ORH_wxman

Yeah some of these events we had didn't show up well on guidance all that well until D7 or so. It's the type of flow that probably isn't easy on guidance with so much energy and then dealing with a stout -NAO block. Hopefully one of these can produce.

I noted that right before the storm started....the Euro was really going to get the W on the track, but it was just awful with the thermals. The whole system was pretty weird though. If you had told me before the storm started that the only information you would give me is that I would spend almost the entire storm below freezing, I would have at minimum expected snow to be overproducing in a very large swath of SNE.....but instead it was actually fairly underwhelming. Having low pretty decently SE with good ageo northeryl drain but yet we were ripping 925mb from the south relentlessly to the point of overperofming on warmth at that level....didn't have that on my bingo card. Typically I'd expect that type of track to have the warm nose way up at 750mb or something.

06z Euro was trying to get some snow into SNE early Saturday....not much, maybe a C-1"...not really buying it. Maybe a few flurries.

EPS trying to really mute the mid-month torch. No real coherent threats, but a lot of buckshot on the ensembles....I suppose 12/9-10 still has a bit of the clipper/redeveloper sig, but not super strong. It has a system right on its heels...another stronger clipper...could morph into a SWFE....or just be a glorified FROPA. Way too early to really care.

Really effing weird. Sfc low almost got elongated too to the northeast. Yet we had 925 taking forever to close off and ripping from 180-170.

This was a really weird sleet event. Not common you get sleet with a warm layer around 900mb, lol. But I agree it was probably not-fully melted flakes refreezing quickly into pellets.

Hrrr doesn’t flip us back until after 11pm now. We’re prob not gonna get much late snows.

There’s a ton of energy in the flow starting this weekend into next week…just a lot of vorticity firehosing off the pacific and if one of those amplifies, then we could see a larger system. I don’t think we’re going to be lacking for threats. They may not all materialize but I think guidance will show storms at different times next week.

Finally crept above 32F. Rain and 32.5F. Lot of crap and ice still out there.

You guys up there may grab 2 or 3 inches this evening....the CCB actually looks kind of real up there. Down here I'm hoping for a couple inches but might be too far SW.

RAP has some stuff back your way...maybe a coating to an inch if lucky. HRRR not as enthused...more like flurries. Reggie was more like the RAP...maybe C-1" there? Would be mostly between prob 9pm-2am.

Yeah the ice is kind of nasty when you walk outside, but I won't lie and say having just that glaze shining and the very small layer of snow sugar coating the ground does keep it more festive. Keeping fingers crossed for a couple inches late this evening with the departing CCB.

Icy…serves me right for forgetting to put the grill cover back on last night…that driveway/walkway glare is nasty right now

Icy…serves me right for forgetting to put the grill cover back on last night…that driveway/walkway glare is nasty right now

Very icy outside....31F right now. Epic fail on the sfc temps. Not totally uncommon to happen but a bit more surprising since we had no high to the north. But that sfc low kind of elongating to the northeast probably really turned ageo flow more northerly.

Freezing line runs from about Waltham down to Wellesley to Needham to Sherborn to Medway to Bellingham....so basically just west of 128 and then gets to 495 down near Bellingham. Still below freezing here at 30.5F.

Temp now creeping above 30F You can tell the warmth aloft is getting closer to ground as there’s way less sleet now and the accretion is mostly stopped. The previous glaze is still on bushes and other surfaces but the rain is mostly just running off it now. Short term guidance has been getting better and better for later this evening. Hoping to finish with a few hours of steady snow.

Yeah there’s def longitude component, but also the radar can’t see it beyond a certain distance.Too far away to show up in CT. But it’s there on the OKX radar. But even that radar is prob too far away to show it in northern CT…when it’s lower level warmth punching in and not up at 750-800mb, it’s harder for the radar to see it from far away

You can see the CC line getting some resistance just north of me literally almost on top of my head. Getting some very ugly mangled occasional flakes mixed in now with the IP/ZR. Temp 29.5F

Keep checking for aggregates mixing in....CC is trying to wash out near you.

A little clipper redeveloper nuke? Jeez, its been years. Xmas morning 2017? Lol. We did have a little blow-up system on 2/7/21 (super bowl sunday storm that year....best band was CT over to E and SE MA)...not quite the same look, but maybe we could count it.

Getting a good glaze going right now...temp at 29F. Some sleet mixed in. Would be nice to latently cool that little warm layer around 900-925 enough to pound some aggregates for a bit...I noticed some of the CC on radar trying to wash out on the northern side.... but not getting hopes up. Best bet here is the Kraft ending tonight....

Lotta ground showing there for 2"....

There's actually a pretty nice cross-hair sig in that little CCB ending for central/Eastern MA late this evening on some of the mesos....if things break right, might see a nice 3 hour burst or so.

We had a round of sleet/snow mix....the sleet is kind of weird because it's not like we're warmed at 800-750 or anything....prob mostly shitty growth as the deeper lift is still west. Temp 28.5F