ORH_wxman

Pre-1950 is kind of a wasteland for good snowstorm impacts…also doesn’t help that the 2-3 decades leading up to it were pretty horrible for snow. How does Dec 19, 1945 rank in CT? I know it was a big storm for HFD but wasn’t sure about statewide impact. Usually a big dog in HFD is good for most of the state though.

Need hood western ridging for clippers and we haven’t had much of that in the past few winters. The last winter that seemed to have a decent number was ‘18-19. We had several in a row in Feb and I think Jan had one too.

Feb ‘83 was pretty huge in CT too.

Your area has be near the top for 18+ drought. Maybe just west of you? Has Danbury had an 18+ event since Jan 2011? Not sure if they got 18” in the Mar 7-8, 2018 storm.

Yeah Feb 2013 was easily the biggest impact region-wide this century…maybe since 1978 but you could make a case for Mar ‘93 though. Dec ‘03 was also really wide impact for snow but it didn’t have nearly the wind that Feb ‘13 or Mar ‘93 had.

The 1955 floods changed the way they had flood controls and drainage in ORH. There was something like 10 feet of water in downtown ORH during that. We will never see it again due to the changes they made. So yeah…tragic event did produce safety measures that undoubtedly has saved a lot of lives.

I've never understood the "morality' arguments in rooting or not rooting for certain types of weather. I think looking at it through a lens of only that storm can be too myopic. I can very easily root for a blizzard but hope people are not hurt or injured during it. I even proactively try and warn as many people as possible if it looks like dangerous weather is coming. In the end, yes, extreme weather does injure/kill people....but at the same time, we learn from extreme weather events both in terms of forecasting ability and preparation which actually saves lives in the future. So on that front, extreme weather events can be "good"....we're learning and saving lives in the future when the next blizzard or ice storm or hurricane hits. If we didn't learn from previous weather disasters, it's hard to estimate how many more people would have died in events like Katrina in 2005 or the blizzard in February 2013, or even the Buffalo blizzard this year....all those events injured and killed people to varying levels of magnitude, but they would have been way worse without the experience and learning from previous events.

Yeah if you look at 925-850, you can see that if the meat of the CCB gets in here, I think you'd be parachuting except maybe on the Cape and immediate south coast? Even there might get something if the lift was excellent.

Yep....if every single break goes in the "Bad" direction, we could have a 5-10 inch winter over interior SNE....likewise, if we hadn't gotten screwed in March 2015 or that marginal rainstorm on a nor' easter in Dec '14 or even on a couple events during the good pattern like 1/31/15, we could have had 170 inches, lol. But there's a reason we don't get 170 inches ever or 7 inches. Having every coinflip go against you the entire winter is really hard. You are bound to have even a couple coinflips go your way even when you're unlucky when there are a dozen of them.

Euro completely cancelled the spring warmup potential in that Feb 17th range....instead it has overrunning threat with high pressure pressing down into our area.

Euro is kind of like GGEM....really close but the good stuff doesn't get in here.

I'm expecting nothing until the models are in good agreement on something inside of 96 hours...and that agreement might take until <48 hours in a system like this. It does have the "feel" of a close miss....however, I'll add the caveat that the GFS being the furthest SE feels pretty normal for a pure east coast cyclogenesis event. I'd prob not scoff at the Euro as much in a setup like this as some other type of system or larger scale pattern.

Yeah I agree. Conversely, a record that may have happened if temperature sensor was accurate might not be recorded with a flawed temperature sensor. (i.e., if BOS was still running 2-3F warm, they wouldn't have recorded their coldest temp since 1957 even though it actually was the coldest since 1957 in reality)

Ukie is a decent hit for SNE...esp interior zones central/eastern areas. It has that nice advection of colder air at 925/850 from the northeast that the GGME had, but unlike the GGEM, it got the heavier precip into SNE.

GGEM was a close call...it dragged down some colder air too, but we just couldn't quite get the steady precip in here. If that was like 50 miles NW, you prob get a nice slug of heavy wet snow

Yeah I'm not worried about bad data for things like temp trends on the entire country or even regions....but you start getting incorrect data on places like BOS and ORH, that is not good. You could corrupt state-level data with stations like that in small states like MA. Data is really only useful if it's accurate.

Yep...all the Tblizz's of the world will be dutifully clicking on the 12z runs regardless of what they say about it having no chance. They like preaching to the choir though....as if 90+% of the posters here don't already know it's a long shot.

I think 06z EPS looked even a little better. Almost half get advisory snows into SNE with many getting more than that.

Yeah...I stated this yesterday....anytime you have a system completely cutoff from the polar jet, you are going to have temp issues. I don't care what month it is. These have happened in January too....they are just more common in spring than winter. I did say the one redeeming factor on this one is there is a bit of a high that builds in to our north which could aid in feeding in some lower DP air, which can help in a marginal airmass....you turn what might have been a 0-1C rain storm with mangled noodles into a -0.5C blue cottonball system. I'm still pretty skeptical on this one though....doesn't seem we get quite enough dynamics on most of these runs....even a tiniest amount of PJ injection would go a long way...like you said, maybe we can find that tiny sliver in the next couple days as more of this stuff is sampled.

Sheet of ice out there this morning. Wasn’t expecting that.

Absolutely ripping sleet here

Cutoff totally separated from the polar jet. Always tough to get enough cold in those. High is in a decent spot though so there’s a chance it could trend just a smidge colder. We’ve seen that a decent amount on progs…when you have a good high feeding lower DP air down into the system, even a rotted airmass can cool enough.

20 year anniversary today of a different event. Big positive bust. Can’t believe it was 20 years ago.

Fwiw, here is the BOS MADIS graph back to mid 2018 when the drift warmer started…you can see it persisted for well over a year before the correction…and then the initial cold bias after replacement. It looks like the BOS error got almost to 3F before they replaced it.

Yeah good illustration of the differences. Look at the ridge axis on EPS…it’s in the gulf of Alaska versus the Aleutians on GEFS. About a 600-800 mile difference and it matters. EPS has a hint of an Aleutian low forming way on the left side of that image whereas none in site on GEFS.