Kmlwx

The NAM twins have been improving the last few runs. The long range 18z HRRR looked good for DC and east as well.

NAM has 85 knot winds at 850mb over the bay on Monday. Dynamic storm system!

It's essentially December - so we shouldn't expect much of anything. But we'll all keep an eye on it I'm sure

Record is 74 for today at DCA.

Yeah - SPC does have a mention of that window in the D4-8 outlook. One exception may be near the end of the period (days 7-8/23rd-24th) in the upper Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, if a more intensely amplified northern-stream cyclone, as forecast by operational ECMWF (but not deterministic GFS/CMC nor several EC ensemble members), verifies over the southern ON/lower Great Lakes region. Such a scenario would strengthen frontal forcing under intense flow aloft for potential low-topped convective band(s). However, at such a long time range, predictability is very low for such a solution.

Hefty rain and some good gusts with this activity in the Severn/Hanover area right now.

Big polygons showing up - typical with this kind of a setup to warn essentially the entire line - regardless of radar velocity it seems. Line looking nice - especially the area near the Mason-Dixon line. It's too bad we don't go right from severe season into blizzards. Imagine having something to track almost every week all year. Dec-Mar = Winter storms Apr-Aug = Severe thunderstorms/wedges Sept-Oct = Less severe but still some and tropical Nov-Dec = Synoptic wind rippage

I think they have to then declare the growing season as over. It's possible they had a warning but NWS determined it didn't hit it.

The PVC is a great idea! Couldn't a local government issue a curfew?

Could be. But most will realize that the candy will touch other people's hands prior to being received in your child's candy bag. Doubtful many homeowners are going to go to the lengths of wearing gloves. And you have to be within 6ft to get candy unless you're tossing it into a bag. I know a few counties are already "strongly discouraging" it. I'd assume the more lax jurisdictions will completely allow it and likely the more rural locations as well. I think people will still try - but far less households are going to open their doors. Perhaps the unattended bowls.

I doubt there will be many trick-or-treaters at all. And most events are probably off the table. Lots of bars already shuttered again.

This is the most H20 comment I could have woken up to. Now you have to change your username to FogBoobz

Long range 6z GFS is funny.

SPC has been throwing out mention of the *chance* of severe potential towards next weekend in the D4-8 outlooks the last day or two. Too far out.

Bull-gear went bad. That's about the longest repair that the radar can have to endure. Add that to the fact that ROC (Radar Operations Center) is busy rebuilding the Lake Charles site. Bull-gear requires upwards of 15,000 pounds of equipment to be lifted into the radome and then for the entire unit to be lifted up so the gear can be serviced/replaced.

6 days ahead of schedule is excellent work by ROC. They said the 16th...

It was *not* supposed to be fixed yesterday. It was supposed to be evaluated for next steps yesterday (which it was). Bull-gear failure and it will likely be down for 10+ days.

Can you imagine this vort pass in prime winter? This is for the Tue/Wed event.

I'm having a hard time remembering what the cloud cover/precip situation was just ahead of the Sept 2012 event. Based on the SPC events page, it looks like that might have been an event that started earlier in the day. We had mesoscale discussions by mid morning it seems. It seems the guidance wants to track the low nearby or even to the southeast. The low being SE of us is going to probably nix any severe potential. We'll need to see if that trends back north and west a bit.

CIPS has backed way off - par for the course.

This vort pass coming Tue/Wed would probably be nice in winter

CTP's radar is also offline - but based on their status message it sounds like that'll be a brief outage once parts arrive.

The LWX radar is the "worst case" scenario - it's the bull-gear. They won't even be discussing next steps until a joint meeting on Monday. Thereafter it looks like the radar is going to be down for a minimum of a week - but likely longer.

CIPS is still highlighting this analog - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20120918

What I found interesting is that this failure occurred right after an upgrade or other maintenance. Assuming it's just a coincidence. Lake Charles should DEFINITELY get preference. Is there some sort of contingency that allows them to work on multiple 88Ds at once? Rare case but what if a major storm took out 2 or 3 radars in short order. I guess it's a personnel numbers type thing - can't imagine there's a ton of folks able to do work on radars. ETA: This failure probably guarantees the event of the season on Tuesday