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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Not overly worried about OP GFS being the ugliest model....it usually is in almost every single major event we have (major = widespread double digits totals). But if other guidance starts running the N stream out ahead, then we'll have a problem.
  2. ORH_wxman
    GFS is gonna be more tepid...missed phasing out west.
  3. ORH_wxman
    ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Seems like PM guidance is trending more toward MA and N CT. Either way looks like a C-1” deal. Maybe a spot 2” for someone if they get lucky.
  5. ORH_wxman
    The ideal solution is to try and keep heights to our northeast semi-low while slamming all that backend vorticity into the trough…that would make the coastal take off and enhance fronto for us….thats the longshot HECS scenario. My guess is we get something imperfect like prolonged overrunning and a very sloped/disorganized coastal. 18z NAM looked like it was trying to trend toward the nirvana solution. Really loading that energy out west but the heights to our north were a bit lower.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS is pretty solid...I think this will increase a bit too as we get closer unless something drastically changes aloft.
  7. ORH_wxman
    It's showing up like that on most soundings....10 to 1 will be way too low to use in this storm imho. I'd go the "cold storm' climo right now of about 14 to 1 but I could see something higher than that too...but you never want to forecast higher unless you're really close with obvious model agreement.
  8. ORH_wxman
    No it wasn’t. They aren’t that different but 06z was def a bit better.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I’ll save you the time
  10. ORH_wxman
    06z was a better solution. 12z got over its skis a bit and the overrunning is kind of disjointed with that trailing energy more than 06z was. They are kind of separate on both solutions but 12z is moreso.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Weren’t we just discussing the euroAI solution? Ineedsnow said over an inch for all of SNE and you said it’s a mid sized snowstorm. I agree some solution like the Icon is fairly mid…maybe 8-12ish…but any of these that are producing inflow and 1-1.5” of QPF is major at minimum.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Over an inch of QPF with those temp profiles is not a “mid sized snowstorm”. That’s major and it’s possible the QPF is underdone a bit in a solution like that. It’s forming a CCB with 40-50 knots of inflow at 850…so there’s definitely mechanics for higher end totals. But even 1.25” of QPF at 14 to 1 is a 17” snowstorm.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Euro skynet gone wild
  14. ORH_wxman
    We used to joke in college that it was “processing” a monster solution as the reason for being late.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Euro is definitely a bit late today.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yes but Thursday/Friday and Sunday (2/1) are far from consistent on guidance.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s prob wrong, esp when diverging from other guidance like that. Ukie loves semi-exotic solutions at random times in the medium range.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I moved the last page of posts about Sunday/Monday to the other thread. It’s gonna get messy in here with other storm signals showing up now for late Jan and early Feb.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Ukie looks a bit more subdued. Still gets that secondary cranking though. The initial overrunning struggles more.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Yes it does look slightly south of 06z.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Does he think it’s a flex to ride a 3-day old forecast when model guidance on the upper air evolution is moving against him? I haven’t read much of him, but doing that makes one come across as not being very scientific or evidence-based.
  22. ORH_wxman
    That’s basically what it is already on the solutions that don’t really energize the coastal (such as the icon at 12z)….but at least if that happens, this is a fantastic airmass and confluence setup to have a SWFE. Maximize the moisture.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Look at those soundings. Super deep DGZ. Even when the lift lowers to 900-950mb, it’s like -10 to 12C temps….congrats Scooter
  24. ORH_wxman
    @TheSnowman just needs to rip out a monster tune for this storm. Just rip it out as loud as you can and you’ll feel better.
  25. ORH_wxman
    We’re like 96-102 hours from start time. I don’t see an issue with making a thread. We can migrate over there at some point today.
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