ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Very good chance. Though it’s going to wetbulb pretty quickly once rain starts.
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I haven’t looked at soundings but given the 850 temps I’d think above about 4K in NNE will see snow tonight and early tomorrow. Might get lower if heavier precip gets in there but right now the best lift is SNE.
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I wasn't that hard to get one well before that either even with zero preconditions. If you just called and put yourself on a no-show list, you would likely get one within a couple days. I got one in early March this way despite not being eligible for traditional appointment.
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He almost was certainly eligible long before that given his health issues. We don't know what all of those issues were. They could have prevented him from getting vaxxed too.
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Stein is secretly angry.
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Yeah that would match with a lot of the cooling we've seen the past 3 weeks below the sfc (though it is still warm down there). If that atmosphere keeps up into the summer, then it will probably squelch any chance of a Nino...and we could go into 2nd year Nina.
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Yeah I don't see this warm sectoring us with a high northeast of ME. NAM tries but I'll bet against that unless we see a stronger neg tilt/vorticity to force it inland.
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ECMWF seasonal (C3S) long range forecast is trying to turn this back toward Nina late in the forecast period....a bit of a difference from the April forecast. We're still in the spring barrier, but it's not as bad as April, so something to watch. I still thinkt he subsurface looks more Nino-ish but it should be noted that the subsurface has cooled quite a bit in the past 2-3 weeks.
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Honestly hard to complain after the past 2 weeks of warm weather...we've been pretty lucky for a lot of spring actually, but it sucks that this is happening on Memorial Day weekend. Even Monday looks awful too...though maybe we hit 55F instead of 47F.
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ORH might not hit 50F between tomorrow morning and Monday morning.
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Great to see all the posts on the wall (ginxy posted link last page) from members here.
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That’s a sweet view. Nice change of pace from the head-on in-your-face view of the presidentials (as amazing as that view is)...this view is more distant but still very nice.
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Is there a link to it? I want to write something. I remember a lot of his posts and think family/friends should know his passion flowed out into this forum.
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Yep, see above post....the Cape can get in some brutal snowless streaks in any given winter, but they have some big upside on the longitude storms. Throw in a little OES from time to time and they average out better than much of the south coast. You really need to get back to near HVN before you get as much snow as the Cape on the south coast....then it decreases again back toward BDR. There's kind of a south coast maxima near HVN.
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Yes and they have a bit of latitude on SE CT...so they'll sometimes grab a few inches on a SWFE before they flip where SE CT might not. But they get some OES and they also get some pretty large storms that whiff everyone else (longitude)....so it can be somewhat boom or bust on the Cape but if you average it out over the course of decades, they end up like 6-8" more per year than a place like GON.
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That title prob goes to far SE CT on the shore like where GON is. ACK actually does better than them...and the Cape a lot better.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2021 Convective/Severe Weather Potential
ORH_wxman replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
Sometimes the sfc cold pool can prolong the line or even strengthen it if there’s CAPE available to tap into. I remember that happened in the 6/10/08 line that hammered ORH. We had gusts to 70mph. Came through around 10pm when there was still a lot f leftover CAPE from a 90+ day. -
It was CCPSUSuperstorm2010...here’s the first thread I remember him in (the Dec 20-21, 2010 retro storm). You are right that he had another handle at some point that had AFweather in it. Kind if a bummer reading through it though. Some other posters who passed are in it (messenger and Nzucker). I guess that is bound to happen when we’ve been around over a decade.
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Dogshit weekend on Euro....maybe we salvage Saturday.
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Wow this sucks. RIP my friend. Met him at a GTG a few years back and he was a legit snow weenie.
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Local PWS is 77F with a dew of 45F. Hard to get much nicer than that.
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The sightings in the northeast are mostly mistaken identity, but there's a few legit sightings from wandering male mountain lions that made the trip from their range out in the plain states. I remember one was actually killed in CT a few years back....on one of the parkways. But there aren't any breeding populations in the northeast. Almost all the confirmed sightings have either been escaped captives or wandering nomadic males.
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X-files was a great show. Even the reboot a few years back was decent, but didn't quite stack up to the original. I did like how Agent Mulder was now a paranoid recluse in the woods with tape over his laptop camera.
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Despite high resolution cameras everywhere the past decade-plus, I'm sure none of them happened to catch them on video. It was just the still-frame cam with grainy resolution from 1955 that happens to be positioned correctly.
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Not holding my breath considering it's New England, but I'd bet the CAPE would look better as we get closer on that synoptic look. It would be useful if the flow at sfc was a little more southerly.
