ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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The key is that northern stream shortwave. On these lighter solutions it’s coming in flatter and not digging. The bigger solutions were closing that sucker off well south into NJ and S of LI. Now it’s kind of crossing overhead...it still produces a period of light snow because of some good divergence aloft just ahead of the PVA, but you’re not getting an organized conveyor system going.
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That include tomorrow night.
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Euro is fairly paltry....prob like C-2” type event for SNE.
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Euro trying to throw a bone too. Maybe a coating to an inch.
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I think for ORH the only ones I can think of are 1898 and 1971 off the top of my head. Maybe I missed one. There’s plenty of 6-10” type storms in there but 12+ is truly rare that early.
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You and powderfreak should have a GGEM party sometime. Reminisce about how much snow you would average if the GGEM was actually accurate.
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Ukie is a whiff again. Playing to its extreme bias....I think it had like 12-18” here two runs in a row and then the next two runs were both whiffs...lol.
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Yeah I thought it was solid advisory look for the metrowest region and up into Rays hood.
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Pretty good chance of that up there. You’re going to get warning snows from this event and the Sunday/Monday event may be a little too far south and weak to give those amounts there.
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Trend has been for that ccb to try and wrap in some steady snow for a few hours even into central and eastern MA. We’ll have to see how it plays out...def hedge lower because of west wind in the boundary layer but can’t rule out a C-1” Friday evening.
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That’s still within the realm of possibilities. But I get the feeling that many were latching into some of those solutions that showed a foot-plus. That is just well outside typical November climo...even ORH only has a handful of Nov snow events that high.
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GFS is a widespread 1-4” for SNE. What are people expecting in November? Lol
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Thunder
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That’s a very good look. That would go to town in another panel or two.
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Too bad we don’t have another panel on the NAM. Pretty weenie-ish at 84h.
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So does 06z nam. Late tomorrow PM and tomorrow evening id be surprised if there weren’t at least a lot of snow showers around but a steadier band up in NE MA wouldn’t surprise me. That’s a really strong and rapidly deepening ULL.
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06z euro would likely blossom more precip in SNE if we could see another couple panels. The main ULL/shortwave is still out over BUF at that point.
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That euro ptype map is wrong.
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December 2021 Obs/Disco...Dreaming of a White-Weenie Xmas
ORH_wxman replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in New England
That’s like 3 runs in a row. Not liking that trend. That would set up a pretty big torch for mid-December and perhaps into Xmas. -
06z GFS is an advisory type event for a lot of SNE. The overnight runs haven’t been going quite as hard with the northern stream. That’s why we’re seeing some weaker solutions. But that doesn’t mean those are locked in...it’s still really close to being a powderkeg there as we bring the shortwave near us. You really need to track that vort under LI to get the higher end solutions.
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Feb 5th was also a huge storm for E MA. Like 8-12” of paste.
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The legend of powderfreak really started to materialize in 2014-2015 winter when Boston got about 100” in 3 weeks. He started off posting a random ARW or GGEM run as a joke but by the time we got to the 3rd or 4th monster event he would post them more frequently and with text that sounded more forced/desperate. He would play it off as a joke but we all secretly started worrying. Then the next season happens and we’re all wondering if the next event is the one that does him in.
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925 is pretty marginal for a while between 105-111...details don’t matter at this point but that overall look was definitely one that would have some red flags for me south of the pike and even around the pike. Luckily it’s just one run and is pretty meaningless on the specifics at 4.5 days out.
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18z Euro looks pretty tasty at 90h. Prob would be a nice hit for a lot of the region trying to extrapolate if it went out further. Northern stream really digging nicely.
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There’s an eternity still for this storm. Kevin, you can’t lock in jack sh*t yet. If this amps up a little more than the 18z GFS, then you’d prob get mostly skunked and even up in pike region prob would. Hell, you already had some Ptype issues on the 18z GFS track. This is a good airmass for late November but it’s not the same as late December or mid-winter. Less wiggle room than those scenarios.
