Kmlwx

I've gotten stuck around 95 IMBY. 95.5 now with a high today of 95.7 so far. 

93.6 actual
73.9 dewpoint

HI: 103.8

13 degrees up from the low here so far. (83.7 right now). Dewpoint is a soupy 76. However, my supposedly less accurate thermometer in the same general area is 3 degrees higher. 

CSU MLP is pretty enthusiastic about the damaging wind threat tomorrow - even today but of course mainly NW. 

6 hours ago, high risk said:

That midwest derecho won't make it here, but the CAM signal for widespread convection Wednesday in a fairly healthy environment is quite strong in this evening's runs.   Would think we should wake up to a Day 2 SLGT in the morning.

And we did! 

High of 98.1 at the house. Dewpoint sitting in the mid 70s. Temp now down to 77.5 after the rain. 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't sleep on anything next week. Ridge is more favorable for MCS and we have a better chance at EML advection.

Yeah I was noticing some mid-level lapse rates getting advected in on the GFS. Timing kind of sucked on a few runs though. Worth watching at a minimum. 

CSU MLP remains relatively interesting for next week. 

Raining - but really did fizzle a good bit before reaching me. Good to get some liquid though

Honestly surprised MoCo isn't warned with how LWX usually warns (no offense!). Decent gusts (but subsevere) on the LWX radar. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

TOR possible tag on it now 

The further north that gets will probably get it into better shear as well. Some good wind velocity showing up on the LWX scans entering MoCo as well. 

Worth watching that Fairfax storm - velocity scans show it could evolve into something (albeit weak probably) if it keeps up with that look (TDCA scans)

Some of these cells have echo tops at or above 55kft! 

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Then why would my location matter?

Well for obs. I guess my point is - maybe they just didn't know that your username was also your location or a location at all. Just devil's advocate - don't mind me  

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

It's shocking even on this board how many people are ignorant in geography 

To be fair - some people probably haven't heard of Aldie or are aware that it it's a town. 

That Warrenton cell has a TON of lightning showing up on it. 

4x F-35 and 4x F-22 are scheduled to flyover the National Mall in DC at 7:45 tonight. Would be great to see it - wondering if they cancel this for storms. 

Echo tops are very respectable on that cell N of Culpeper. I think radar actually looks somewhat decent. Nothing super intense but at least it seems stuff is forming in a roughly linear shape - not just isolated pop ups. 

My eyes are on the stuff just N of CHO

Boundary pushing well inland from the bay

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Marginal mid level lapse rates are killing us thus far.

We'll likely need storms to consolidate to either start firing stuff on outflow boundaries or perhaps if some semblance of a cold pool can start to assist. 

Was just outside (can confirm it is disgusting) - and a few sacred drops of some sort of liquid hit me. Can't be rain - it doesn't do that here anymore.

Knowing our luck - the various popcorn stuff developing will lower instability and ruin any more consolidated threat later  

But I'll take the rain at this point if it moistens up the ground and also cools the house down. 

Popcorn shower near Clarksburg

Of note - CSU MLP page has severe potential for Sun through Wed next week. Doesn't mean it'll verify - but maybe we get some change in luck for precipitation at least.