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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example.
  2. ORH_wxman
    It's kind of wild that just taking a random loop of the 06z GFS, we have like 3-4 distinct shortwaves over the next 10 days that dive into the eastern US and none of them can produce any meaningful QPF. Hopefully that changes, but this is quickly turning into a very dry winter if we can't get these things to produce anything.
  3. ORH_wxman
    I will say that the EPS continues to get snowier and snowier in the LR. They never got too bullish about the 1/15-1/20 period but they been really liking the period after that. So for us masochists who like tracking these things, that would be your beacon of hope.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah we’re in bad shape for areas that can’t make it up with a couple of decent warning events. The funny part is the pattern still looks totally serviceable with plenty of cold around and nearby in S Canada but if we’re not getting any of these shortwaves to play ball, it’s all meaningless. Can’t buy an event to actually verify.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Maybe we can grab a below zero low or two with bare ground with the post MLK pattern.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Well you got your wish with the troll thread. Congrats.
  7. ORH_wxman
    all joking aside, that’s a problem with these more recent runs starting with the 18z Euro. The H5 trough isn’t deepening as further south as earlier runs.
  8. ORH_wxman
    She gone…maybe.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Clown range NAM doesn’t look bad.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Not the exact same setup but seeing some of these paltry depictions despite a deep closed ULL to our south reminds me a bit of the model fumbling prior to 2/15/15. The 18z euro is not included in that because that was so much further north than any other recent runs.
  11. ORH_wxman
    With this storm, if you don’t like a model solution, just wait 6 hours.
  12. ORH_wxman
    We’ll see what the EPS looks like this run. There was a ton of spread on the 12z eps so this type of solution is within the envelope.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Actually brings a pseudo-CCB into Maine that run. That’s how far north it was.
  14. ORH_wxman
    GEFS is able to swing that shortwave negative to our south which is what really helps juice that QPF up….prob a lot of members with a full blown CCB into eastern SNE …and not just swing negative, but allow it to gain some latitude while it does
  15. ORH_wxman
    Prob a warning event for SE areas that run. Not totally surprising as the 12z GEFS were kind of bullish.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Shit or get off the pot time though for having a AN snow season for anyone who averages over about 45”. If we can score even a couple 4-8” type events, that would go a long way to keeping us in the game. EPS is showing PNA trying to spoke again late month so maybe another window for a coastal there. GEFS more lukewarm on that but it does have a pretty cold look with slight SE ridging.
  17. ORH_wxman
    That was the snowiest EPS run for New England in a while. Definitely some chances throughout those two weeks.
  18. ORH_wxman
    EPS has a decent number of members that are warning snow for a chunk of SNE. Lot of spread of course.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Yep. You get a prolonged overrunning and then you take advantage of a bit of conveyor that gets going as the low goes south of us.
  20. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty nice euro run. Lot of chances.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Just keep deepening it and good things happen.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Man, this is something that is usually eye-opening.
  23. ORH_wxman
    It was a pretty huge hit over interior New England.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GEFS looks pretty threatening for SE areas and cape.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah NH is basically just Canada and CT is fake NYC.
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