ORH_wxman

12/11 looks like crap....prob just a FROPA....maybe a few showers (maybe some wet snow interior higher terrain if we dont get the BL torched too much ahead of it)....you are prob thinking of the one behind it 12/12-13.

That 12/11 clipper is basically a glorified FROPA at this point if its gonna track into CYUL But EPS looked better for the 12/12-13 threat behind it. That had some decently snowy members in there.

Good spot for it right now. The 12/12 system has been kind of amped on ensembles.

Most of us would take 80-90% of normal at this point. After 3 straight seasons in the 60% range, that would feel like a blockbuster.

Garbage month. Had one decent snow event and a pretty decent ice storm near the end of the month.

I’d prob extend that personally a bit to Xmas week. If we don’t have anything banked or imminent, then it would be another shaft job…..we have a chance this week before a little tiny relaxation (if it all), but then there’s clearly a reload for another favorable stretch doing into Xmas week. If we strike out on both periods, then we’re just living in the late 1980s/early 1990s paradigm again.

The Great Lakes and N plains have actually seen an increase in snow cover in the last 40-50 years. We’ve def been on the ugly side the last decade and CC enhances it…but there’s always a natural variability aspect to it too. I know I’ve made it a point to show that the warmest anomalies in North America outside of the arctic over the past decade were right here into SE Canada.

8F with wind. Not bad.

He's already melting down and we're one week after Thanksgiving. If Taunton gets a 6"+ snow event prior to Xmas even in a coldish December, that's a win. My guess is there's a reasonable shot of that happening this year given the pattern outlook. I don't blame Brett totally though....his formative snow weenie years were very prolific in December even in SE MA. The 2000s were ridiculous relative to climo across SNE, but especially in SE MA in December. Our generation was hard-wired into being cynical about snow given what we had to deal with in our formative years.

ORH had back to back single digit lows in Nov 2018. So you know it wasn't fake.

Looks pretty weak. But maybe we can grab a C-1” deal.

Looked worse than 12z. GFS prob on crack.

At least we aren’t watching Pensacola FL get a blizzard like last year.

Congrats Scooter on that run. But yeah, thats a solid mid to high end advisory type event on that depiction for a large majority of SNE/CNE.

18z GFS looking quite healthy through 66 hours with the northern stream shortwave digging in MN....this run might be just as good or even better than 12z.

18z NAM in clown range looking pretty decent again for Sunday night. Maybe we can slowly trend this into at least a measurable event for a lot of folks. Beats nothing.

Also no real torchy weather in sight (any brief “cutting” clippers aside). Have to watch the mid-month torch potential but it looks more and more muted for our region versus plains and southeast.

Lot of nickel and dimes but it wouldn’t take much to get a little heftier on one of them. The Dec 11-12 could end up bigger.

Next week is interesting too on Euro for Dec 11-12.

12z euro trying for Sunday night. Maybe a C-1” deal. Esp eastern areas. Dig that northern stream a little more and we might pop something closer to GFS.

06z euro was close. Hopefully it ticks a bit better at 12z and then I’ll be more intrigued. We’re kind of due for a solid advisory clipper.

Prob Dec 17, 2020 (cape got screwed but the rest of SNE basically got 10”+)…Jan ‘22 wasn’t that good out west and Feb 2021 really screwed the coast.

GFS is partially phasing the two streams which helps it amplify Sunday night.

3-6” in like 1991 would have half the population storming the grocery stores. I remember back then how massive a 3-6/4-8” storm sounded. Im ok with nickels and dimes over the next week as long as we keep the longer wave pattern advertised. I think we’ll score something bigger at some point. We get a huge -WPO reload too so I don’t think the general cold pattern is going anywhere regardless of whether we relax a touch mid-month or not.

I honestly wonder if the last few winters are playing into it. We’ve had so much marginal temps and warmth since 2022. Last year was colder but we still had marginal temps in several storms. I think it will take a few bigger events to clear out the stench/hangover. Also to be fair, the sfc temps looked pretty warm last event…but they busted much colder. I would prefer they just say the temps are marginal as the reason and not talk about December sun angles.