ORH_wxman

Not buying Reggie

Might be. Dry air will be eating away at the precip shield as it moves ENE. Could be a scenario where SW CT does a lot better than SE MA outside of the Cape.

C-2” deal except maybe south coast and Cape can still get something a little higher.

It’s def possible we are cold around Cmas. That H5 look really needs to be further east for us to furnace.

That’s how this system has gone. Every time we think we’re trending good, we see a step back the next run. Not expecting positive trends to start today, but if they do, then that’s obviously a really good sign…esp for S of pike peeps.

We need another 50-75 miles from scooter to me to you to feel decent. Gotta have the bump today…getting too close.

Lol 06z euro trying to suck us back in.

We really need a more potent vort at this point. Otherwise it feels like a south coast event where they scrape a couple inches and the dry air in tje low levels just sucks the snow out of the sky up north. A lot of Virga probably.

The positive tilt of the trough and having it consistently pressing southeast at the same time is giving me Bruce Willis storm vibes. Where the low levels just try to suck the moisture out of the air even if things look decent at H6-7

Yeah not very impressed by GFS. Getting a bit bleak this far north. South coast to the cape is def still in the game though.

Yeah we get an initial push but that really deeper lift is just getting shunted SE. We need a little more vort energy to put a kink in the flow to try and nudge this just a bit north. But even the initial fronto gets a general 1-3”. Guess that’s better than nothing.

NAM might be a better than 18z

It’s kind of a tease because if you amped this up just a little, you’d probably have quite an intense fronto band with good ratios…difference between a 1-2” scraper and a 5-8” fluff job.

Slightly improvements on rgem and GFS but we’re at the point where it can’t trend back. It has to keep ticking better for this to be a solid event outside of the south coast and far SE/Cape.

It has to be pretty low. In fact, it might be hard to find another 16 year stretch there.

Only at 42h and it’s the NAM, but it doesn’t look like 18z is going to help us.

The last 5 years have been pretty bad so there’s some recency bias…the historic pattern of up and down Decembers looks like Mt Mansfield in comparison.

March definitely has a higher standard deviation of snowfall than December. You can get some absolute monster totals in March but usually less likely to get those in December. (ORH is similar) They average out close but March a little snowier and also more likely to get a big dog in March. December probably has more “near average” months than March does.

You really need to be outside of 495 and north of I-84 to get higher than 50/50 chances for White Christmas climatologically in SNE. ORH was around 60-65%. Obviously recent years have been bad. I think last year in 2024 is the only White Xmas in the 2020s. For ORH, then you have: 2019, 2017, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2005, 2002, 2000. You could maybe count 2020 on a technicality (the snow wasn’t 100% wiped out by 12z which is the measurement time but certainly by 18z it was) So we’re sitting at about 50% since 2000.

Most of the soundings on other guidance has a really deep saturated snow growth layer too. This one has good ratio potential if we can just get that lift in here.

EPS QPF 50-75 miles would be big for a lot of the population

You’re in a good spot for this one I think. Prob like a 2” floor but with some decent upside/ceiling.

Euro didn’t even look that different from other guidance. It was a little skimpier on QPF down near Cape but honestly, when is it not? GFS trended NW but it’s actually still a considerably worse outcome than the Euro. Euro has been a bit too far south on multiple systems so far so it doesn’t take a lot of mental gymnastics to think this could verify a little more favorable than it’s currently depicting. I’d like to see GFS keep bumping NW though.

Lot of posters on tilt already on 12/11

At least it didn’t revert to 00z but would’ve liked to see another tick improvement from 06z