Kmlwx
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About Kmlwx
- Birthday 09/14/1991
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I wouldn't rule anything out of course at this phase. So much usually depends on how disorganized it stays (or the opposite). Certainly if it gets stronger quicker I'd favor the classic recurve. Those tracks at least leave a low probability door open for something to get closer than most of the tracks would indicate. If nothing else, seems like the Atlantic is stirring at a minimum.
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I would have totally expected Virginia to be higher on the list if for no other reason than more area.
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In summer's past - 65 degree dewpoints would be starting to get muggy. After at, or above 80 degree dewpoints...65-67 feels like fall air
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The radar is reminding me of some of the Local on the 8s classic squall lines on the low-res local radar from the 1990s.
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Some backbuilding/training of those MoCo cells. Area from around Great Falls to Kensington and Sligo Creek areas are in trouble if this keeps up. Really bad spot to have training storms.
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Downburst/microburst signal on the Montgomery County cell it looks like.
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I know a lot of our days in past summers, the dewpoint gets ticked downwards a bit by downsloping winds. Seems perhaps that has been largely missing this year?
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Pigs are flying, folks!!!! Man your battlestations!
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My money is on flooding being the biggest risk with 1) Antecedent conditions and 2) The saggy front aspect.
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Saggy fronts that get hung up and just sort of slowly move through tend to be big rain producers for us sometimes - especially when they act as "train tracks" for repeated clusters/lines of storms. The ground is definitely primed for flooding already. Stream near me has had two 8+ft crests in the past few weeks. If the tropics ever wake up this year and decide to threaten the east coast, some parts of the area are pretty darn waterlogged...could be a big event.
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Kind of outside of our normal "big severe" window. This is usually when we get stuck in pulse severe season. But yes - I agree. At range there's so many things that could temper the threat though. I have on eye on it for now - we'll see how things look as the weekend starts. I'll be watching the AI severe pages for trends.
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LWX in their early morning AFD seems potentially excited about severe potential into next week. SPC also has a good discussion on their D4-8 outlook. We'll have no clarity on details until closer to next week - but bears watching.
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62.8 with a dewpoint in the lower 60s. SO much better.
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That storm coming down the Potomac looks healthy and supercellular.
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Same general setup here. On a hill and away from the trail by a good bit. Can definitely hear the roar of the stream/creek when it gets high though. My friends and I found a fish well up into the branches of a tree after the June 2006 flooding. I don't think I've seen water levels that high since then.
