ORH_wxman

Yeah that’s further SE than pivotal by a decent amount. Sv is awful.

Euro a slight tick warmer than 06z...matches GFS basically.

He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event.

Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look.

Was gonna say i was surpsied to see GFS might actually look a tick flatter through 18h

Messenger shuffle would happen between now and go time...usually inside 24h. The lack of the high pressure even sort-of holding on probably will sink us again....it's been a killer for like 4 winters now. Cannot buy a high to even try and hold on.

ICON warmed a good bit too...not as crazy as NAM, but a solid tick. 12z runs are definitely seeing something so far. RGEM looked a little warmer too, but a very small amount vs 06z.

Unless this ends up as a total model failure inside of 30 hours, you're pretty much a lock for 8"+

Looks like those NAM runs from like 4 or 5 cycles ago. Not the ones that brought mixing to dendrite ,but maybe those runs just after that where it was still bring it to the NH border pretty easily.

Fundamentally handling the vort differently this run....keeping it strong into N Ohio....it's gonna be a warm/zonked run.

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel.

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance.

The only time I would bring in sun angle in December is if we have like a light glazing situation with temps near freezing....that actually happened in the Dec 2008 ice storm....we were having trouble accreting during the day on 12/11 with temps of like 31F, but it went to town when the sun set. Maybe it would also make a difference if you were having like a steady light snow near 32F. So maybe in the first few hours of this storm it could have a marginal impact, but it's not doing anything once you get to moderate rates.

Def still a signal there on EPS

December sun angle will get you every time.

06z GFS had it pinned in roughly the same spot too. But this is a situation where like 10 miles could be the difference between 10" of cement and 2" of slop.

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we have temps near 0C in that layer.

Euro is prob gonna win the compromise on the track closer to the BM…we’ll see. But it def was decently too cold in thermal profiles. But it’s had that issue for a few seasons now.

Yeah I think we’ve narrowed the goalposts down to just 25 miles or so but that still leaves a tough forecast because of how marginal the thermal profiles are across such a large area of more densely populated area. Metrowest down through Hartford region is gonna be a hard forecast.

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now.

3k is pretty similar but not as crazy prolific. Still a decent area of 12”+

Gives ORH 2 feet, lol. What a model.

We’re gonna get NAM’d this run.

GFS looks just a smidge colder near here than 18z but at this point it’s noise unless it does it again another couple of cycles.