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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    If we can get that MN kicker s/w to keep digging west, that is going to help. You want to do anything to help the southern vort gain latitude without sacrificing too much eastward longitude. NAM is digging it further west which was good…not that the NAM is good, but that’s what you’ll want to see on other model guidance.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Prob a scraper for SE areas. Not relevant though at this time range.
  3. ORH_wxman
    We need to lock Scooter into a padded room until we are 24 hours away from a big storm…once we’re confident it’s a hit, we’ll let him out.
  4. ORH_wxman
    EPS continues to be quite bullish post-1/20. So regardless of this 1/18 system, I think we’re gonna have chances. But I do think it would go a long way to trying to still salvage normal or AN snow if we can get at least a moderate hit out of 1/18. Esp if the last 10 days of the month can deliver too. This is gonna be a higher stakes pattern though. We play with the SE ridge for about a week or slightly less before we have another bout of western ridging to close the final 5-7 days of the month out.
  5. ORH_wxman
    What is making it more perplexing to me is we’re seeing conflicting trends so I don’t see how we just punt this yet. Yeah, the 06z gfs looked awful but both AIs got better at 06z and the euro maybe slightly got better (not saying much though). It’s admittedly a tight squeeze and I don’t expect a major event like some of the more bullish solutions. But I wouldn’t write off a solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning event in spots yet.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Clown range for both of them. Want to see GFS come back NW and euro make a move at 12z. Really the only two that matter at 72-84h. The mesos will become slightly more useful as we get closer but not really that trustworthy until like < 48h
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I mean a bad trend at 12z might be enough to mostly write off any chance at a warning event but even with a poor trend at 12z, hard to punt any accumulating snow for eastern areas yet. It would have to be a severe trend I think.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Why is everyone just punting? Even the shittiesr solutions are scraping the coast. Doesn’t take much to get accumulating snow at least to eastern areas.
  9. ORH_wxman
    ORH to Kevin should be plenty cold enough for snow. It’s the QPF that is the question. If you get less than a tenth of QPF at 31-33F then it might be just coatings. But you rip a quarter inch and I can easily see 1-3”
  10. ORH_wxman
    I think you could easily pick up 1-2” provided the QPF is there on Saturday.
  11. ORH_wxman
    06z euro no real change from 00z….maybe ticked slightly better if you squint.
  12. ORH_wxman
    That 06z GFS was kind of spooky. Everything was trending great until that run. Hopefully we get a tick west here on 06z Euro. The skynet models (both GFS and Euro skynet) have kept ticking west though. Good sign there.
  13. ORH_wxman
    GEFS individual lows
  14. ORH_wxman
    Ukie was still mostly a miss. Scraper. But it was better than 12z.
  15. ORH_wxman
    That one was a slower mover but it’s possible this could have a similar longitude gradient in the snowfall.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Yeah prob warning snows for eastern half of SNE but western parts still get good advisory snows.
  17. ORH_wxman
    GGEM is a pretty big hit too for eastern zones.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I went to see a Garth Brooks concert that Saturday night and as we got into Boston, the backlash started and temps dropped like 10 degrees. Everything went from sloppy mess to frozen with 3” of powder on top. Was a really wintry scene in town that night. Of course, I was weenieing out the entire time during the concert checking the NAM, then the RGEM, etc as the 00z runs came in and that’s when they turned it into a monster HECS. The 12z runs had already gone into a moderate event.
  19. ORH_wxman
    The predecessor wave drops 1-3” Saturday PM across most of interior SNE/CNE
  20. ORH_wxman
    That was objectively a nice move. Need another one.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Man, too bad we can't lock in the entire run of 18z skynet Euro....winter of yore.
  22. ORH_wxman
    The low center ticked E but it was stronger with a larger QPF field, so the QPF looked slightly west. It's kind of what @Typhoon Tip was saying earlier about how the center can move slightly E but the impact of sensible wx can move slightly W if the storm is stronger/larger. Either way, we're talking error bars here....nothing big.
  23. ORH_wxman
    AI GFS bumped NW…OP did not.
  24. ORH_wxman
    You hope maybe we trend into a compromise of sorts and get at least something half-decent out of this. The 12z blizzard was a pipe dream given it had zero support.
  25. ORH_wxman
    Def less dynamic looking than 12z though. But should still be a good hit.
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