ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Looks like that changes drastically if ensembles are correct....they could be wrong of course, but I don't see Canada with above normal temps after about 2/4 or 2/5.
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EPS gone wild today with the PAC ridging.
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Not a pack winter....just enjoy tracking the storm itself. With some luck, we get a lot from the storm and the mild up is like a couple days of 40s with relatively low dews and a dry fropa.
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Dude, beginning 2nd week of February is when we really liked it....After the 5-6th timeframe. Could sneak an event in before that (Feb 1-2 right now)....no guarantee we get that mild either....some of the guidance is a little flatter for the 2/3-5 timeframe.
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It tracked closer. 00z was pretty awful...I'm not counting that little shit front-runner low that dropped like an inch of slop on the 00z run. We don't want this if we're trying to get a real storm in here.
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Yeah....I mean at some point w'ere gonna have to quit the foreplay and see a real solution by the Euro, but we haven't quite reached that point yet. But by tonight or tomorrow I think. That's when we'll be getting inside of 4 days.
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Gonna still be a miss or scraper, but that's a drastically better look....tons of N stream energy diving in....I'll bet ensembles are better than 06z.
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Euro look more amped out west with the ridge....this might be a bit better than 00z.
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The last event literally trended 600 miles northwest in about a 48 hour period. Granted, slower pattern....but this doesn't need 600 miles either.
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Because it's an emotional response and not a scientific one.
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Ukie still a pretty good hit for eastern areas (minus the bias of flooding the marine air) and Maine/SE NH. Advisory type event in western third to half of SNE.
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Ukie is way flatter with the ridge at 84 hours...definitely gonna be east of that zonked 00z run. But will still probably hit us with a snow event.
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I'd expect the Ukie to come southeast given how amped it was at 00z. If we get that model coming SE and the Euro going NW, then it's not a bad spot at this point.
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Its the equivalent of posting in the southeast forum about New England snow threats. I'm sure they'd take that pretty well.
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Not anywhere near here.
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Speed/progressive flow has always been a big issue with this one. It's why I was skeptical of the hugger solutions yesterday. But this still has room to be a good storm...GFS trended poorly, but GEM got better...they are similar skill.
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Looks like a scraper on GEM.
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GEM looks quite a bit more amped through 90 hours.
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Lets do a repeat of Jan 7-8
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Everything is more progressive...the whole longwave pattern is a bit east.
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12z GFS looks like it's going to be east of 06z. Might even whiff.
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We will welcome you with open arms when you are ready to leave 2005 behind.
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Old run...06z was solidly east
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That's a cold look in New England.
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Yeah it looks good. They improved from 12z yesterday a bit.
