ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Yeah EPS is still a bit dicey, but it def trended colder in the LR.
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At least the ensembles are still showing that better pattern toward Xmas. 18z today vs 24 hours ago Scandi ridging retrograding as we get closer has been a theme so far this month. Also hard to torch really hard across northern tier when you have a strongly -WPO like we’ve seen.
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Always love temps near 10F with pellets. I’d be fine with it though…plenty of snow before that. ‘94-esque….Jimmy Buffet mele kalikimaka by the time it verifies.
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All kidding aside, that’s a high stakes pattern toward Xmas. Decent trends today of sinking that gradient south so maybe we can actually get a good winter threat near Xmas instead of flamingos and parrots flying overhead.
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No grinch storm this run. We can all exhale
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Yeah also some lower heights in SE Canada (they are never there these days when we need them)....in addition to the ridge being a little flatter at 132h.
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Ridge not quite as good this run on 18z GFS....so we get a scraper on the 12/14 event.
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Yeah probably...warm enough to melt a coating or an inch of snow most likely. Interior elevations N of pike might keep new snow (they also have a current snowpack anyway from 12/2)....but further south and east near 84 and 495 prob low 40s on Wednesday...maybe warmer even further SE.
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May need to watch for a C-1" type deal tomorrow night as that first weakening shortwave moves through ahead of the main clipper shortwave. Could also just be a few flurries...depends if we can saturate the column enough.
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This event is not really like last week other than maybe roughly the same line where you get some accumulation....it's weak with a lot less QPF. It'll be good for high elevations in NNE. PRob mostly a 0.15-0.30" QPF type deal outside of the upslope elevated spots which might see 0.5-0.75"
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Given the background -PDO/Nina, we’ll almost certainly deal with west coast troughing again this winter…but I’d rather roll the dice with it in later January and February versus December. And hopefully it’s not digging into Baja…a lot more manageable when it’s a PAC NW trough.
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That’s a good visual of how the arctic jet strengthens from Siberia to AK/N Canada as that WPO block strengthens. In addition, the stronger WPO block helps force that vortex down south of Aleutians which helps pump the PNA ridge…I think it was @Typhoon Tip who talks about their inverse correlation with a small lag.
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A lot of these solutions are actually in a historically good spot for D6. The key is the trend…if we a slowly amp that ridge a little more, could be a solid event for a chunk of New England…esp southeastern 2/3rds which would include your area. What we don’t want is to see the trend in the ridge regress again.
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The preceding shortwave on the euro also gives like an inch of snow to CT/RI. Icon was more bullish on that first shortwave and other guidance basically puts it through meat grinder so it’s nothing or flurries. But can’t rule that one o it yet either…but the better focus definitely looks like 12/14
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Actually it’s not. I’ve seen him post something looks great and it’s scraping the south coast.
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If you start trending that ridge taller, you could quickly turn that event into something a bit bigger. It would likely be a fast mover…but those cold thickness quick hitters can sometimes be very good.
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Yeah euro has it too. A little suppressed. Nothing crazy but prob advisory type stuff south of pike.
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GGEM has it too...same shortwave as well. Ukie also has it but a little biut of trouble rounding the corner with the vort and amplifying enough to it's a miss wide right save maybe a little light snow for south coast.
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These are the type of cold thickness events that can produce nice rates and fluffy ratios....you get like widespread 4-8"/6-10" totals from third to half an inch of liquid. You'd have a really deep snow growth zone in that type of setup. Now, hopefully we beef it up with more QPF, but at this point...we'd take any decent event to get on the warning scoreboard.
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Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run.
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06z euro was a nice trend for next weekend. Still have that western ridge problem of needing to be a bit more amplitude. There’s time to trend it…really want to see shortwave digging more which is why you want that ridge a little more amped.
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No reason to genuflect…screw the whiners, lol. They are the absolute worst. I’m all for a good melt every now and then, but the constant whining about model runs grates me 100x worse than someone posting nice snowfall pics from up north.
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There’s been a lot of run to run variability on the shortwaves. Any one of them could actually produce but the prerequisite is really getting that western ridge amped up again…it’s flatter than it was yesterday. So hopefully that trends taller again and I’d bet we see some good solutions.
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It’ll get pretty bad in here if we whiff on everything between now and mid-month and then if that relaxation trends back but instead hits closer to Xmas
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Still watching 12/13. It is not a huge signal but it remains on EPS. OP run looked like advisory type potential south of pike…but we’ll want to watch the ridge out west. Amplify that a bit more and this could go higher.
