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About Kmlwx

- Birthday 09/14/1991
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KDCA
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Colesville, MD
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Interests
Meteorology, Packers, local crime news
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The CFS monthlies seemingly have a potential NW flow H5 pattern (at least in general/smoothed terms) same with CanSIPS. For June.
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It's definitely a little wacky looking - I'm not sure other than doing completely separate color-coded maps how they could have implemented this differently. I like the idea/principle, though!
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The 2nd half of the coming week has some minor potential. GFS has some modest supercell composite parameters - and even the Euro has some instability around. Interesting enough for early March, at least. Nothing substantial, of course. CSU-MLP has some minor probs painted over some of our area Friday.
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I wasn't aware of this! I've been not monitoring as closely due to work. Thank you!!! Imagine a 90% wind
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I'm doing it....the 2026 iteration starts today. With potential warm weather on the horizon, we will likely see the start of the pencil thing gusty shower line season. @yoda - I feel like you're usually on board with early tracking with me. Excited to get back to our smaller spring/summer crew...The winter weenies can take their bickering away soon enough. As much as I hate summer heat - I tolerate it for thunderstorms. And now....I will go back to watching CFS/weeklies/CSU-MLP/CIPS pages for signs of our first threats!
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Outta gas and Outta Time: Early March Winter Storm finale
Kmlwx replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
I wish for 115 degree temperatures and 80 degree dew points for you then. -
And honestly most bugs are more hardy than people give them credit for. You really need more than just one night of hard freeze to kill most. Many can just sort of slow down their metabolism and hunker down.
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Whether it happens or not....it's like 8+ days away...come on....
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You and @osfan24 make a great team
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My big win is that I haven't had to create the 2026 Severe Weather Discussion thread yet. We've done it as early as December for the following year before - but generally seems to average out to mid-February lately (always a pesky dynamic system threatening to give us a pencil thin and low topped squall line). So if nothing else - seems we are still "wintry enough" to not need my annual installment. Whew.
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I know it's very event-dependent - but hasn't the whole "it was too warm leading in" argument been pretty much squashed?
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bncho is averaging almost 7 posts per day since his join date. I expect to get 7 inches of snow from this system. Better perform.
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The wind is so gusty here in Odenton that my dog's crap blew down the street as soon as it fell out...
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The one thing that may spare us from more damaging amounts of power outages are that the trees are bare. Heck of a lot more damaging when they have all the leaves to act like a sail.
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February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post
Kmlwx replied to Weather Will's topic in Mid Atlantic
People have mentioned it before - but it's pretty clear to me that a lot of folks just use analogs totally wrong. I think the red taggers and the veteran snow trackers (psuhoffman and others) use them *correctly* Too many people see an analog date for big snow and assume big snow is "likely" and on the flip side - somebody will see a Boxing Day analog and get spooked. We should use analogs for large scale patterns NOT end results. It should go without saying that an analog is never going to be a 1:1 match down to every last detail. And in an atmosphere where one tiny change can have a big impact...even a 99% analog could go a completely different way in the end. Long way of saying yes - if I see Jan 2026 in the future analogs in future years - I will absolutely roll the dice with that.
