ORH_wxman

RPM is a whiff SE....lol. Ukie/GFS were also whiffs SE. Pretty big spread for <3 days out. I think the more amped solutions have the right idea, but by how much is the huge question. Even an 80/20 compromise betwene something like the NAM and the whiffs puts much of SNE into accumulating snow. It's also possible that the models are so out to lunch that even the amped solutions like the NAM and Canadian aren't far enough north and this ends up an SLK to Powderfreak snowstorm. We've seen that happen before too inside of 72 hours.

Lol...it's a 66 hour NAM....25 miles makes a massive difference.

Not much...ends as snow...maybe a coating to an inch?

NAM crushes NW MA, the chickens into Maine this run.

In ORH, there was relatively little tree damage up on winter hill, but once you were down below about 600 feet it was really noticeable. Pretty amazing actually.

Airmass is legit on the back side of the system....wouldn't be surprised to see even the coast flash to heavy snow for a brief time before it ends.

Lol. NAM is legit snowstorm for many in SNE. That’s so cold down in the 900-925 layer once the system gets going. It’s like -3C at 925mb.

Lol NAM has advisory snows for SE MA tomorrow night.

Lol. He’s actually pretty hilarious. It’s gotta be an act.

Airmass is pretty marginal tomorrow night. Leaning against any accumulating snow on that unless it really rips for a bit. Maybe mangled flakes mixing in though. Friday night has a more legit airmass so that won’t take as much to produce.

Not out until just after 8. DST FTL.

So GFS and Ukie are whiffs. GGEM/Euro/NAM are huggers. Split the difference...congrats on the historic snowstorm Scooter.

Kevin's summer 1816 repeat finally comes true the year he doesn't predict it?

Yeah thats SE of previous runs. Sfc low might technically not be, but that doesn't mater as much as the upper air stuff which is def SE of the 00z run.

Looked like a colder version of 5/18/02 setting up (2002 panel is on the bottom)

Convective temps are in the 30s across some spots and at least in the 40s elsewhere. TTs around 60 or even higher(!!). Good chance of thunder where any cells pop. GFS actually shows CAPE getting to near 700 J/KG over central/western MA, lol. Hopefully it keeps up on model guidance. Still 4 days out so things could change.

Yeah that has slowly trended SE....could see interior hills flip over before ending. Then we get the chance at cold pool thunder snow showers and thunder graupel showers on Saturday.

It’s probably helped...esp lower down..but we should also remember it’s been very cold during the period where the fastest melt-off occurs. Usually all that snow is releasing really quickly in late April and early May but we’ve been really cold during that period.

Friday could get dicey PM. Go morning but it will be chilly.

Thursday should be mostly dry. Could be a passing sprinkle and some clouds around, but I wouldn't cancel a birthday golf outing over it.

I'm hoping for several cells to produce thunder on Saturday....that would be fun.

Saturday is insane...516 thicknesses. Not sure we've ever seen a cold pool aloft that intense in May. Basically anything that falls will be frozen on Saturday....definitely the type of day where even if there is sunshine, a shower passing would immediately produce graupel at temps in the low/mid 40s (ad temps would fall quickly too).

It’s definitely not just a 36 hour cold shot. The 2/14/16 cold shot you reference had highs in the 50s a couple days later. That would be like rebounding back into the 70s and 80s in a couple days.

Kevin is in classic “polish the turd” mode. We see it in winter when we have a crap pattern with +10 departures. He will say highs in the 40s isn’t that bad and try and squeeze out a marginal snow chance that has like a 10% shot at verifying. But deep down he knows it sucks. The weekend was great. It’s gonna be a while before we see that again.

Yeah here it is....it's not the same as the current progged pattern with the whole northeast corner of the country under sub-530 thicknesses. Cranky just doesn't want to admit how dead wrong he was on the cold reload into Canada. If we got a low in that position with precip in this coming airmass, we'd be 8-10 degrees colder than last year's storm.