Kmlwx

Out of my subforum - but just an FYI - looks like there was an error. The outlook was amended about 1hr after being issued. Larger extent to risk area in your region.

WRF-NSSL run looks very robust for our area. Link below - several models on this page, in fact. https://cams.nssl.noaa.gov/?model=wrf_nssl_3km&rd=20200412&rt=0000&product=sbcape&sector=spc_ma&postage_stamp=false

Huh? Entire area is under a slight risk with ENH not far away. Outlook was amended about 1 hour after issuance.

0z HREF has ensemble mean 850mb winds of 75 knots around the area on Mon.

LWX in their AM discussion was indicating only wind advisories for most of the area. HWW confined to ridge tops. NAM (06z) still has crazy winds at the 850 and 925 levels. NAM nest has surface wind gusts to 65mph almost area wide.

They amended the D2. Weird

Some of our big severe days do seem to have a morning round. But this is a lot. I wonder if it'll get some clarity and focus more on one of the rounds in future runs. IF the models still look like this at 12z tomorrow I'm going to really start honking. @Eskimo Joe - you're looking at 0z tomorrow night, right?

We would probably do just fine even with 1000 CAPE. We've had days of 500-750 do fine with high shear.

Some of these forecast soundings are edging closer to 2000 SBCAPE...

This run is pretty bonkers...Decent amount of SIG TOR results coming back in the SARS box too. That CAPE has gotta be overdone you'd think.

Posts tell the whole story. Big day tomorrow in the southeast. Maybe a decent severe day for us Monday. We'll see!

Yoda...the 0z NAM runs at like 10pm. That's not that wild I'll catch the new D2 tomorrow morning. I jinx things when I stay up.

Holy cow - GFS has a pocket of 68kt winds at 925mb around 15z Monday. 70-75 isn't far away either. Pockets of 80-85kts at the 850 level. Offshore of NJ at 18z Monday - the 850 winds are like 110kts on the GFS.

The wind just off the surface is so impressive. I honestly might be more impressed by that than any severe parameters for us

15z SREF Tor Ingredients product has the 45 line kissing DC. That's an improvement from the prior run. @Eskimo Joe - I don't see s hitting moderate for this event. The closest I see a moderate getting is potentially to RIC. I see our ceiling in terms of the SPC scale at ENH. But that's not to say Mon won't be a fun day - it certainly could be. Although.....imagine if the models juice things up all the way to game time. I think I've just become way more conservative with weather since my debut on the forums in 2006.

NAM nest is pretty tame with winds behind the line it looks like. But even outside of sig storms AHEAD of the line, the model shows gusts over 50 knots in big parts of our area. That's HWW criteria. Going to be some power outages with that.

NAM nest sends a line through at 17-20z. That's about as good as we can get for this event. I'll be intrigued to see what the models show for synoptic wind after the front too.

I'm guessing the GFS will (as always) spit out substantially lower CAPE values. Compromise in the middle would still be an active day. We seldom hit our "ceilings" on events - and I doubt we hit the ceiling on this one as well. But as CWG said...could be a turbulent morning/afternoon.

50-55 knots of wind at 925mb still at 18z on Monday per the 12k NAM 75 knots at the 850mb level around DC at the same time. There's 90+kt 850 winds on the Eastern Shore at that time...

There appears to have been a bit of a tendency to fatten up the CAPE a bit too on the soundings. Not a ton - but it had the "tall skinny" look a bit and it looks wider now.

18z NAM (looking at the 12km right now) is a bit slower it seems. It's pushing the nose of instability through the area between like 17z and 21z.

Now we wait for the inevitable NAM run or HRRR run that socks us in and has like 3J/kg of CAPR

Yes LWX indicates high wind watches are likely coming. Especially for ridge tops and Northern Maryland

I don't like when SPC is upgrading so early. Recipe for a superstitious bust lol

I could see mod for them. Not sure we'll be any higher than slight until uncertainty is less