ORH_wxman

I mean, look at the 12/23/97 shortwave…it really wasn’t that impressive. But it had a nice neg tilt and held together just enough to pull that moisture in. We’re still not sure what caused the 6-8” per hour rates in that. Really bizarre.

Just keep ticking that shortwave a little stronger and I think it would pay dividends.

NAM def better looking. Not totally surprising though as it was the most paltry at 00z and 06z. So it wa a probably going to trend toward others.

Shortwave looks a little more vigorous on the NAM through 48. The block though also looks like it is holding a bit tougher too so not sure if we’ll see much trend here.

I think their record low is 8.2” for a season so they are in epic territory. This system is starting to look pretty decent for them though.

Sequoia gets pretty high though. There’s also lower parts of the park but like several of the main parts of the park (like general Sherman tree) are around 7k. There was this little town one time I passed through called Coalfax just east of Sacramento in the Sierra foothills. I think the elevation was around 2,000 feet. That’s the type of town that is probably getting crushed in this.

There’s competing forces going on. The SE ridges always make me leery of northward shifts. However, with the block in place opposing the SE ridge, we run a risk of a weaker shortwave getting sheared/shredded in the meat grinder between those two. So I’m kind of expecting a shift north, but worried that it may come with a weaker system smeared out into like a 3-6” type event. That’s why I’m rooting for the stronger shortwave ejection on these next few cycles. If we can get it a touch stronger, it’s going to produce some really nice fronto bands with that geopotential gradient in place.

There’s still some upside to this one too. Get that weenie E-W band going and there could be some nice surprises. But we don’t want this shortwave coming in any weaker that’s for sure. Would feel a lot better about ticking this a little more potent at 12z.

Euro looked pretty good for CT. Maybe even up to the pike with a bit of ML banding…but I’m def gonna want to see a stronger shortwave ejecting on the 12z runs today.

Really sneaky cold shot..esp up there in NNE.

Just catching up on overnight…Euro was pretty meh and that’s a concern. GFS still looks pretty solid, 06z NAM was still garbage. Looks like RGEM bumped north and Icon was pretty much status quo.

I don’t hate this being a touch south right now with the stout SE ridge. I’m a little worried about a weaker shortwave, but these often come in more potent as we get closer.

The shortwave ejected a bit weaker this run which I think is the main culprit. I didn’t see a huge difference in the block this run.

GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight.

I didn’t really see much change at all..maybe the 1” area shrunk just a smidge

You had a good amount of ice too. Usually that would cause a decent number of outages. The wind factor probably helped with the damage further east.

More snow tomorrow than 2/28?

I was skeptical of that much ice where he was but things worked out almost perfectly…he managed to stay around 30-31 prior to the cold tuck the next day and the precip wasn’t very heavy during the whole thing which helps increase accretion efficiency. When you are getting heavier precip, a lot of it runs off and doesn’t freeze, but lighter precip freezes much easier. In addition, we had that excellent ageostrophic drain going on…even if he wasn’t getting into the arctic cold tuck yet, there was enough supply of lower dewpoints feeding into his area to offset latent warming (caused by the water freezing on contact). Finally, to maximize damage, there was strong winds with the frontal passage with the ice still loaded on trees and power lines. Nasty combo.

I think about a third of an inch of radial ice which is getting into the damage zone pretty good. You start seeing some moderately widespread damage once you pass about a quarter inch…but it starts to ramp up quick after that. I’ve always used 3/8ths as the “almost guaranteed to lose power” threshold and he was getting close to that. Once you get to a half inch radial, it’s pretty much disastrous damage and no power…anything up near 3/4ths or higher is catastrophic.

Yea he did. For several hours.

18z eps actually had a handful of members now hanging back again when 12z virtually had none. So that’s a good sign too that some of these are capturing a bit aloft. Even if you don’t fully capture it back, even prolonging the good stuff 3-4 hours makes a good bit of difference.

Not at that point there isn’t. But I do like seeing that CCB type sig on the precip shield…even just a little bit more beefed, that would be a fantastic solution for almost all of SNE.

Actually that’s a bit better than I thought at 90. Might be another 2-4 in that depiction.

Yeah there would be a bit more after that panel. Prob not a lot but maybe another inch or two.