ORH_wxman

Yes....we should all start our own regional forecasting company once the govt goes bankrupt and they close NWS. I'm wondering how much the current sfc temp situation will cause any "drag" on the WAA at 900-950mb....they are obviously a couple to 3 thousand feet above the sfc, but we both know that a denser airmass than advertised underneath will cause some friction or drag on the advection of that 900-950 layer....it won't matter on a huge scale, but for those where 1C makes the difference, it could be a big deal.

Lol yeah...I got married and had kids, so it had to be close enough to work. Still not a bad location (and a bit of elevation near 400 feet) but not nearly as good as winter hill was....that place was a relative snow magnet with the 900+ elevation.

Clipper/redeveloper sig is definitely there on EPS

Nice snow map on the HRRR (I'm the red dot)

3k NAM has a decent ending in E MA....prob a couple inches anyway. Esp near and N of pike.

Wetbulbing down fast in this stuff. Down to 26.5F. Wonder if we can hold off 900-950 layer a little longer than originally advertised. HRRR and RAP have been getting stickier with that 0C line at 925 moving north with each run. I think ORH over to Ray is looking a little better than 6-12 hours ago.

Looks like CF is right near 128 maybe a little inside 128 once north of pike. We’ll see how this moves during the day. Could be meaningful early on.

Ripping fatties and sticking quickly in this convective looking stuff

Mesos def cooled overnight. 06z NAM was still a bit warm b but other guidance went colder. Gonna be an interesting forecast for the N&W of 495/90 area.

lol, where you are? I woulda waited. You were so close even on some of the torchier runs.

That was a pretty cold GFS run. A lot of snow in 495 region. Skeptical given the mesos but we’ll see if they cool at all.

ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks.

Well not all systems are gonna have the marginal thermal profiles that we see tomorrow...no guarantees, but the larger scale layout for next week looks a lot colder. We have climo working in our favor too as we go deeper into December. Originally, we weren't expecting anything for 12/2 (we kept saying it looks better after about 12/3ish), but then this system kind of snuck into a colder airmass about a week ago on guidance...so we were hoping to score a bonus event early.

GFS looking better for the 12/10-12/12 period...there's a couple of shortwaves in there....and those won't be figured out until later, but good things happen when we amplify that western ridge a bit like on the 18z run.

Hoping model guidance underestimates the density of this cold dome over us tonight...could a make a difference when we're talking like 1C in the BL. Guess we'll see on the 00z and 06z runs.

EPS is def more aggressive than other guidance trying to get a few inches in here on Saturday. A potential bigger threat would be middle of next week around the 10th-11th....but that one is all over the place. Lets see if we can amplify that ridge a little more out west....because we have a nice -NAO and some low heights in SE Canada which bodes well for actually trying to hold a high in place.

NAM coming in a little flatter so far than 12z

It’s def had a cold bias in the medium range the last few years. It especially does when we’re talking these SWFE or WAA type storms. The old euro actually had a slight warm bias in the medium range but it was still the best model by a lot.

One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike.

Yeah that’s further SE than pivotal by a decent amount. Sv is awful.

Euro a slight tick warmer than 06z...matches GFS basically.

He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event.

Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look.

Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h