ORH_wxman

What does that have to do with whether it snows in March? You sound like a gambler who bets everything on red because the roulette wheel came up red 8 times in a row.

The wavelengths shorten as we go into spring. Not lengthen. That’s why we start to lose the correlation with the AO and NAO.

Seems like wiz lost the point. He started talking about March making up for the entire season of snowfall deficit when the discussion was really about any decent storm at all. Yeah, it’s pretty unlikely we get enough snow in late February and March to get back to average snowfall in most areas of SNE. But it’s not unlikely that we get another good event...say, high end advisory or better.

And two of them were “the winter” and “the vibe of the season”. Lol. That’s persistence. Anyways, I’m not gonna keep harping on the semantics here. In my view, March is a muddled signal at the moment...it could end up warm and snowless but I wouldn’t make that call right now.

You just used the winter to date to justify your call. That means you are using persistence as a key part of your March forecast.

Ok you think that it will be a warm and snowless March. That’s fine you think that’s. That doesn’t mean I should be thinking the same thing or acting “surprised” that I don’t and that I “should know better”. I don’t see much that supports a torchy/snowless March. It could definitely happen...I’m not saying it won’t....but there’s nothing at the moment that screams torch and snowless March. Nothing screams cold and snowy either...it’s kind of a muddled signal. Persistence hasn’t worked in the past on these....so there’s no reason for me to use persistence this time. For every example of a garbage March that followed a garbage rest of the winter, I can point to one that went against the seasonal grain. That, by definition, means that’s persistence doesn’t have any skill.

You honestly have no idea about if it’s going to snow or not in March or even late this month. You think you do, but you don’t. The most skillful long range met wouldn’t be able to predict that.

I jinxed them in the last one by starting the thread. At least once you got north of about ASH.

Dude cant help himself even when he gives up on winter.

They both had big north trends. PDII was def a miss here several days out.

Looks like I might get an inch of crud again if “lucky”. Theme of the winter on these shredded SWFEs that are too far northwest to hammer the good dynamics into us. This one is probably going to have a lot of holes in the maxes and min up in NNE. I hate when the vortmax goes from like DTW to northwest of Ottawa.

That was a pretty prolific north trend in that one. I remember about 3-4 days out NYC was getting fringed or almost nothing....esp on GFS which always was too far south on those. But even Euro was decently south. Then it was like every single run it bumped north. The old ETA of course was obsessed with hammering SNE and turned out mostly correct.

I had 43” in ‘11-‘12. But the winter itself was so bad I would rate it near the bottom (though above a few others). I def can’t rate it worst overall with getting a 17 inch snowstorm. Winters like ‘01-‘02, ‘99-‘00, and ‘88-‘89 are definitely worse. This year also has a 17 inch snowstorm and it occurred during the holiday season. So subjectively to me that makes it better than ‘11-12 even if the rest of the season is the same. Even though the 2011 storm was more anomalous. I love holiday season snow so it’s a personal preference. ‘79-‘80 also had a very anomalous snowstorm on 10/10/79 but that winter would have ranked probably 2nd worst on my list if I had lived through it. But both ‘11-12 and this year can’t rate lower than those putrid ones I listed above. I might rate ‘90-91 lower than this one too.

Yeah I didn’t even mention 1988/1989 which is probably the worst winter I ever lived through. Before my time there is 1979-1980 and then a whole slew of putrid winters leading up to 1955.

It’s been one of the worst periods on record since New Years around here...the numbers speak for themselves...but I could never rank the overall winter near 2011-2012 or 2001-2002 or even winters like 1994-1995 or 1999-2000....can’t just ignore the snows we had in December with cover nearly the whole month during the holiday season. None of those other seasons had any period like that. I’d I lived on the coast where the snow was less and melted pretty quickly then I’d definitely feel different. Anyways, hopefully we get a couple bombs to finish the season.

Only 4F at ORH....if they somehow don't fall below 0F during that cold shot next week..it will be the first year they failed to fall below 0F since 2011-2012 winter. 4F would also be the highest minimum temp for a winter since 2001-2002 when it only fell to 10F (!!!!). It would actually rank 4th all time....1931-1932 and 1936-1937 only dropped to 5F. 2001-2002 is in a class by itself. We'll see about next Friday though....some of the guidance is pretty damned cold. Even if it doesn't get below 0F, it could easily get below 4F.

No, go ahead and put the shovel and snow blower away.

I usually toss coop snowfall if I notice frequently that their daily snowfall is simply the depth increase from the day before. That tells me they probably aren’t even using a clear snow board even if they’re measuring only once per day.

I still like the look post-2/25. Ridge further east than those -EPO/-PNA patterns we’ve seen. All the ensembles have it...obviously whether it comes to fruition is another story....and of course, even if it does, nobody will care unless they get snow in their backyard out of it.

Yeah it probably enhances the variance a little bit. But overall it’s def been more variant than the prior 60-80 years. Like I don’t think measuring technique would change Boston’s top 3 winter rankings.

Feb 26 and beyond.

That 1925-1955 period is also really underrated for how bad it was....ORH looks like that too....it basically looks like the 1980s except it lasts 30 years.

I'd really like to see that primary get down toward about CLE....then it would get the Dikembe Mutombo treatment as it tries to slice into NY State. But those seem impossible this year.

Primary is still in Lake Huron....pretty much dung for most outside of CAD region og Maine...maybe in parts of NH....but yeah, it's better than 00z, mostly because the whole thing is weaker.

BOS had a pretty nice run from 2012-2013 until last year. Even '15-'16 they nearly got to normal.