ORH_wxman

Yeah there was like a 1-2 hour period that it ripped pretty good down there. The sun actually came out for a time which probably helped destabilize the low levels a bit and then shortly after that we got some pretty big gusts. Usually it’s hard to get much better than 40-50 knots at ground level in my own experience (which admittedly doesn’t include a “real” tropical hurricane)

There will be a risk...good low level shear. But with the wind field kind of meh, it is probably mostly like weak EF0 spin-ups. We don’t have like 100-120 knots just off the deck to tap into like we might in a stronger system. Still gotta watch though. Even weak ones will be damaging...esp with recent rains.

Irene’s strongest winds might have been down on the cape. I had my highest personal measured there with the handheld. I think Phil and I got 63 knots at West Dennis beach.

Gem was basically the same as 00z. Maybe just a hair east. BID/WST/GON zone is where I’m zoning in in LF. If I was making a 2 sigma confidence interval though I’d prob go HVN/BDR to like Buzzards bay.

This is true. Our grid sucks where I am currently.....but CT seems on another scale up though. We saw the massive contrast in both Irene and the Oct 2011 storms too...like towns right next to each other on the border...the MA side would only have scattered outages and the CT side would be like 90-100% out.

Yeah I’m leaning BID right now into WST or GON.

NHC will have to shift track east I think unless we see a big shift back on the 12z run.

You can see the 925 windfield tries to expand at He last second while its weakening.

Looks like the 06z euro tickled a little east. It’s actually pretty similar position as 00z at 12z Sunday morning just off the south fork of LI but the 06z run brings it more due north into ginxy’s hood rather than sharply NW into northwestern CT by 18z Sunday like the 00z run did.

Landfall as a weak cat 1 might be a tall task. Strong cat 1 by the time it comes ashore seems very unlikely. We’d prob need very rapid intensification today up to like cat 2 if we wanted to entertain a landfall as a high end cat 1. The storm is going to weaken between peak intensity and landfall.

Yeah the wind threat is decreasing on this unless it really gets going fast.

The model spread seems like it has increased overnight. Definitely an east trend but you still have guidance over central/western LI but now instead of BID being near the eastern envelope, some other eastward guidance is near UUU.

Yeah they have viewers in E CT and RI....even if SE MA is unlikely to get hit hard, those other areas definitely could. Can't really rule our areas near EWB getting it good yet either....if this tickles east then they are back in the game.

It's like a really weak version of Carol.

It's weird to see such a uniform wind pattern like that for a New England TC....so used to seeing the expanding windfield and the best winds well east of the center.

slowing to crawl near BID.

Yeah this will def be east of 12z...won't come back enough to match the earlier run. Prob like RI landfall this run....

18z NAM looks east so far through 36....it's also a bit slower too, so it might try and slingshot back west late.

Ginxy's fence ripped apart by flying dog logs?

I thought the CRAS model discontinued in 2017 or 2018.....they brought it back? LOL...or maybe there was another version in the works waiting to be released upon us like locusts.

I'm still very leery of the tickle east....there's a great ULL in place for sling-shotting this west, but the upstream blocking isn't nearly as prolific as Sandy was, and that makes the trough susceptible to eastward leaks....esp with upstream kicker s/w. Not an easy forecast though....glad I don't have to do it. If the ULL captures this and tightens up a bit, then it will really want to go west.

I feel comfortable saying this won't be nearly as destructive as Sandy was. It's so much smaller. That is not the same as saying it won't be destructive somewhere....it probably will, but likely a much smaller area and probably less intense. edit: I did already say earlier that the "left hook" aspect could be similar....which will need to be watched carefully for localized big storm surge somewhere.

Yep this is nothing like Sandy on a size scale (and likely strength too). The only similarity is the left turn it takes which is somewhat unusual.

Someone is going to get that much too I think. Agreed that the 12"+ jackpot can stay out of here, lol..... I still am not sold on the further west track (like W LI into W CT), but the trend is definitely west right now.

Agreed, The global models are currently solidly to the east of the mesos. Ukie is prob the furthest west of the globals right now....landfall near RI/CT border.....and basically all of the mesos are all west of the Ukie. There's really no overlap right now between the two camps. That makes me want to hedge more toward the globals given the synoptic importance of the trough/blocking features. I do think the globals can come west a little more. The mesos cannot be entirely chucked. They will handle the internal convection better and that can help steer the storm a little west by pumping up the WAR to the east a little.