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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Thats fairly far east....prob wouldhave trouble getting precip to western areas.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Lol, I wouldn't feel good about this storm until 00z tomorrow night.
  3. ORH_wxman
    The atmosphere is basically imploding over the Cape, lol....that look usually means the hydrostatic models are not going to wrap this up tightly enough.
  4. ORH_wxman
    This is going to be an interesting system for obvious reasons. I may not want to trust hydrostatic models once we get inside 36 hours. A system like this is going to be obscene and a non-hydrostatic model might handle it better.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Wow, GFS nuke,.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Just be prepared to hear 12 hours straight of whining that the storm is busting until there's 18 inches on the ground
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the track is there, but it's just not going nuts with the dynamics. I actually was looking at the soundings on pivotal and it has me raining with 925mb below 0C because it's keeping the sfc near 36-37F with mostly moderate precip rates.
  8. ORH_wxman
    If it stays a bit east, I'd want to be in the hills near Sebago up in S ME.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I think they finally old yeller'd that model in 2017 or something.
  10. ORH_wxman
    I like using the 3km once we are inside of 24h. Sometimes it catches a trend before that, but hard to trust it further out.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah 3km is a bit more wrapped up...better for the central interior folks than the 12km run.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Ha, NAM says that Zwyts and Randy should just hang out in PWM.
  13. ORH_wxman
    E MA getting destroyed at 54-57h. RI/E CT too.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Bombs away at 54h....look at that dynamic cooling on the sounding, lol
  15. ORH_wxman
    This is going to be a weenie solution pretty close to BOS
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah up there has some actual towns further northeast where you mentioned...I'm talking more in the Allagash.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Once you get north of about Eustis, I swear it's like the northern version of deliverance.
  18. ORH_wxman
    NAM is going to be less amped than 06z I think. Southern vort is dragging this run vs 06z.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I don't think anyone is doing that. Others can chime in, but you should be fine.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Euro being the NW outlier is something we've seen before at this time range and I feel like we know how it ends. 70/30 compromise...... We'll see though, this one is a bear on guidance.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yes. It's an old school forecasting rule that has held up pretty well over the years for well developed storms.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Little bump east on the euro there. If we can get the consensus on this thing to be near the elbow of the cape or just slightly east, that puts a lot of SNE in the game.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Ha. Not a terrible analogy. Not sure we’re that close to punching it in yet. But yeah, we’ve improved from needing a Hail Mary I think. We’ve gotten enough to go right that we’re now in plausible territory even if still large dogs.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You know it’s bad when I was wishing the RPM went out another 6-12 hours.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Is it too early for the RPM?
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