ORH_wxman

The model spread seems like it has increased overnight. Definitely an east trend but you still have guidance over central/western LI but now instead of BID being near the eastern envelope, some other eastward guidance is near UUU.

Yeah they have viewers in E CT and RI....even if SE MA is unlikely to get hit hard, those other areas definitely could. Can't really rule our areas near EWB getting it good yet either....if this tickles east then they are back in the game.

It's like a really weak version of Carol.

It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center.

slowing to crawl near BID.

Yeah this will def be east of 12z...won't come back enough to match the earlier run. Prob like RI landfall this run....

18z NAM looks east so far through 36....it's also a bit slower too, so it might try and slingshot back west late.

Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs?

I thought the CRAS model discontinued in 2017 or 2018.....they brought it back? LOL...or maybe there was another version in the works waiting to be released upon us like locusts.

I'm still very leery of the tickle east....there's a great ULL in place for sling-shotting this west, but the upstream blocking isn't nearly as prolific as Sandy was, and that makes the trough susceptible to eastward leaks....esp with upstream kicker s/w. Not an easy forecast though....glad I don't have to do it. If the ULL captures this and tightens up a bit, then it will really want to go west.

I feel comfortable saying this won't be nearly as destructive as Sandy was. It's so much smaller. That is not the same as saying it won't be destructive somewhere....it probably will, but likely a much smaller area and probably less intense. edit: I did already say earlier that the "left hook" aspect could be similar....which will need to be watched carefully for localized big storm surge somewhere.

Yep this is nothing like Sandy on a size scale (and likely strength too). The only similarity is the left turn it takes which is somewhat unusual.

Someone is going to get that much too I think. Agreed that the 12"+ jackpot can stay out of here, lol..... I still am not sold on the further west track (like W LI into W CT), but the trend is definitely west right now.

Agreed, The global models are currently solidly to the east of the mesos. Ukie is prob the furthest west of the globals right now....landfall near RI/CT border.....and basically all of the mesos are all west of the Ukie. There's really no overlap right now between the two camps. That makes me want to hedge more toward the globals given the synoptic importance of the trough/blocking features. I do think the globals can come west a little more. The mesos cannot be entirely chucked. They will handle the internal convection better and that can help steer the storm a little west by pumping up the WAR to the east a little.

Coastline is covered in super wealthy real estate these days. Amazing even compared to like 1980s/1990s.

It’s going to hook to the northwest at some point but the timing is obviously everything. Typically you tend to hedge a little eastward on northeast TCs because of the prevailing westerlies tend to nudge the troughs along, but there’s some transitory blocking to the northeast on this one so we will have to see if that holds or it weakens just a bit as we get closer. There’s also a bit of a kicker shortwave in the plains that could affect the ULL that is trying to steer this thing.

Prob good winds for E MA on that run. Going from EWB/PVD to just south of ORH. Someone just NE of that center would prob get some good winds. Epic rains prob for CT.

Euro isn’t going to handle strength on this well. Track is where it will be a lot more skilled.

06z Euro is coming west too. Though the 00z run was pretty far east so not a big surprise. Looks like 06z run is going to be near EWB/PVD.

I’d say anyone within about 100 miles of the center on the western side will have to watch out for huge rains.

Yeah if there’s a NW hook and the center goes into SE CT or something like that, then much of eastern SNE could be at risk for spin-ups as it would put us in the front right quadrant.

Labrador current. It’s always frigid water out on the east-facing outer Cape beaches.

Yep. For now anyway. West side of the center looks primed for some sick rain totals. Models frequently underestimate the totals too in that zone on tropical systems...particularly inland where the terrain can enhance it some.

Average extent loss on NSIDC over the past 10 years from this point forward is 936k....but it has been as low as 550k and as high as 1.2 million.....so that places the minimum between 4.45 million and 5.1 million sq km if we hold inside those bounds.

He moved to iceland. He said it liked it too much.