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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yeah mean either but also not sold on the low going up your Fanny or even Canal runners. Tough forecast.
  2. ORH_wxman
    NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Good news is the EPS has been manhandling the GEFS for the early December period. GEFS has been caving to EPS when it gets to like D10-11-12. Hopefully that continues because EPS looks really good. Even popping western ridging week 2 where a more substantial system could develop in that look.
  4. ORH_wxman
    All of these H5 looks (not including the NAM which goes crazy deep and consolidated) are trending toward this partial phase with northern stream and the vort gets sheared and attenuates…this is turning this system pretty ugly from an organization standpoint. I’d like to see a trend back toward keeping the southern vort a little more independent longer at 00z tonight but I’m becoming skeptical we will see that.
  5. ORH_wxman
    I’m tossing the NAM. Even the crazy GFS runs weren’t that amped.
  6. ORH_wxman
    They are gonna be really bad near the isothermal mix line. But I think they will be fine over the interior and comfortably north of the 0C 925-850 zone.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it has 6”+ here. I’m still pretty pessimistic for warning snows but maybe advisory has a decent chance.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Yes. But prob just advisory snows.
  9. ORH_wxman
    It’s prob gonna be a compromise lime usual. But evena compromise isn’t that great because the trend has been to keep the midlevels kind of open. So it’s gonna be weaker with dynamics and QPF.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yep still shunts east like 06z. Kind of ugly. Would be cold enough across a lot of SNE but flaccid rates mean 2-4” type deal or even less near coast.
  11. ORH_wxman
    It’s still not as phased as those other solutions but keep an eye on trends.
  12. ORH_wxman
    12z euro looks more phased so I’m thinking we’re gonna get the big WAA push ahead of it instead of turning things to the east quicker. If that trend continues, it probably turns into a mostly non-event for SNE.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the Ukie is quite flaccid with rates. Not gonna be much warning snow on that look.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Euro is keeping that southern vort independent of the northern stream for quite a bit longer. These more amped models are trying to phase earlier so you get a big WAA surge out ahead of it.
  15. ORH_wxman
    GGEM was even slower than the GFS to turn the low and midlevels out of the east. And it’s because of how it handles the vort. It keeps a strong vort tracking through western NY. You aren’t getting big snowstorms for a good chunk of New England like that.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Similar but def warmer.
  17. ORH_wxman
    That was a trend better for SNE than previous runs. Still warmish but it at least holds snow for longer…gives you maybe advisory snows instead of a quick coating.
  18. ORH_wxman
    It’s not developing the 850-925 lows as quickly as those colder looks. It just keeps everything ripping out of the south. At 78h, it has a closed 925 low off Delmarva but it’s due south winds here. Zero turning of the winds early on. Euro has a closed low off Delmarva at 925 with winds almost out of due east.
  19. ORH_wxman
    This run will be a bit less zonked than 06z it looks like.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That’s what it did in BOS. It had like -1C to -2C at 925 there. I agree this is a massively heavy lift for BOS but that’s how it would have to go. 00z euro rates and temp profile
  21. ORH_wxman
    Watch the 00z euro verify now.
  22. ORH_wxman
    We had this a few times last year…models becoming more divergent inside of 4 days. Seeing the euro go so flat at 06z to almost whiffing and then seeing monster amped solutions at the same time from other guidance….
  23. ORH_wxman
    Meanwhile the ARW is so flat there’s basically no storm.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Here’s the meat of the storm with the real rates on the 00z euro….paste zone is prob more like SE MA to interior SE CT on that look…interior MA to interior N CT is prob a degree or two cold enough to not be too pasty
  25. ORH_wxman
    The thing is, if you amped the euro solution from 00z just a bit more, then you and me would prob see a lot more paste, Kevin since we’d be closer to 0C from like 900mb to surface. But if it’s more like -2C then it’s gonna be more powdery.
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