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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    This is the EPS 5 day mean ending 12/24 for both H5 and H85
  2. ORH_wxman
    Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS show some potential there in that Dec 19-24 range.
  3. ORH_wxman
    12/22-23/69 had a nasty ice storm over central MA. Prob the one. Dec 1973 is a good mention by the others but that was a full week earlier on the 16th.
  4. ORH_wxman
    Yeah gotta go back to 2015 really....though you could maybe make a case for 2018 (first 10 days were brutal cold with the 1/4/18 bomb....however the rest of the month was a torch). Jan 2019 was cold, but not all that snowy.
  5. ORH_wxman
    It's clown range but it's a very good look....esp for interior. That high is kind of moving east to coastline might have issues by the time the storm comes up the coast, but overall it's at least something that is plausible once we're done with next week's torch.
  6. ORH_wxman
    The 850 anomalies show this well...it's not that warm here.
  7. ORH_wxman
    It was a troll post meant to elicit a response.
  8. ORH_wxman
    I always love reading about the old ski resorts back in the day that relied 100% on natural snow. So many of them were open for like 4-6 weeks all winter. Or even worse in some awful years. A lot of the old mom and pop hills might open for 3-4 weeks in January/February and that would be it. They typically made most of their money during February vacation week so that is the week they hoped to be open.
  9. ORH_wxman
    12z runs so far today definitely have some chances starting around 12/18-19. They would be SWFE type events but it’s obviously a change from the “no chance” regime of the next week.
  10. ORH_wxman
    Eh, I think the December composite is probably toast unless we get a huge swing in the final 10 days....too much western troughing and a lot of eastern ridging.
  11. ORH_wxman
    Yeah if we're gonna have a really mild day, lets see 70F....55-60 is boring....Thursday could make a run if we warm sector early enough in the day.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Yes especially early month....but the 2nd half of the month is pretty decent for snow climo...esp interior. So punting December would be pretty bad....esp in a Nina. I honestly can't remember the last good La Nina where we punted December. Might have to go all the way back to 1971-72. Hopefully this one turns it around in the final 10 days which is very possible. It's an active flow, so the snow events can come in a bunches once some of the timing breaks your way (ala Dec 2007 or 2008)
  13. ORH_wxman
    I get the frustration....it's pretty bad to have nothing on the horizon on 12/10.....and we might end up punting all of December until the pattern gets less hostile. I am not quite ready to punt the final 10 days of the month yet though....that's a very strong EPO ridge forecast and if the western troughing is just a little less than shown, we'd have chances I think. But it's definitely a headwind right now. That western trough is very deep.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah it was right after that cold tuck event. We had like 3-5” of snow followed by the sleet/ice combo and the ice stayed on the trees for days.
  15. ORH_wxman
    2019 was a good one. ORH has a high of 1F. Coldest since the Jan 1994 outbreak which also produced a high of 1F (the Jan 2004 outbreak had a high of 2F).
  16. ORH_wxman
  17. ORH_wxman
    Anyone who lived through the late 1980s/early 1990s as a kid should be a grizzled veteran sledding on 2” of snow.
  18. ORH_wxman
    I’d be pretty surprised if we cannot beat that in the final 10-12 days of the month considering that monster EPO dump of cold into Canada. Even if the pattern is somewhat hostile for snow, that type of arctic cold is going to be hard to avoid when frontal passages occur behind a cutter....even if it’s transient cold.
  19. ORH_wxman
    The SE ridge position in the composite is good for us...the one on the ensembles is bad for us...it's too far north. We could get away with another couple hundred miles even on the composite, but we can't have the max anomalies almost overhead. So if we can trend that western ridge a little more tame and/or find some other mechanism to push the SE ridge a little south (whether its the NAO or a more easterly EPO block), then we'd be in business.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Dec MJO 7 composite looks a lot tamer than progs....not saying the prog is wrong, but digging the trough really deep into CA doesn't seem to be on here
  21. ORH_wxman
    Or just less digging of the western trough....or a bit more of a stout -NAO....there's a few ways to get it to work.
  22. ORH_wxman
    ORH had like 10" in that event....you are prob thinking of 12/29/76 a few years earlier which gave 128-495 belt like 12-18" and ORH got 4".
  23. ORH_wxman
    Thursday looks like the best bet. I don't think any of Monday-Wednesday will be that warm....above average, but prob not 50s/60s...maybe 50s are possible in the usual spots Monday. It will depend how well we mix on Monday. Friday could be a downslope dandy too....something to watch for temp enthusiasts.
  24. ORH_wxman
    It's there Tuesday/Wednesday....this run does warm sector us Thursday though which would get us well into the 60s if we can achieve warm sector early in the day.
  25. ORH_wxman
    That sneaky high is prob going to "Ruin" the torch for most of it I think....we might be able to get Thursday or Friday pre-FROPA to get a really good day in there, but I'm starting to envision this backdoor high keeping it colder. It will still be mild compared to averages, but I was previously thinking we could make a run at all time December records and now I'm skeptical we even sniff those types of highs.
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