ORH_wxman

2 feet is pretty damned rare up here….even 20-burger only happened about a dozen times in ORH. But keeping in the spirit of the discussion, Feb ‘58 is prob the only other one I can think of. Not sure if Mar 1960 got decent snow into ATL but it def did in the Carolinas.

Only had to wait 4 years for SE MA to reclaim the jackpot capital of the region.

We’re getting a pseudo El Niño pattern in a Niña February. That is so weird to see on all the guidance.

What a crush job for Scooter that run.

I doubt this storm will have those types of crazy snowfall gradients. There will obviously be some enhanced areas but prob more like someone getting 19” or 20” versus 15” instead of 25-burgers 10 miles away from a foot. The massive thump should be relatively uniform 10-15” and then anything on top of that will probably be Monday onshore flow stuff.

You’re in a great spot. Both for CF enhancement during the WAA thump and then for onshore flow on Monday.

Yeah I think 10 to 1 will definitely be too low to use in this storm unless you end up getting a prolonged period of sleet (seems unlikely for 95% of this forum) I’d prob go about 14 to 1 for the storm average. There’s gonna be a bit of wind too…not a lot but enough to prob keep us from stacking perfect dendrites.

Prob 2” QPF on south shore if you allowed it to go another panel

NAM is gonna be good for Monday

Def a bit more confluence so far. But it was pretty jacked at 06z so not totally surprising.

Most is going to fall between about 4pm Sunday and 2am Monday. That’s 1-2” per hour stuff.

06z euro QPF for moneypitmike

Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF.

Congrats Scooter on 2 feet on the Ukie

Yeah I think your first guess is pretty good.

It’s clearly using some sort of ratio formula in addition to the QPF since that’s way more than 10 to 1 model consensus would imply.

Yes. I think some of these maps are on the aggressive side at the moment. Not that 20”+ is implausible here, but I think we’d need some things to go right for that to happen based on current guidance.

I don’t think we’ll see a 00z icon solution again. But we could see light precip on easterly flow overperform with high ratios. We’ll have a better idea of if that happens once we get inside 48h

Reggie looked like it was redeveloping a lot of low level precip at 84h.

The messenger shuffles are usually in coastals. Not SWFEs. Though this is a little bit of a hybrid. More SWFE, but there’s also a crazy anomalous airmass too.

Oh you’ll benefit from it but the best would be further up the slope towards ORH airport and Holden/Paxton/Leceister

21 year anniversary for one of the GOATs in SE MA and perhaps THE GOAT on the Cape. It was kind of meh west of ORH but what a ferocious storm for the east. The winds were very strong in this one and the airmass was exceptional. It was similar to the airmass this weekend.

Yeah those are the areas that would do better than others on Monday if we can keep solid easterly low level flow. South shore, Cape Ann, and eastern slopes of ORH hills. And then a bit of enhancement for anyone just west of CF…that’s kind of a wildcard for everyone’s forecast. Could produce a decent amounte of fluff on top of the rest of the storm.

The slow increase in QPF is a good sign right now too. In a lot of our higher end storms, they went from lower end “major” (like 8-14/10-15 type) on guidance into that 12-18/15-20 zone as we got inside 3 days. I agree with @Typhoon Tip that there’s sneaky potential on Monday with the lower level onshore flow being forced into the arctic dome…it’s one of those things that looks like mood snow or an additional 1-3” on guidance but then reality is 20 to 1 hooked aggregates that someone grabs an additional 7-8” on 0.37 of QPF….your snow growth zone is basically from the sfc to 700mb during that time so the lift being mostly low level doesn’t hurt as much as usual. Im still pretty ambiguous on how that will play out though. If we don’t keep the flow onshore, then it won’t be much but if we do, then things get more interesting.