ORH_wxman

Unless this ends up as a total model failure inside of 30 hours, you're pretty much a lock for 8"+

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily.

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run.

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel.

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance.

The only time I would bring in sun angle in December is if we have like a light glazing situation with temps near freezing....that actually happened in the Dec 2008 ice storm....we were having trouble accreting during the day on 12/11 with temps of like 31F, but it went to town when the sun set. Maybe it would also make a difference if you were having like a steady light snow near 32F. So maybe in the first few hours of this storm it could have a marginal impact, but it's not doing anything once you get to moderate rates.

Def still a signal there on EPS

December sun angle will get you every time.

06z GFS had it pinned in roughly the same spot too. But this is a situation where like 10 miles could be the difference between 10" of cement and 2" of slop.

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we have temps near 0C in that layer.

Euro is prob gonna win the compromise on the track closer to the BM…we’ll see. But it def was decently too cold in thermal profiles. But it’s had that issue for a few seasons now.

Yeah I think we’ve narrowed the goalposts down to just 25 miles or so but that still leaves a tough forecast because of how marginal the thermal profiles are across such a large area of more densely populated area. Metrowest down through Hartford region is gonna be a hard forecast.

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now.

3k is pretty similar but not as crazy prolific. Still a decent area of 12”+

Gives ORH 2 feet, lol. What a model.

We’re gonna get NAM’d this run.

GFS looks just a smidge colder near here than 18z but at this point it’s noise unless it does it again another couple of cycles.

This area is pretty often on the correct side of the “495 gradient” despite being a little inside 495. But so many times I’ve seen huge gradients like 2 towns east. But you do get these events sometimes where it’s really more like ORH is the line…the lower part of the city even might be on the warm side of the gradient. This happened during the ice storm in 2008. Also during the March 2023 Firehose event. Lower elevations literally had 5” of slop and it was like 15” on winter hill and then 2 feet another 5 miles NW. granted, that was the most extreme I’ve seen.

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

These early runs have a been a little flaccid on dynamics. But some of these mesos were also pretty bonkers to begin with. The massive 1-1.5 QPf getting well inland never looked that realistic.

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago.

The ultimate inhibitor is going to be initialization. That’s always the main issue. That’s something that even AI can’t solve easily.

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road.

Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape.

Sorry I meant storm vista. The wx bell isn’t that different than the weathermodels. Some differences on the margins but SV was like a Taunton to Carver jackpot, lol