ORH_wxman

Nah, canceling would mean we suspend or ban or 5-post them.

I’m anointing Bob as the new Lenin....don’t worry, I’m his understudy Stalin lurking in the shadows waiting to take over.

It’s tough because the pattern looks good going forward...so as each threat fails, you get the urge to punt but if you are looking objectively at the pattern, you know you can’t because it is still favorable going into early February.

There hasn’t been a signature torch like you’d normally see with that type of departure over a half-month period. It’s been consistently pseudo-winter like with highs in the 30s but lows even more above normal. Very monotonous in the spread.

Amazing how much Jan ‘69 is showing up on the objective analogs these days...you hate to see it. Lets hope the season follows the same progression as that one did.

You are definitely being censored right now. I would agree genuinely as a person who really hates censorship. It’s also a weather forum so not a lot of sympathy from me. We used to never allow even financial talk in here...only started when covid happened. We always told people to go to off topic. We’ve historically been fine with marginally related wx stuff ala “what do people think of this type of snow blower, lawn mower, etc, etc”.

Yep. I’d ask this question first....how many times have you had 3 subpar seasons in a row? I’ll bet the answer is very few. For ORH I can only think of 4 times going back to 1950. (Btw I defined “subpar” as anything below the 40th percentile...so if ORH had 64” in a season, that is considered “normal” in my classification...even though technically it is slightly below the long term mean of 69”) 1. ‘97-98 through ‘99-‘00 2 ‘88-89 through ‘91-‘92 (this is 4 consecutive...the only time) 4. ‘78-‘79 through ‘80-‘81 3. ‘52-‘53 through ‘54-‘55 So our sample size here is actually 4. If you took it at face value, that means we’d have a 1 in 4 chance of getting 4 in a row. However, we know small sample sizes aren’t representative of the longer term probability, and the chances of getting 4 in a row are actually close to 50/50 unless there is some meteorological reason to believe that the 4th season is biased toward above normal snowfall after 3 subpar seasons. I certainly cannot come to that conclusion statistically with a mere sample size of 4 trials. We first need to reach 3 seasons in a row. That’s far from a done deal considering many spots are actually above normal still.

Saw that. Looked like they were ground zero for yesterday/early today. Now the best upslope shifting north but even the southern/central greens should get some for the next few days. Great pattern there coming up too as next week will feature a lot of upslope while we whine about lack of synoptic snow everywhere else.

Wow nice. Great event for the southern/central greens. Great to lay down that thick base before the fluffier stuff. Northern greens will catch up over next couple days.

We’ve allowed people to try and post about covid literally like 5 different times in this subforum before intervening after it devolves. At this point it’s like an abusive relationship. Time to cut ties rather than thinking “this time it will work!”. We have been by far the most lenient.

Jeez, do people have these responses queued up for hours? LOL. I’m seeing posts quotes that were deleted 45 min ago.

Sorry for the mass deletes but we’re done with Covid in this thread. Always goes the same way. Ya’ll know where to go.

In about 5 minutes

Reggae vibe from that SR pic. I’m hoping to sneak up there later this winter. Glad to see they got smoked. A few more SWFE snowfalls would do wonders up there. Had a slow start to the season.

Really need the northern stream to dig more like 2 or 3 days ago if we want more than an inch or two. Still possible....but it’s also still possible that it gets even weaker and turns into flurries.

I had 1” on 1/1 on the front end, 2” on 1/3, a half inch on 1/5, and a coating on 1/14. This is what it would be like.

You know, I was actually thinking the other day “this was pretty normal when I was growing up”....granted, I grew up during some lean snow times including the worst 4 consecutive year stretch on record at ORH, but still. It was totally normal to go weeks with nothing except maybe an inch here or 2-3 inches there and never anything significant. Scott and I used to joke about how stoked we’d get when Mets were forecasting like 3-6” or 4-8”. That seemed like a HUGE storm back then. These days, we’re pissing and whining when we get 12” and someone else is getting a 30” mesoband. How spoiled rotten we have become. It’s funny how if we just keep getting skunked all this week, then maybe we score a relatively modest 6” on the 1/26 threat, we’d still be above average for snowfall. Lol. It’s like we collectively couldn’t recover from the sting of the Grinch storm. I’d bet the tenure of the season would be 100% different if we spent the last week of December and first two weeks of January with a sublimating 8” glacier left from the 12/17 storm.

Here’s a good mind-bender....BOS/ORH/BDL are all still above average for snowfall to date. Granted, BOS is only 0.3” above normal, so they will fall behind after today, but it still supports your point to an even greater extent than you were making.

Good example of how the chaos within the larger longwave flow can easily work against you. 1/4, 1/12.... Even yesterday was an example...we really weren’t far from a big region-wide event. But we had just enough weakness in downstream blocking and of course the antecedent airmass was just bad enough that we got skunked down here while NNE had to go to elevation to see good snows (minus further north into Maine). I still haven’t given up on 1/22 being ok...doesn’t look like it will be the Miller B we hoped for, but still could trend better into maybe an advisory system. But we haven’t caught any of those breaks yet this winter. The one good system we had was locked into place like a week out. We weren’t hoping for some sort of break to get it.

Because they could easily not happen. Clipper for Monday is there but it hasn’t trended any better the last 24h....hopefully it does soon...otherwise prob just a few snow showers outside if he upslope regions. 1/21-22 is still there for sure but I didn’t like seeing the southern vort screwing us on the Euro. Both of those threats could fail.

Man, it is nuking on the SR cams. Awesome stuff. North country needs a good base builder.

Southwest trash ejected at the perfect time to prevent digging but also not able to phase with northern stream.

Nuking big flakes on your cam. That circular stone yardscape piece is buried now. Not sure how much was showing before but you prob have at least 6”.

Looks like @amarshall made a good gamble to go up to the Loaf this weekend.

5+ feet in 10 days. Nice.