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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I’m not biting yet. Though I have one eye on it now. Hard to get such a big move close in but it happened in the 2/5/16 event.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Jerry confirmed what I was going to respond with…yeah, it’s a 5 day mean vs a single point in time map. That last map was for hour 360 at the end of the run.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Yeah Scott is right…that is the best EPS look we’ve had all winter and probably since 2018 if you love snow and deep cold going with it. I’m still being a little cautious given the struggles guidance has had…but it’s a good sign that the start of that pattern is now inside of D10.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Fwiw, this is the very end of the EPS run. You can see the western ridge retrograding a bit but we also are forming a N ATL ridge with the PV on our side of the pole. It’s a very cold look.
  5. ORH_wxman
    EPS still looks very cold going into mid-month.
  6. ORH_wxman
    Yeah that’s great looking. Sucks that it’s 6 days out still. I’d be getting pretty pumped if we were 84-96 hours instead Anyways, here’s the individual plot members
  7. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s further north anyways than other guidance. I’d toss it.
  8. ORH_wxman
    All the QPF on the northern 25 miles of Monday's system is prob going to be Virga.
  9. ORH_wxman
    That type of phased PNA/EPO ridge in the second image is a very cold pattern historically. So it wouldn’t surprise me to see a very strong arctic outbreak at some point if that verifies.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Here was last nights EPS…first map is 5 day mean between D5-D10 and the next one is days 11-15
  11. ORH_wxman
    06z eps has a pretty big spread…not a tight cluster
  12. ORH_wxman
    We traded with Seattle for 2-3 weeks. At least the EPS continues to improve. Looks even better than 12z did.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I'd wait until we're inside 10 days. The good news though is that the western ridge starts building pretty quickly by D9
  14. ORH_wxman
    Tip will like the lower heights in the SE later in the period....no Hadley cell geopotential medium compression for you....
  15. ORH_wxman
    Here's 5-day mean D9-13
  16. ORH_wxman
    Well if you think about we kind of traded our climate with them for the past 2-3 weeks.
  17. ORH_wxman
    EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. @CoastalWxwould definitely like that western ridge anomaly max sitting over Idaho/Montana. PV actually gets shoved into SE Canada. Probably a legit arctic outbreak if that look verified.
  18. ORH_wxman
    EPS takes the system over SE MA...pretty decent spread in solutions so way too early to talk about whether the system is "lost" yet.
  19. ORH_wxman
    GGEM actually scrapes the Cape now....lol
  20. ORH_wxman
    It can be strong...it just depends where the shortwave amplifies. On the Euro, it doesn't amplify until further east...there's a bit more confluence.
  21. ORH_wxman
    Massena NY FTW.
  22. ORH_wxman
    Yeah EPS is still totally fine but GEFS would be better. EPS actually starts retrograding the western ridge a bit at the end to a nice spot.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Man the GEFS and EPS are pretty different in the N PAC in the 11-15. GEFS has a nuclear EPO ridge…almost 2015-Esque. EPS are really lowering heights in AK though there is still some cross polar flow to the N of AK
  24. ORH_wxman
    Euro still liking 1/7 for something trackable.
  25. ORH_wxman
    This is really surprising.
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