ORH_wxman

This is like the equivalent of a good cold snap in an otherwise torch winter....only in reverse.

Yeah my son is outside in shorts and tshirt right now....awesome. Probably our last above-normal high temp day until at least 5/15 or so.

Classic post-FROPA downslope dandy where the airmass lags the wind change.

Congrats Jimmy and ackwaves on the NAM? lol nija'd by Scooter

The PV is a bust if it doesn’t get down into the teens.

Lol the dude is trying to spin his horrendous call after the 4/19 snow event. He specifically talked about the cold source in Canada being exhausted. The opposite had happened and we’re seeing an epic reload.

Lol this is classic.

Unbelievable. The euro run is just ridiculous looking. Glad ive been outside most of today enjoying it. Not gonna be back for a long time.

Flakes on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning?

Cranky nails it 5 weeks late?

Fixed your post

Sub-520 thicknesses 10 days into May. Ridiculous.

No more cold loading into Canada after 4/20.

Lol. Unreal. At least we can still pop 55-60 with -1 or -2 850s this time of year if it’s sunny, but good grief. Gonna be like pulling teeth to get a 70F in the first half of May aside from this weekend maybe. Where the hell was this pattern in winter? What an epic period we would have had if the last 6 weeks had happened in February/early March. Theres gonna be another snow threat I bet. Prob NNE but if there’s ever a pattern to try and get flakes down here in May, this would be it.

Yeah I think it was 22 out of 92 days.

The Euro ensemble mean 540 line moves south of BOS/ORH at 96 hours and doesn't move north again until 276 hours. Over a full week in May...basically the entire 2nd week of May, not even the first week. How screwed up is that?

I figure you will get a kick out of today's daily Euro 200 hour clown show:

There may be something to that....I was just checking over ORH's daily record low maxes (these tend to be less sensitive to changing land use than minimums) and about 22% of them during the March/April/May months are from 2000-onward. That is despite the period of record only being 20 years out of 125 (about 16%) and despite climate warming. We wouldn't expect 22% vs a 16% rate to be that weird in a static climate, but it definitely is a little suspicious in a warming climate. We'd expect later years to be underrepresented and instead it is the opposite. They are over-represented.

Cranky said the cold was going to be cut off from the CONUS after 4/20

Too early to get a good handle on the low. We need to wait until mid/late June. Jaxa (and Area) at this point in 2012 was higher than 1996 (the highest min year on record).

Gotta love the 516 thicknesses over NYC for 5/10

Yeah, I mean I could have waited until the ensembles come out, but that is less fun, lol. The ensembles have actually trended stronger with the anomaly in that area the past several cycles. I highly doubt the intensity of the OP verifies, but that is pretty cold stuff over Canada on the ensembles.

Cranky says there's no cold left in Canada after 4/20

yeah.....The problem with a mean trough over us is you just end up with too many days like today....yeah, when you get lucky and end up under high pressure, it's' a bluebird 60/32 type day...and it feels nice when you're out at peak heating. But that mixed with days like today is why we get -5 to -10 departures consistently for weeks. Your "nice days" are still average or below average. Hoping we break the streak of this weekend and pop a couple positive departures....but it looks like we go back into the shitter again after that.

Lol. Cranky kept saying that Canada cold was done after like 4/20 so we were done. Yet we somehow keep advecting in 530 thicknesses every 4-5 days.