ORH_wxman

UKMET was probably the most aggressive with the overrunning look next week...only goes out to 144 hours, but can extrapolate the look

Fast forward to 5:12

Lot of divergence on guidance (and within their own ensembles) for next week....could literally be 60F or snowing and 20F next Wednesday/Thursday.

Yes...for anything meaningful it seems. There could be some snow showers (or rain showers even) around on Saturday afternoon/evening.

No it didn't....it was actually pretty cold in N plains and rockies...we were under an ugly ridge most of the winter after early December.

People shouldn't expect the same snowstorms in a larger scale pattern analog....all it does it show that there's potential. When you have a mixed bag of snow vs dud results in a set of analogs, then it is a sign that there's a lot of uncertainty and you hope it works out but don;t set expectations too high. Back in 2015, the analogs were absolutely loaded with excellent cold/snow patterns so there was a lot more confidence in something popping....ditto in late January 2013....we saw all kinds of good analogs showing up that were the overwhelming majority. So confidence was high that we'd have a chance in that pattern...several people melted when the first 10-12 days didn't produce (including a cutter....lol), but then we finally popped one on Feb 8-9.

'96-'97 is the closest to what you're thinking of....very little snow after the double barreled Dec 6-8, 1996 dump until March. Can't really think of any other examples....it's generally too hard to NOT run into a few good snow events during the rest of winter. 1968-1969 had all kinds of snow in Nov/Dec early on, but then a total dud January with almost nothing....but then an epic stretch began again with the Lindsay Storm on Feb 9-10, 1969.

Yeah the Euro has been doing it too...just not as bad as the GEFS.

Brutal performance by the GEFS

They are a snapshot in time....the analogs are actually dates within the month...for example, we had 3 dates in Feb 1967 showing up recently...it basically means that Feb '67 had a pretty consistent pattern that looks like the one being modeled for early February. The analogs don't tell us how the pattern will look in late February though....the pattern could change. I mean, just look at the months themselves in the analogs....when we see 2/8/94 as ananalog...it means the pattern looks similar to that date, but it doesn't tell us anything about later that month....Feb 1994 torched for a week after Valentines day....it doesn't mean 2020 would do that because the analog was only for 2/8/94....likewise, an analog for early Feb 1967 doesn't mean that we're going to stay cold like most of that month was.

Our good analogs come up too...Feb '67 has been there almost every run....Feb '94 is coming up. Feb '89 is there too. Haven't seen last year actually. Feb '59 is a frustrating analog too that has popped up, though not as bad as Feb ''89. The analogs highlight exactly what the narrative has been though....it can work out or could be a dud....it's not what people want to hear because they want "locked in" patterns and certainty....but this is the opposite of that.

Reduced to tracking a 1-2 inch refresher the mountains of NNE....lol. Sorry folks....my juju didn't help on this one. Wasted a pretty well-placed longwave trough.

Last year shows how this type of pattern can be tough for SNE....plenty of cold just lurking but we frequently ended up on the wrong side and couldn't buy a good high for front end thumps or SWFEs. Feb 1989 was kind of a similar skunking....though it was more a lack of storms than anything, and the one big QPF event we got was a cutter. On the flip side, periods like early Feb 2014, early Feb 1994, and Dec 2008 show how it can work out. Throw Feb 1967 in there too.

Solid melt by Kevin this morning, but we've seen worse form him. This is like a B/B+ effort.

‘96-97 was close but then March started snowing again and obviously the finale on Mar 31-Apr 1 happened.

There will be chances. The pattern will probably produce a cutter or two as well. Just the nature of the strong +NAO/-PNA with cold dropping down into Canada.

That black hole over what is known as the NAO region isn’t helping matters. Leaves us totally exposed to the whims of the pacific.

Glad I didn’t stay up for the globals. Yeah, whatever new data they are getting clearly is making the storm less of a threat. This one is pretty much dead now.

No dice this run. Didnt look better than 18z either. Not that the NAM gets a lot of weight but we’re not seeing positive trends from any model since 12z. Still some time for realistic changes, but it’s getting late. This is definitely not a “stay up for the euro” type threat at the moment.

The northern stream that dives in late doesn’t get sampled until 00z tomorrow night. It’s out in the gulf of Alaska until then. Our initial northern shortwave that kind of becomes the “middle” one comes onshore tonight.

Gonna need this to tick back a bit to make Friday relevant. We’re just getting mucked up by different shortwaves seemingly every run. There’s been some positive trends in the larger scale look but this may just ultimately end up being a case of too much interference. Still, I guess there’s enough changes each run to keep an eye on it a little longer.

Eh, just seems we can’t hold a favorable trend every time we get one. We’re prob toast. Need a big move back on 00z.

Best thing going for this is that it does have a very well-placed trough that is fairly deep. Most of the time that spot will produce for us. On a very basic scale, we have a good synoptic pattern. Theres obviously details that are currently preventing all systems go, but at least it doesn’t feel like we need large scale shifts in the trough position or anything like that. Airmass is marginal too but it’s likely cold enough if any meaningful precip gets in here.

Doesn’t look comparable to what the EPS is showing. That was a +EPO pattern that kept all the cold mostly bottled up in Yukon/NW territories and BC. Central and eastern Canada torched

Yeah I feel like that was a tweet trying to rile up the snow weenies. He does that now and then, lol. We've had plenty of -EPO/-PNA/+NAO looks that work....Large chunks of the 2007-2008 winter, Feb 2014, Feb 1994, etc. Hell, check Feb 1967. Doesnt always work of course (see large chunks of last winter)