ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Nice Euro skynet run at 18z…can we lock in next Sunday?
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NE CT (esp at elevation) is def different than the valley and SW CT. As much as we rib Kevin sometimes, his climate is way closer to ORH than HFD/BDL or anywhere southwest of there. But once the summer starts, he will use BDL again.
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Yes. But it’s prob not a very large area that would see icing. At least not how it looks now.
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Yeah it’s pretty solid considering basically zero falls D1-5 except an inch or two on the south coast. It’s mostly D5-15.
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EPS 5 day mean temp anomaly and total run snowfall. There will be chances.
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Solid warning event next weekend on GGEM for a lot of SNE. Gonna see a lot of solutions on this.
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Canadian might be good for weekend.
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Stein on both events.
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It wasn’t even really worth a response. That’s his schtick. Say something very negative but with extreme confidence.
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Yeah we need a pretty aggressive phase to get this north given how far east this is when phasing can occur. Pretty unlikely for most of us but south coast should def still watch this.
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Even in the tropics of SE MA this is kind of ridiculous to say on Feb 14th when the pattern doesn’t even look all that mild going forward.
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Not enough this run. Tickles the south coast. Maybe an inch or two for SW CT.
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NAM looks a lot more phased through 36h
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06z runs did look a bit colder again for late week. It’s like 00z all saw something to go warmer and then ticked it back a bit at 06z. Still need to wait and see on that.
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I wonder which obscure model will have the storm on the 00z runs. This is worse than the late January storm tease. At least that one had some huge OP euro solutions inside 100 hours.
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The funny part about @ineedsnow still tracking the 2/16 storm is that his location is probably one of the least likely to see anything from it in SNE. I love the dedication though.
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Any OP solution that far out is for the glue factory. Ensembles do show some weak signal for a warm spell around that time, but ensembles this winter have been almost perpetually showing warm spells in clown range that haven't really verified....so we wait.
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Gotta go out further....it's in clown range but the OP tried to get us to 70F around 2/26 or so.
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Big boy Scooter high in Quebec for the late week system....if we can get enough dPVA to curl into that monster, we'd have a nice high-QPF SWFE.....but if you keep things too sheared, might be kind of weak. GFS was attenuating quickly...so it starts off decent and weakens....but having a little crunched isn't the worst thing a week out.
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GFS pretty snowy next week. Looks a lot like Euro right now.
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This is how the average snow weenie pictures every winter
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People have to remember that 90% of the forum cares about snow. Nobody is going to get excited for a high of 24 and a low of 5F in late February if there’s no snow with it. They’ll gladly take a high of 35-40F if it means a better shot at snow a few days later. Nobody remembers March 2018 or March 2017 for “slowly melting”, they remember them for the huge snow events and deep pack that dominated those months.
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Euro Skynet was pretty good too. A lot of snow events/threats.
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Next week looks pretty good imho. That first system is the weaker of the two and it’s prob also the warmest but it could still snow right down into most of SNE…second one looks a bit colder. Really good arctic airmass lurking north and most guidance wants to advect a slice of that in here ahead of of the Friday system.
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I think you’d be surprised how bad NNE did in the 1980s too. Esp the latter half. Lot of stein up there. Early 80s we’re great there.
