Kmlwx

6 minutes ago, Normandy said:

It’s not unreasonable.  Guidance that keeps this away from the Yucatan have a strong system hitting land.  If the low stays offshore and has 90 hours over water, getting a strong to major hurricane isn’t even a high ceiling.  Let’s see how it plays out though I staked my claim and the crow may come!

I don't think anybody said "unreasonable" 

It's simply too early to start making calls like "110mph into Tampa" 

Northern edge might scrape me. 

Fauquier County appears to be the place to be if you want rain right now. 

Little boundary visible on the TIAD radar moving south between the IAD radar and the LWX radar. A few isolated showers popping up as well in Northern Virginia. 

It's soupy, at least...72 dewpoint here but 76 degrees for the air temp. 

Most guidance seems to have some isolated showers/storms this afternoon...but much of the guidance for the metro area is pretty weak sauce. Not expecting anything major. Might get a rogue warning or two I guess. 

Interesting boundary collision happened near Travilah it looks like. Didn't result in anything thus far. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's over for Montgomery

I think you're right for severe. But we may see some showers or thundershowers scrape by as the activity down in VA passes by to our south. Look at the litle showers on the northern end of that stuff. Western MoCo probably done for anything though. 

Actually getting bright sun right now in Colesville despite that precip being just a HAIR east of me. 

The Gordonsville area storm down in VA looks like the beefy one of the day...maybe some weak rotation on it too. 

Nice outflow presentation on the LWX radar from the stuff crossing the Potomac. Outflow out to the north and south. 

The stuff down near Madison/Orange/and CHO looks decent. 

Little shower now trying to fire up near Rockville. 

Activity running from Calverton, VA up to Manassas is growing nicely. 

Left moving supercell parameter is doing better than the normal supercell composite parameter. Also parameters as a whole seem JUICED along and east of a line pretty much bisecting MoCo running SW to NE generally. 

And yeah that 16z run of the HRRR is robust. 

Seems like in this setup there may only be one or two dominant cells but they may be INTENSE ones. 

Little cells/showers showing up SW of Warrenton now. Would think that's the activity models have been keying in on. We'll what it does. 

Could be something *trying* to get bubbly near Front Royal. Nothing particularly interesting for now. 

Decent CAPE present in the SPC slight risk area. No shortage of bulk shear. DCAPE pretty good to the NW and then again well south and east - with a minimum locally. It is SOUP out there, though...

14z HRRR looks good again for perhaps DC proper and then east to and across the bay. Seems it has consistently really "liked" Anne Arundel County. 

Slight risk includes the metro area on the 9am update. 

I'm starting to be "in" on a sneaky "lone ranger" kind of cell in the area this PM. 11z HRRR continues the idea of some training but also jumps on board with the idea of a cell blowing up and being the "dominant" one. It starts in NoVA but quickly intensifies and exits into the Bay in or around Anne Arundel County. 

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe. 

The 0z MPAS-HT-NSSL also shows signs of this - as well as the MPAS-HN-NSSL. 

The RRFS-EMC blows up a thing that looks like a potential supercell in Prince William Co around 18z and it tracks it through DC before exiting into the Bay in Anne Arundel Co. The 6z NAM kind of showed the same thing - NoVA supercell that blows up and heads E or ENE.

10z HRRR almost has some signs of backbuilding/training for parts of the I-95 corridor in the 18z-01z timeframe. 

The cell is now near Shanghai and looks like a mini supercell almost. 

28 minutes ago, high risk said:

      The HRRR has been pretty consistent keeping the overnight activity north of the DC area, and storms are starting to fire now in northeastern WV.     The shear tonight supports a tornado threat;  it's just unclear whether the storms will be surface-based.

The cell NE of Capon Bridge already seems to have some minor rotation with it potentially.