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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Yep. Last one I did I think was Jan 2016. I’m not sure we’ve had one since then. Usually had to be Mid-Atlantic big time threat and we haven’t had a huge one since then. I always thought we should do New England ones but not that we’ve had much to track the last few years.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Wes Junker would come on too. I think RaleighWx came on once or twice too.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s capturing the sfc at 144 and redeveloping significant precip over New England. Even into NNE
  4. ORH_wxman
    I was really hoping for BUF@NE in the AFCCG.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Euro skynet ticked north again too
  6. ORH_wxman
    18z GEFS…solid bump
  7. ORH_wxman
    We'll need good northern stream involvement with that late phase-in of extra energy to get blizzard into the equation (kind of like what CMC shows)....otherwise I'm not seeing the wind criteria. We need to get that sfc low a lot closer to tighten the pressure gradient.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Now there are zero OP models that cleanly whiff SNE. 18z GFS is still kind of a cruddy solution that would prob be about 1-3" of arctic sand (except for the coke streamers on the south shore and Cape Ann), but it's a pretty hefty bump north.
  9. ORH_wxman
    I"m not sure why they don't adjust it....they have the ability to manually augment the precip if they think under catching is occurring. I agree those are definitely incorrect precip totals.
  10. ORH_wxman
    High stakes too...tons of moisture to work with in this one combined with the frigid cold dome which acts as a force for wringing out all the moisture. We want to get this one to keep inching north....you don't get systems like these very often.
  11. ORH_wxman
    There is definitely a lot more upside than low end warning totals in SNE. You phase in a little more energy and try to get that secondary cranking a bit more, and you could make it a pretty prolific storm.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Or we sand? Cold doesn't automatically equal awesome ratios. We'll prob get good ratios as long as deeper lift gets into our area, but if we are pseudo-fringed, then it could be arctic sand.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Pretty solid bump north on EPS too.
  14. ORH_wxman
    The cold on these solutions is pretty insane. Euro has ORH in the single digits almost the entire storm.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Bottom line is the OP GFS is on an island and that is a good thing right now. Every other piece of medium range guidance has significant accumulating snow into SNE.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the euro gets N stream involved but not as deeply as some of the other solutions. It’s not quite as slow. It’s still enough for a solid SNE hit but it left some on the table. But it’s more than enough to work with at D5-6
  17. ORH_wxman
    GFS seems on its own right now.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Give the way that evolves, that would have a high ceiling. You don’t necessarily see it this run on the QPF output…it’s “merely” a 7-12/8-14 type event (toss kuchera weenie maps which go wild with frigid temps) but you could potentially juice that up more with how that whole upper air evolves.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Congrats on Coke streamers mixed in with the synoptic precip
  20. ORH_wxman
    Euro suite slowed down overnight which definitely helped getting the storm north. I think that’s definitely what we want, a bit slower evolution that still gets plenty of northern stream involved…but that delay will allow the TPV to lift northeast and ease some of the confluence over us.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Can’t really hate this h5 look at 126
  22. ORH_wxman
    Canadian looks a bit slower. It might deliver though.
  23. ORH_wxman
    GFS totally whiffs on any phasing of the northern stream. We’re cooked without that.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Pretty much all guidance has been trending north. The question is whether that trend stops or reverses or we see it keep going.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Yeah this is actually a pretty nice look
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