ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run.
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06z euro was a nice trend for next weekend. Still have that western ridge problem of needing to be a bit more amplitude. There’s time to trend it…really want to see shortwave digging more which is why you want that ridge a little more amped.
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No reason to genuflect…screw the whiners, lol. They are the absolute worst. I’m all for a good melt every now and then, but the constant whining about model runs grates me 100x worse than someone posting nice snowfall pics from up north.
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There’s been a lot of run to run variability on the shortwaves. Any one of them could actually produce but the prerequisite is really getting that western ridge amped up again…it’s flatter than it was yesterday. So hopefully that trends taller again and I’d bet we see some good solutions.
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It’ll get pretty bad in here if we whiff on everything between now and mid-month and then if that relaxation trends back but instead hits closer to Xmas
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Still watching 12/13. It is not a huge signal but it remains on EPS. OP run looked like advisory type potential south of pike…but we’ll want to watch the ridge out west. Amplify that a bit more and this could go higher.
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It’s still there, just not a blizzard on the OP run like 18z…more of a high end advisory or low end warning look on 06z. I’d like to see a bit more amped western ridge to dig this thing more but the system is pretty evident on guidance.
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Amplifying ridge over west coast plus a decaying -NAO block near Hudson/Baffin and already a cold antecedent airmass equals good things happening for us usually. I think this one will be on the models quite a bit over the next couple days…let’s get the signal even stronger.
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If that happened verbatim, I might need to chase that in Yarmouth, lol. That looks like a grid collapser on the Cape.
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Anyways. Def potential there. Good to see an OP run blow it up nicely. It’s been showing up on a decent number of ensemble members the last couple days.
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First shortwave on 12/12. The second one for 12/13-14 is the nuke.
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Might be a nuke this run.
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That’s a big focus there. Gfs looking like Euro more now with that second disturbance.
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I feel like prob 2/3rds of the time in this type of blocking pattern, that clipper would go south of us or even tracking over us would work with the antecedent airmass. Oh well…we’ll have additional chances though. You just hope you finally hit on a couple before Xmas.
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12/13-14 looks decent on EPS. That’s really our one hope in the next week. It’s too bad we somehow get a clipper to run into Ottawa next Wednesday despite a monster west based NAO block….thats the kind of stuff that’s been happening to us.
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Temps been rising since the overcast moved in.
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Hope for 12/13 to work out. Too bad the Sunday night clipper couldn’t dig a bit more like the GFS was trying to show yesterday.
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Pond skating of yore this month. Serious lack of any torches on guidance (aside from a quick mini warm sector from Ottawa clippers…but warm sectors with sub-540 thicknesses just don’t bite very hard)
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It would be nice to get a little deeper saturation. Then you’d be more inclined to think someone would sneak an advisory amount in a narrow area but it’s prob just coatings to an inch.
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12/11 looks like crap....prob just a FROPA....maybe a few showers (maybe some wet snow interior higher terrain if we dont get the BL torched too much ahead of it)....you are prob thinking of the one behind it 12/12-13.
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That 12/11 clipper is basically a glorified FROPA at this point if its gonna track into CYUL But EPS looked better for the 12/12-13 threat behind it. That had some decently snowy members in there.
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Good spot for it right now. The 12/12 system has been kind of amped on ensembles.
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Most of us would take 80-90% of normal at this point. After 3 straight seasons in the 60% range, that would feel like a blockbuster.
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Garbage month. Had one decent snow event and a pretty decent ice storm near the end of the month.
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I’d prob extend that personally a bit to Xmas week. If we don’t have anything banked or imminent, then it would be another shaft job…..we have a chance this week before a little tiny relaxation (if it all), but then there’s clearly a reload for another favorable stretch doing into Xmas week. If we strike out on both periods, then we’re just living in the late 1980s/early 1990s paradigm again.
