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About Kmlwx

- Birthday 09/14/1991
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDCA
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Colesville, MD
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Interests
Meteorology, Packers, local crime news
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I have the WS-5000 and have had no complaints. In fact, with Energizer Lithium batteries I somehow have yet to have to change ANY of the sensor batteries...and it's been over 2 years I think. Has to happen eventually....they just keep going. I have a few temp sensors, a lightning one. Never installed the rain gauge because I don't have a good spot, and the wind direction is unreliable because it's not sighted properly - but for everything else it's been fantastic. The power supply for the console went haywire and died recently but got an Amazon replacement and it went back to normal.
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NAM nest and HRDPS seem to be the most enthused. Some of the other CAMs seem pretty underenthused. We'll see - if nothing else another ground wetting for many seems likely.
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Wake up folks! Day 2 marginal from SPC, NCAR AI and CSU MLP look decent for tomorrow as does NAM nest sim reflectivity. This might be the last hurrah of the season...omitting any pencil thin squall line like we often get in fall.
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I wouldn't rule anything out of course at this phase. So much usually depends on how disorganized it stays (or the opposite). Certainly if it gets stronger quicker I'd favor the classic recurve. Those tracks at least leave a low probability door open for something to get closer than most of the tracks would indicate. If nothing else, seems like the Atlantic is stirring at a minimum.
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I would have totally expected Virginia to be higher on the list if for no other reason than more area.
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In summer's past - 65 degree dewpoints would be starting to get muggy. After at, or above 80 degree dewpoints...65-67 feels like fall air
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The radar is reminding me of some of the Local on the 8s classic squall lines on the low-res local radar from the 1990s.
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Some backbuilding/training of those MoCo cells. Area from around Great Falls to Kensington and Sligo Creek areas are in trouble if this keeps up. Really bad spot to have training storms.
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Downburst/microburst signal on the Montgomery County cell it looks like.
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I know a lot of our days in past summers, the dewpoint gets ticked downwards a bit by downsloping winds. Seems perhaps that has been largely missing this year?
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Pigs are flying, folks!!!! Man your battlestations!
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My money is on flooding being the biggest risk with 1) Antecedent conditions and 2) The saggy front aspect.
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Saggy fronts that get hung up and just sort of slowly move through tend to be big rain producers for us sometimes - especially when they act as "train tracks" for repeated clusters/lines of storms. The ground is definitely primed for flooding already. Stream near me has had two 8+ft crests in the past few weeks. If the tropics ever wake up this year and decide to threaten the east coast, some parts of the area are pretty darn waterlogged...could be a big event.
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Kind of outside of our normal "big severe" window. This is usually when we get stuck in pulse severe season. But yes - I agree. At range there's so many things that could temper the threat though. I have on eye on it for now - we'll see how things look as the weekend starts. I'll be watching the AI severe pages for trends.
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LWX in their early morning AFD seems potentially excited about severe potential into next week. SPC also has a good discussion on their D4-8 outlook. We'll have no clarity on details until closer to next week - but bears watching.
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