they didn't use NWS warnings but used the Accuweather service instead.
  13. Kmlwx
    Well..if that was a TOR on the ground it went right over my apartment
  14. Kmlwx
    Howard County cell might have 80mph winds with it based on velocity. Looks like easily 65mph+ based on velocity.
  15. Kmlwx
    Howard County is getting pounded according to radar. I'm seeing sime 60kt+ readings.
  16. Kmlwx
    Radar shows big wind nearing Dayton, MD
  17. Kmlwx
    Doesn't look all that wound up so far.
  18. Kmlwx
    Is that a hint of a notch south of Point of Rocks?
  19. Kmlwx
    Echo tops have really started to come up.
  20. Kmlwx
    If you believe the HRRR past two runs, the warned part of the line could grow upscale and deliver a decent hit to the area between DC and Balt. But HRRR could bust from 1-4 hours out.
  21. Kmlwx
    First warning out.
  22. Kmlwx
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0750.html
  23. Kmlwx
    60 percent chance of a watch for portions of the area and to the north.
  24. Kmlwx
    Tracking something like June 4, 2008 again would be a treat. I remember watching the event start to unfold at lunch and in my 6th period class where I had access to a computer. Sprinted home through the woods (I lived close) after school to fire up all of my radar programs (I had StormLab at the time). I was a total weenie back in 2008...
  25. Kmlwx
    CIPS still is suggestive of more chances at severe coming. Pretty good analog signal for some severe at the 168hr mark on the extended analogs. There should be chances over the next week or two...whether they result in anything of significance remains to be seen.
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