Kmlwx

@Maestrobjwa - Gotta say - you've come leaps and bounds from prior years. I hope the new guy can follow the same path...

Just now, Deck Pic said:

sometimes we all domino.  And everyone starts around the same time

True - though often that's when it comes in SUPER fiercely like a wall. 

The hand-wringing about it not snowing yet is always so predictable. Timing is fine...

1 minute ago, bncho said:

u cannot make this shit up. stupid dc snow hole.

It's filling in. It's well on schedule. Relax! Part of the column is extremely dry.

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

LSR?

Local Storm Report

PWS says I am at 29.1/21.2 (Colesville, MD) Obviously nothing happening here as of yet. Debating napping for a few hours or just staying up all night. 

Checking with the infrared thermometer on the grass and walkway shows surface/ground temps in the mid to upper 20s IMBY. Should have instant stickage. Didn't venture down to the street though. Lots of salt on it from the other day. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Did you mean MD route 32? I checked, it runs north-south, so its kinda confusing

Probably meant the eastern part of 32 where it's a bit more E/W ish

1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:

Haven't experienced thundersnow in over a decade. Have NEVER experienced a "snow squall warning" living in NoVA in 30+ years. What an awesome friggin' event this afternoon!! Had 3 or 4 flashes of lightning AND big thunder! Now I can die a happy wx nerd.    Here's my unfiltered album link with pics/video, from literally the last 15 minutes of this event...unbelieveable!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/FGi4LL6YxgTQFLDf6

The "Snow Squall Warning" product wasn't operational until 2018. Previously it would be handled by SWS or WWA under some conditions. 

Burst of snow and down to 33.4 

Little dusting trying to form on the grass and dirt.

36.3 here in Colesville. Got pretty dark but not much of note yet. Looks like a heavy burst might be on the doorstep looking at radar. 

Just now, mappy said:

bumping for those who forget this thread exists. 

Reeeeeeeeeal subtle @mappy  

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Dude tried to argue me down without even fucking checking the soundings.  Like, what?!?!

You know me....always trying to be that "friendly" nudge to the influx of posters each year. I can't help it  

Good thing you guys never made me a mod or I'd probably go scorched Earth at times, though  

@bncho friendly nudge again. Absorb info - no shame in that! We've all been enthusiastic weather folks. Your post per day average is SKYROCKETING. It's not a race to see who can post the most frequently. Every time I see you post your post count has jumped a ton. 

Meteorology is such a nuanced science - learned long ago that maps don't tell the full story. Arguing back and forth with long term forum members and/or mets isn't going to gain you much camaraderie on here. 

We are all excited about the possibility of a snowstorm - posting more times won't "lock it in" or anything. As much as we joke about jinxing things and juju - our weather forum has no impact on real world weather. 

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Yes there is? Hour 93 there's sleet, and after heavy snow for 6 hours or so we turn into sleet and freezing rain again. 

Are you using p-type maps or soundings? sometimes the p-type maps vary depending on how they are calculated (even from website to website). You need to look at soundings. It might get close if rates are vey low but look above at red tagger posts. 

Just now, bncho said:

There's a period of a few hours before turning back into snow

Are you using soundings or just p-type maps? 

A dry slot is sort of a loose term to describe an area that is less hospitable to precipitation. 

@stormtracker just needs to declare Storm Mode and just put us all out of our misery. 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

This winter was expected to be a bum. Now we might be looking at AN snowfall and BN temps.

It is absolutely too early to be discussing seasonal temp results when astronomical winter started like 11 days ago. And seasonal precip too for that matter. 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

I hate being a B about it and it’s our first real storm minus minor events we’ve seen, so I get it. Everyone is giddy and ready. But oooof some terrible analysis going on by some. 

I mean let's just be honest - the "it's been a while" excuse holds true just a tiny bit. We'd have the same issue if we had an incoming storm after seeing 20 inches. I keep trying to stress too that I'm not trying to be "better" than the newbies. But it's totally speaking from PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. It does take some willpower to not post as much - but it pays dividends. 

Or heck...maybe a minimum character/word count. While it's still possible to s**t post a longer post - it takes more effort. The difference between "Looks tasty" versus "At hour x, the shortwave responsible for our storm looks a bit stronger/better defined. Not sure what that means for the end result with the confluence,  however" is night and day. And the second variation there takes almost no additional effort other than some extra keystrokes to type. 

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

The fact that we had thunderstorms yesterday on Dec 31 makes me question how much cold/suppression there’s gonna be lol. I still like where we’re at.

Maybe...but we can get cold season thunderstorms on the leading edge of a major pattern change as a strong/dynamic front goes through. Seemingly that's more what happened yesterday. Dynamic/strong system ushers in a regime change. 

Every winter it is the same. We get an influx of users who think post quantity is more important than quality. Just remember - sometimes it's like when the principal at your school knows you...better to NOT be known by the principal as that means you're probably not getting in trouble on the regular. It's OK to lurk and learn. And I'm not saying this as an elitist. Many of us were in your same position long (or not so long) ago. 

Running up am absurd number of posts in a short amount of time isn't going to garner you any extra camaraderie around here. 

Pretty soon we're going to have to re-visit the idea of having only designated people parse the model runs/suites  

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Looks like DC/Balt will be the bullseye here.

@bncho - famous last words! You are running up a fast post count since joining! Not a race  

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Crushed south 

Always love when rapid fire posts contrast this much