ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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I think you’ll need to tack on 6”+ after the initial overrunning thump to get 20” amounts. That’s possible but it requires some form of a CCB even if it’s mostly lower level…all that onshore flow from 850 and below. Guidance disagrees on the extent of that type of setup early Monday.
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Prob a pretty decent call right now based on most guidance. You can almost broadbrush 10-16 across SNE. Maybe go slightly more conservative on the islands. There also might be a stripe of slightly higher amounts if there’s good OES enhancement and CF enhancement in a few spots, but I wouldn’t want to forecast explicitly over 16” for any one spot.
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Heights have been showing up a bit lower in Quebec on the 12z runs so far. The stuff out west is still amped, so it’s actually a good combo for a lot of us because it runs into an even more stout brick wall than before which will increase QPF
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RGEM looks a touch suppressed too with the heights to our north. Everything out west looks great though.
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Maybe 1 in 3? I’d prob forecast 10-15” at the moment….
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This reminds of the scene on the plane in the movie Con Air when Steve Buchemi’s character is commenting on another convict…he says, “That guy is so angry that moments of levity actually cause him pain, gives him headaches. Happiness for that man hurts.”
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Slightly more confluence too so you’re gonna be absolutely slamming some big fronto.
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What’s with the obsession with the mixing talk? In order to get mixing up into this airmass, you’re gonna charge Mother Nature a fee of about 10-15” of snow. It’s just gonna take so much forcing.
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About an inch here.
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06z op Euro looks pretty nice
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Looks like BOS is getting the ol’ 7-10 split
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Looks like the GFS will not whiff on the phase like 18z did.
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Just training over here right now.
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Now we’re rocking. This is pounding.
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That happens when you go into a very snowy pattern. It just finds ways to snow. It’s like running hot at the plate in baseball or hot hand in basketball. You had the same thing happen to you last Saturday. Like a 1-2” event turned into 4-5”.
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Yeah I like that look. Delays the overrunning some with the lower heights north of us but you still have a ton of energy diving down the backside ready to crush that baroclinic zone. Too bad it’s the clown range NAM
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Really starting to pick up. Everything coated. Might be able to squeeze out an inch looking at radar.
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The funny part about that CF showing up a bit inland is that the south shore might be like 30F but with obscenely steep lapse rates up to like 900mb. You’re getting ocean enhancement but might be enhanced by low level instability.
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You may get some CF enhancement for a time anyway.
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It's a longer duration SWFE, but basically same mechanics. Since we have all this gulf moisture and the cold dome is extreme, we can wring out a lot of precip versus the usual 0.5-0.75 we normally do. It would be our biggest region-wide storm in years regardless. There's still a chance we can trend it higher, but you'd need that secondary stuff.
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Looked a bit juicier than 12z down in SNE....but the overall idea wasn't too different. It's not cranking the secondary in the midlevels because of the issues we talked about earlier (too much ridging getting into S Quebec)...it's just a really juiced cold SWFE. But likely widespread double digits in that kind of look (10-16" type event)
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18z GEFS looking better than OP (and also the 12z GEFS) makes it even easier to toss that 18z OP GFS run. We were tossing it anyway, but now it's more of a violent toss.
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Not overly worried about OP GFS being the ugliest model....it usually is in almost every single major event we have (major = widespread double digits totals). But if other guidance starts running the N stream out ahead, then we'll have a problem.
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GFS is gonna be more tepid...missed phasing out west.
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ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.
