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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    NAM hitting IVT hard over E MA
  2. ORH_wxman
    Still gotta watch the IVT potential on this but I don’t think anyone is going to see more than a couple inches even if the IVT sets up. Most will prob just see a few flakes.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I noticed the radar echoes definitely were maxing out west of where they usually do on those upslope events. The Hudson valley was all lit up and just barely east of them looked like the max. I wonder if backedgeapproaching in Manchester VT had better ratios than you.
  4. ORH_wxman
    I’d sign on the dotted line for 1-3” from this threat right now. It’s unlikely we see more than flurries or a coating at this point. It’s too bad the lead shortwave is stealing the baroclinic zone. It screws us over because that second shortwave digging behind it is quite potent and likely would have produced a nice solid advisory event if the lead one wasn’t there. This will mostly just be an upslope enhancer in NNE and not much else.
  5. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’m not sure I remember so much volatility in the D9-12 range before on the EPS when it comes to larger scale features like the EPO/WPO...like you said, one run tries to form a black hole over AK from a fish farting in the Aleutians and then next run we see a nice ridge there or at least nothing resembling a vortex.
  6. ORH_wxman
    EPS starts getting better at the very end but today’s run was definitely an ugly one. Been a lot of volatility on these runs.
  7. ORH_wxman
    Interesting that the OP euro has been trying to cut that 12/5 system but EPS keep insisting on basically nothing. Everything crunched south.
  8. ORH_wxman
    RGEM hits western CT really good with IVT. Like that’s 3-6” for a lot of peeps there.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Yes flurries count as a trace. Measurable would be 0.1” or more.
  10. ORH_wxman
    12z NAM trying to throw back a bit more moisture.
  11. ORH_wxman
    A bit over 1.5” on winter hill last night. Pretty good elevation gradient. Back in Holliston I’d call it about a half inch at most. But still nice to see most surfaces except pavement all whitened up.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Almost time to punt on anything over an inch...but there is some legit IVT chance with this one that could produce a localized heavier area.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Getting stickage. Took this about 10 min ago. Even more accumulation now.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Need another panel on the 3k but even 60 hours is wild
  15. ORH_wxman
    Happy hour NAM doesn’t disappoint.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Best chance is this evening. Might see some precip blossom almost overhead. If it doesn’t happen by 8 or 9pm then it’s toast.
  17. ORH_wxman
    EPS is definitely showing the folded over WPO ridge now into the EPO domain...look N of AK here
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yeah the comma head precip tries to rejuvenate late this PM and evening. So that’s when the best chance for any accumulation would be. If this ULL was like 100 miles south I’d be a lot more bullish but as is, it’s kind of too little too late but maybe enough for a quick burst of steadier snow.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Here’s a good look at what I’m talking about
  20. ORH_wxman
    It’s a really active pattern for early December. One of these might cut but I think there will prob be a winter threat in here too. OP run is still folding over the WPO ridge into an EPO block north of AK out in the extended. That is a really good look to keep the frigid air in Canada and into the northern tier of CONUS. Lets hope the EPS shows that happening more. Even last night sort of hinted at it. But with the OP run being pretty insistent maybe it will actually lead the way.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I’ll consider anything > 1” a win this early. There’s going to be more chances too...the pattern looks pretty active over the next 10-12 days. They all won’t be snow chances but probably at least one of them will be.
  22. ORH_wxman
    About an inch or two for eastern areas of SNE with another enhanced area up in NW MA and S VT with 2-3” on the euro.
  23. ORH_wxman
    I’ll be happy with C-1”. These don’t usually produce well on W wind. Your area may do a bit better...and esp hubbdave’s region on the other side of the ORH hills spine. They could grab a couple inches and it wouldnt shock me.
  24. ORH_wxman
    GGEM digs this pretty far though. That’s still worth watching. Kind of surprised it didn’t spit out more
  25. ORH_wxman
    GFS hasn’t been playing ball with this system for a couple days now. It’s been the furthest north with that shortwave and this run is no different.
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