Jump to content

ORH_wxman

Moderator Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    93,095

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    I expect some northward ticks (I've been saying it for days actually)....but there's a difference in mere northward ticks and the 12z NAM. The question is does the NAM start coming back to other guidance...which I think it probably does. But maybe it scores a synoptic coup too.
  2. ORH_wxman
    NAM is still synoptically very different from other guidance...it is tracking that vortmax NORTH of Lake Ontario....nevermind over it. If it is wrong with that, then it's going to bust too warm. It's not "Sniffing out a warm layer" like we sometimes see in these events when they all agree on the synoptics. The NAM is literally about 75-100 miles north of other guidance on the vort track and that makes a huge difference.
  3. ORH_wxman
    Warm layer there is kind of weak sauce...and lower than the typical 750-800 zone you'd normally see it. Something to watch if we're not going to see that really distinct warm layer in the 750 zone.
  4. ORH_wxman
    It would have been almost impossible for it not to be...it was so cold at 06z.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It was frigid at 06z. I’d be surprised if 12z came in as cold but it’s probably a red flag not to believe the NAM if it does.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It's like 2-4" down there now.
  7. ORH_wxman
    You can get like 5 to 1 sleet ratios if it’s really cold with a ton of pixie dust mixed in but that type of ratio usually doesn’t happen over a long period of sleet. Best to assume 2 to 1 or maybe 3 to 1 in a colder profile.
  8. ORH_wxman
    3-4” of sleet from half of round 1 QPF? That would be like 6 or 7 to 1 ratios just on sleet.
  9. ORH_wxman
    Wow you bailed on the NAM quickly.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it’s going to be hard not to get 4” even if it’s like 70-80% sleet for you. Getting over an inch of QPF is a good slug….2” of snow plus like 0.80” worth of sleet at 2 to 1 (and that may be conservative…could be 3 to 1 sleet ratios in this given the very cold layers below 800mb) gets you there already.
  11. ORH_wxman
    I don’t believe the NAM. The only way I believe it is if other guidance agrees with it which by definition means I’m not taking it seriously by itself. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a bit south/colder at 12z to come closer to other guidance.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Model guidance has been really consistent on over 1” of QPF for SNE in this. There’s going to be some meat in the pack after this one.
  13. ORH_wxman
    Went back to a really far north vort track at 06z after starting to come in line with other guidance at 00z.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Ukie is frigid. Tries to keep it all snow for a chunk of CT too. 00z guidance definitely playing the confluence harder this cycle.
  15. ORH_wxman
    I feel like these are almost always dense baking powder. 12/16/07 was maybe an exception for 2 hours in the middle of it which helped with the positive bust (not totally because of ratios but busting through the DGZ helped cool the column better too) but even that one was sandwiched by dry cement on each side of it.
  16. ORH_wxman
    That was a pretty cold rgem run considering 18z was pretty torchy.
  17. ORH_wxman
    Yeah euro ticked north but very small tick. Still really cold. I don’t expect it to verify.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Yep I expect sleet right up to Ray even…but I think there will be a big thump before that. Bent back WFs usually produce well.
  19. ORH_wxman
    I remember he was grouchy when ORH-BOS was getting crushed in that event but he didn’t absolutely lose it until Mattmfm posted from Providence that he was getting heavy snow while Tolland was getting Scalped. He went nuclear when that happened. Then Ekster posts from SE MA that it’s ripping at 2” per hour and I think he logged off for a couple hours. That might have been the first event he broke some stuff in the basement.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Which location do you think has a higher chance for warning snowfall (more than 6”)? Boston or Tolland?
  21. ORH_wxman
    I’ve been expecting sleet here for days. Haven’t you read any of my posts on this?
  22. ORH_wxman
    This has been his MO in SWFEs since 2007-2008. He cannot stand it when BOS or Scooter are ripping heavy snow while he’s pelting so he tries to lump everyone in together by saying sleet gets to S NH while ignoring that it may snow heavily for 3 or 4 extra hours in BOS which would make their snowfall forecast different than Tolland.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Absolutely classic Kevin in a SWFE. Only thing left is to try and lump Ray in with Tolland. I suspect you’ll do that in the next 24-36 hours.
  24. ORH_wxman
    Yeah southern CT could def get some ZR. There’s almost zero chance the secondary tracks north of there so it’s going to stay freezing/frozen.
  25. ORH_wxman
    He’s trying to get big icing into his hood but he’s going to get absolutely pelted. Doubt there’s much ZR there.
×
×
  • Create New...