ORH_wxman

Euro skynet was def hedging on the colder side until very late in the run…def likes the 2/10-11 storm. Not very prolific but mostly snow.

Euro loves @Ginx snewx to @radarman for an interior band

I think I’m all set with the pre-1940 winters…colder but drier. Unless it’s the 1930s….lot of huge torches mixed in that decade but it did have 1933-34. I’ll take the 1960s again though.

Closest was the airmass right before the big dog storm. ORH managed a single digit high. But it wasn’t anything historic like a 1994, 2004, or even Jan 2019…nevermind those crushing quick airmasses like Feb 2016/2023. It was more akin to the January 2005 blizzard airmass. Super impressive for a storm but nothing amazing from an absolute temperature standpoint.

In 2015 we were taking obs at 1m instead of 2m

Only if ratios are great. Which they might be. But don’t want to base a forecast off great ratios 48+ hours out. The higher QPF areas near north shore are higher confidence. There will probably be a localized band or two over interior but we don’t where it will set up yet.

Yes. Everything from beyond D6 right now is a disaster on model guidance. They are flip flopping all over the place. My gut still says hedge a bit colder given the NAO block (and the tendency for guidance to be hedging colder as we get closer)…but the pacific is becoming unfavorable so it’s a battle.

N shore of MA to adjacent SE NH and even near BOS is showing up on almost all guidance right now as an enhanced spot. If that holds, my guess is def Essex county gets an advisory and maybe Rockingham county. May need to include BOS and parts of south shore/Plymouth county too.

That's prob double digits there, lol

6" perfectly stacked dendrites on the north shore turning into 2" of compacted dry cement an hour later with 50mph winds.

Yeah these soundings would be 20 to 1 easy....you don't want to forecast that unless its within 24h and all guidance agrees....but some alarm bells are going off in my head from some previous inverted trough setups that we had in the late 2000s and early 2010s that gave warning snowfall to localized spots. Anytime you get that very unstable low-level look. North shore right now looks like the best spot (and it might get down into BOS and your area too), but there's a chance of an interior band somewhere too.

At least this time you only missed the white Xmas by like 15 miles instead of 15 blocks

Someone could get a localized warning criteria snowfall out of this up on the north shore or maybe somewhere else that gets under a lucky band for 2-3 hours. Assuming some of these soundings are close to reality anyway....very unstable in the low levels with big omega and a cold sounding for DGZ. I'd think there's a chance for a big surprise somewhere.

Oh that was right near BOS at 57 hours

Some of the soundings have sfc CAPE between 50-100 joules

Pivotal has NAM soundings...just click on the map. Yeah its very unstable in the lower levels.

Lol, you're gonna stack it fast if you get this sounding

I believe 1967 is the coldest spring on record for a lot of stations in New England. Just ridiculous cold from March through May that year.

Looking at January departures at ORH, the warmest 10 day stretch was Jan 6-15. That averaged +8.9. Coldest 10 day stretch was Jan 22-31 which averaged -12.3…that stretch actually started with a +8.4 too on Jan 22, but then the next 9 blew that away. The rest of the days not listed on those two 10-day stretches were slightly BN in the aggregate so you get a total of a -3 month. December was more impressive on cold departures but January is minimum climo so getting those stretches in January feels a lot colder. December was nearly wire to wire BN cold…only the cutter on 12/18-19 and a couple other random mildish days interrupted the cold departures that month.

Model continuity on anything past Tuesday of next week has been AWFUL too...GFS coming out looks nothing like 12z at D7-8.

Midweek has not much support....its been off and on on guidance, but overall seems to be decreasing in probability as we get closer. The better signal is next weekend.

Can always adjust up

2/7 looks likely but prob not much…like C-2” type deal. Though I’d watch your area for a bit more. Wednesday seems least likely for anything. Several pieces of guidance have nothing.

1967 redux (Northern ORH county had 2 snow events that May including one on the Friday/Saturday of memorial day weekend)

Kind of a bush league warmup on EPS…keeps washing out the warmest anomalies west and northwest of us. Which is what we’d expect with a rotting NAO block. Maybe we get a cutter to get a couple days of true torch.