Kmlwx

0z HRRR does it's usual thing of bringing dews way down - even into the lower 60s for some tomorrow afternoon. The 18z NAM had richer moisture as usual. Despite that, the HRRR does deliver some storms but it looks fairly garden variety. 

12z NAM nest goes kind of bonkers for parts of the area tomorrow afternoon - even has intense UH tracks over parts of the area. The other guidance is less impressive...but the FV3 is pretty good too. 

38 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like some 100 degree heat will be coming next week 

Greaaaaat - naturally it happens as we are exiting the climo hottest period lol. 

PBZ radar is cool to watch. You can see the outflow trying to outrun the storms. Outflow seems to be heading almost due south despite the storms trying to pull more easterly - they keep being tugged along with the outflow. 

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

HRRR timing is not even close. Storms right now about to move into state college around 10ish and HRRR at 10 has the storms like 3 counties west of there. 

It also seems to interact with the activity over WV which seems to "aid" in killing off the line. Certainly the line still looks robust for right now. 

0z HRRR kills off most of the activity for much of our area except for NE Maryland as LWX has been indicating. 

8 minutes ago, mappy said:

Wind threat? Should I bring in pool floats and stuff?

If it's easy - I'm not convinced the storms will make it here with much else than showers. But - some of the models do have something coming through. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

@Kmlwx I lost the OU CIMMS placefile for GR. Can you post it in here please?

Hang on - coming right up

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/NOAACIMSS_PROBSEVERE

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. This event is climatologically abnormal, and we don't have the rocket fuel to really goose the storms up. Still, we have some decent mid level instability, a belt of shear, and some really solid DCAPE.

Also, in addition to not having the triple digit heat that June 2012 had, this will be arriving substantially later. In fact, it will probably arrive so late that it makes little sense to "stay up" for the storms...I'll set an alarm for 2am perhaps and see how things look. 

I do like the look of the stuff over western Ohio - based on the H5 flow I'd think that would be more likely to be our stuff versus the NW PA stuff. 

Not anything near as intense as June 2012 - but this is the kind of event where MAYBE some of us get surprised. Models can really struggle sometimes with eastern extent of a threat in a setup like this. It will be fighting the complete opposite of peak heating by the time it gets here - but I'll be watching. 

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Some of the CAMs blow through a dying MCS after midnight tonight. We have a decent pool of mid level lapse rates ahead of this line per SPC mesoanalysis (maybe a bit of an EML?) and a lot of DCAPE. Might be an interesting night. At least we stand to get some rain.

Especially the MPAS runs on the NSSL site. 

I thought its was somewhat "odd" that the 3am discussion cited the 12z guidance - by that time the 18z and 0z should have been out. I guess maybe the 0z wouldn't have made it in. Ah well. 

Means nothing this far out...but the 0z and 6z GFS have a tropical system off the east coast in the super long range. 

The HRRR is quite stormy for the overnight period. The overnight nature probably means limited severe threat, however. These nocturnal storms tend to be prolific lightning producers when the atmosphere is humid, though. 

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the lead cell in Montgomery gusted out and caused a nice circular outflow boundary. The secondary activity that was over NOVA picked right up on that and just congealed into a nice multi-cell line. Mesoscale meteorology is so cool.

Despite no severe criteria being met in MBY - that was a lot of fun to track and watch the evolution. I would call  yesterday a win. Lots of places got some much needed drinks for the grass and there was some nice thunder and lightning even if the storms were sub-severe for many. Good, widespread storm day. 

The GFS tries to get some upper 40s dewpoints into the area next weekend. 

2 hours ago, H2O said:

.84” from a nice storm with clouds I did NOT yell at @Kmlwx

You'd have hit an inch if you had not yelled last time...

We've had less LSRs on severe thunderstorm watch days. I think this could have been given a watch. But of course - it was harder to say earlier. The dewpoints were juicy today + some good heat. 

Possible downburst/wind signature near and just south of Rockville on the TIAD radar. 

Continuous rolling thunder - not much in the way of anything severe, though. At least thus far. (Colesville, MD). 

Temp is getting knocked down, at least!

CIMMS probsevere is tagging the entire blob as "one" now 

Maybe it will congeal into a mega-supercell. 

Does anyone remember "Lightning Fire from the Storm"  

The cell over IAD/LWX is putting down some prolific lightning it looks like. 

I'm guessing we are going to get some trees/wires down LSRs in that area between Poolesville and Darnestown. 

Possible downburst signature SE of Poolesville on the TIAD radar? - One of the most chaotic radars I can remember with so many cells in a small area. It's going to blobify.