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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah I’ve never liked this threat for our area…posted days ago I didn’t like the airmass….eps still has plenty of decent members but the mean is def headed north and it makes some sense if we’re not getting a good area of confluence in Quebec. We need to time everything nearly perfectly to get something big.
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The best PVA and energy on these 12z solutions is at the base of the southern stream trough so even on these solutions that initially run things well NW, they keep trying to crash everything SE as the system encounters a lot of compression in the flow to the east. GGEM went wild too late in the event after having the primary near ROC, though it was mostly too late for SNE outside of a few inches in the pike region northeastward….but Maine gets epically destroyed. Lol
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I don’t really follow the ICON that much. Its a bit noisy for my liking. I treat it like the other JV models. It’s prob better than the NAVGEM and JMA and those types, but I’d never weight it more than the GGEM or Ukie. It mostly has any use at all because it comes out early so sometimes we can get a better sense of what the gee tal model trends will be on that particular cycle.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yeah agreed. Faster means we’re getting better phasing with the initial northern stream shortwave which produces those northwest scenarios. We even had a run or two of a pure cutter on the GGEM a couple days ago. Slower means less phasing or at least more delayed phasing even if it’s partial and a further south solution. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yesterday most people were thinking it would get crunched SE. Now a whole bunch of people yelling congrats to dendrite and powderfreak. Lot of minds on tilt these days. It could honestly go either direction. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yep. Not a good way to look at it yet. A bunch of people would be crushed if we could see another 12 hours. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Maybe. It’s an unmanned firehose look though. There’s literally huge solutions for almost anyone in New England. 2/13 is mostly gravy imho anyway never expected much out of this but it has a legit chance. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
They retrograde the GOA/Aleutian low nicely and go strong -AO/-NAO in pulses which is nice too see. @Typhoon Tip likes to see it oscillate a bit on magnitude since that is where storminess is most likely. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
A nice aspect of todays ensemble runs (both GEFS and EPS) is we’re seeing the GOA low retrograding back west at the end of the run. This is something @brooklynwx99 and I were pondering the last couple days. He had mentioned that it should theoretically retreat given the PAC jet weakening. It’s good to see guidance trying to pick up on that. A window longer than 7-10 days would substantially increase the chances of hitting on a major storm threat. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Not at all. Solutions all over the map including some huge hits. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Aside from the 2/13 threat which is precarious, I do really like the look afterwards in the 2/15-2/20 range. Really poleward ridge with cold antecedent airmass over much of the eastern half of the country. Good setup for something higher end. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
ORH_wxman replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yeah that’s squashed. Ridge axis is decently west though so certainly room for it to improve. Gonna either need more phasing with northern stream or more lagging. This run was the sweet spot to basically crush the whole thing south.