Kmlwx
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- Birthday 09/14/1991
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Sunday still looks like it has a chance. Maybe next Thursday too?
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Sunday has a chance according to CSU
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It's worse to our west (like WV). At least some sunshine has rebounded CAPE above 1000 in the metros seemingly. But still probably isn't going to do much. WV is devoid completely of CAPE
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Yep. Today looks mostly dead for us save for some overnight downpours here or there.
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One thing that SPC mentioned in the relevant mesoscale discussion for the ongoing potential derecho - is that the areas east and southeast are pretty well hindered by earlier convective activity. They seem to think this may reduce the threat as it heads ESE but also that new and stronger activity may form on the southern flank. This would be inline with the CAMs and would lead to probably nada for us.
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It's heading pretty east for now - but these things tend to bend more and more SE with time. Additionally, I feel like subsequent linear MCS lines tend to go more south than the preceding ones. But worth watching how big of a bend to the SE it starts curving. If it's significant probably game over for storms for us.
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Completely agree - the obvious answer here is that as repeated MCS activity rolls through - it pushes the overall boundary a little further south each time. Thus - the "train tracks" are more south vs yesterday. I think it CAN happen - usually MCSs on the SAME DAY suffer from this more - but it's definitely a factor even next day. I think what to watch for is if something to our SW can REALLY get going - perhaps it can throw off a cold pool just east enough to get some development on the "bookend" NW side.
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The HRRR is pretty much nada now as well.
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The 13z SPC D1 outlook update still keeps us on the outside looking in. 15% well SW of the metro areas.
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I'm not sure I inherently "trust" any of the CAMs in setups like this. Even looking at all of them and taking an "average" can be off. I do think the HRRR (probably due to the fact that it's hourly) does tend to eventually latch onto something close to reality - but even then it can have times where it's sim reflectivity for 2 hours in the future doesn't even match reality. But yes - we shall see! Wouldn't be surprised if literally nothing happens locally today - but also wouldn't be surprised if there's a decent swath of 50-65mph wind across a good bit of the area.
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The 09z RRFS sweeps some activity through the area around 2-3z. The CAMs are a mixed bag today (same as yesterday). Some completely skunk most of the area while others sweep some stuff through. "We just can't know"
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Some breaks in the clouds to the west on visible sat. Devil's advocate arguments here could be the usual "the crapvection might lay down boundaries" or sometimes the preceding rainfall can help us stay moist rather than mixing to lower dews. I still think failure is a very high potential today - but my eyes are still open (for now).
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The NAM seems to insist that the big activity later will stay back in SPC's outlooked area and even more more S or even SW. The HRRR differs in that it spawns activity in addition to that stuff and sweeps it through later on. I actually can easily see a scenario where the HRRR is right - depends on if the stuff that forms can cold pool and such (similar to yesterday). Let's go from a 5% to a moderate
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And going by the SPC outlook - we are PRIMED for an SPC "catch up" day - all kidding. But days like today CAN surprise.
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The 3km NAM skunks us. The HRRR is more robust.
