Kmlwx

I usually lurk in the long range threads - and what I am about to say is purely "gut feeling-esque" but this upcoming period while it may not be the "peak climo" or "best odds" - has the feeling of a period of time that might define the remainder of winter. In other words, if we can find a way to make snow work with a less than perfect pattern a time or two in the next 2+ weeks, it feels like something bigger might come "easier" (term used loosely). Similar to how Bob and others say some winter it just "wants to snow" 

If we get skunked through like January 10th, it may still be game on for later in the month and into Feb, but it'll have a whole different feel if we can back into or have a few events sneak in before primetime. 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im only here with PSU for HECS. after all these years..i dont think even MECS would do it

If they came over a short enough period with sustained cold it could be a "cumulative HECS" lol. 

The 6z NAM has a short period of like 90kt+ winds in the area at the 850mb level. Doesn't seem any of the other guidance has it this high at all. 

Just drove from Odenton over to Colesville. Rain 100% to start the trek and then raindrops on the windshield started to take on a mangled flake consistency. By the time I was on the ICC (MD-200) near New Hampshire Ave it was seemingly mostly/all snow and coming down nicely. 

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know this is lols but I wouldn’t be shocked if places closer to the cities get 1-3” of one of these bands the meso models keep hinting at actually sets up. 
 

Interesting that it's been repeatedly showing up right along the fall line for the most part. 

Thunder just now in the Odenton area in Maryland. 

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

         NDFD is the gridded NWS forecast    

Was just about to post this  

24 minutes ago, George BM said:

A MRGL wouldn't surprise me if wind fields are strong enough and the pencil thin-line can tap into that wind aloft.

If nothing else - 925mb and 850mb winds are pretty impressive for a time on Sunday. GFS has 45-55mph gusts. Would at least trigger a wind advisory if that verifies. 

Pencil thin convective potential on Sunday? GFS gets marginal supercell composite parameters into the area. Nothing super severe - but could be a bit of "interesting" weather more than just fog and rain and sun. 

Flurries in Colesville! 

It’s also an ensemble mean and thus will appear smoothed. 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Not to mention that's not even a real rebuttal?

P.S. "RMPL"?

My less direct way of saying "read more, post less" 

But now not so subtle lol. 

I just went back and checked... The map that the person posted was the Euro ensemble control... Not even the OP

Except in a few cases - as soon as somebody starts saying things like 

"my vast years of knowledge" 

I know to stop taking them seriously. The true ones that have years of experience don't flaunt them overtly like that. 

PSU, Bob Chill and all of the degreed mets on here don't flaunt "I'm better than you because I have decades of observation" 

Take notes certain people... 

It's like somebody simply saying as a rebuttal "I've done my research" 

RMPL 

11 minutes ago, stormy said:

I have never been a big fan of the 15 day EURO but it was posted here a few days ago amind a big splash so I figured I would post it.

The more I read your thoughts, the more I think we could be friends!!

Don't take anything you perceive as an insult seriously.  You're question, "is this a serious post" prompted a reply.  I gave the reply and we are fine.

The OP Euro is NOT the same as the Euro Control...if that's indeed what you posted. Euro control is a single member of the ensembles with no perturbed conditions initially. It's NOT the OP Euro and has little value other than being a single member of the EC ENS

ETA: You literally did post the Euro ensemble control member. Not even the OP Euro run... I went back and looked. It's a single ensemble member. 

1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Let's get the digital snow thread cranking.  You would thing we would start seeing threats in the LR on the ops here soon.  That WB NAO is just a thing of beauty.  Maybe a bit of patience is needed? D10-15 with a PAC that seeds some Arctic air into the pattern may really kick things off.

Big storms typically wait until the NAO is on the rebound towards neutral or positive 

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why in the world are you looking that far ahead?? Stay in the present day, dang it! We're still figuring out THIS winter--mercy, dude!

It's Ji...

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It's the DC area.  Way too many people are a bad combination of miserable, picky, and demanding.  

This is not unique to this area. People just suck nationwide or even globally. It's very sad.

Back on topic though....imagine if that tropical system and that digging trough were configured a bit differently lol

It may be worth telling Ashley (I can as well) that Alan Henney (a local news/crime follower) and I run a Zello group dedicated to local breaking news and crime (as it happens essentially). It's much more focused on police/fire - but there could be some crossover there. We don't do any forwarding to authorities that much - but many of the members that monitor the channel are local reporters (freelance or pro) and many have some connection to local public safety. We have several hundred "members" - the channel is PW protected as well to prevent "riff raff" from joining. 

I don't think we would want to merge the groups of course - but it may be a way to coordinate or work together. 

Will they QC the reports? I can only imagine what this will lead to if a "friend of a friend" messages that they see a "tornado" and somebody reposts that....90% chance it's scud or other cloud phenomenon. 

Count me in to help in whatever way is needed. I'm in Montgomery County - but it sounds like this would not be limited to PG?

BWI: 8.2"

DCA: 5.5"

IAD: 12.2"

RIC: 1.5"

Tiebreaker SBY: 1.0"

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely think the mountains will get some flakes and possibly light accumulations over the next 7-14 days. 

There's also been some hints at some sort of big storm system (maybe tropical in origin?) going well off the coast or perhaps closer-in...but obviously it could just be the GFS doing it's weird super long range stuff. 

A few runs have had a signal in that timeframe recently! Let's will this one in! 

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Ok so if going to be perceptible then should be underway soon 

Recall that in 2017, I believe in the DC area it was like 80%+ total. This will be like 30% locally. So whatever perceived darkness people felt here (I was in SC for that) - it will be much less than that. 

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m thinking if it does dim some that around us itvwould be between 2-3pm?

Peak is 1:18pm for Colesville.