ORH_wxman

Euro looked pretty good for CT. Maybe even up to the pike with a bit of ML banding…but I’m def gonna want to see a stronger shortwave ejecting on the 12z runs today.

Really sneaky cold shot..esp up there in NNE.

Just catching up on overnight…Euro was pretty meh and that’s a concern. GFS still looks pretty solid, 06z NAM was still garbage. Looks like RGEM bumped north and Icon was pretty much status quo.

I don’t hate this being a touch south right now with the stout SE ridge. I’m a little worried about a weaker shortwave, but these often come in more potent as we get closer.

The shortwave ejected a bit weaker this run which I think is the main culprit. I didn’t see a huge difference in the block this run.

GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight.

I didn’t really see much change at all..maybe the 1” area shrunk just a smidge

You had a good amount of ice too. Usually that would cause a decent number of outages. The wind factor probably helped with the damage further east.

More snow tomorrow than 2/28?

I was skeptical of that much ice where he was but things worked out almost perfectly…he managed to stay around 30-31 prior to the cold tuck the next day and the precip wasn’t very heavy during the whole thing which helps increase accretion efficiency. When you are getting heavier precip, a lot of it runs off and doesn’t freeze, but lighter precip freezes much easier. In addition, we had that excellent ageostrophic drain going on…even if he wasn’t getting into the arctic cold tuck yet, there was enough supply of lower dewpoints feeding into his area to offset latent warming (caused by the water freezing on contact). Finally, to maximize damage, there was strong winds with the frontal passage with the ice still loaded on trees and power lines. Nasty combo.

I think about a third of an inch of radial ice which is getting into the damage zone pretty good. You start seeing some moderately widespread damage once you pass about a quarter inch…but it starts to ramp up quick after that. I’ve always used 3/8ths as the “almost guaranteed to lose power” threshold and he was getting close to that. Once you get to a half inch radial, it’s pretty much disastrous damage and no power…anything up near 3/4ths or higher is catastrophic.

Yea he did. For several hours.

18z eps actually had a handful of members now hanging back again when 12z virtually had none. So that’s a good sign too that some of these are capturing a bit aloft. Even if you don’t fully capture it back, even prolonging the good stuff 3-4 hours makes a good bit of difference.

Not at that point there isn’t. But I do like seeing that CCB type sig on the precip shield…even just a little bit more beefed, that would be a fantastic solution for almost all of SNE.

Actually that’s a bit better than I thought at 90. Might be another 2-4 in that depiction.

Yeah there would be a bit more after that panel. Prob not a lot but maybe another inch or two.

18z Euro bumped back north some. Really good hit for CT

If we lost the high, the storm would just cut. Not happening since there’s a block in place. But some small erosion of the high might matter for like coastal areas in SE MA

Icon was a bit more amped.

Yeah that was really amped. But NAM at 84…lol.

I still think 15” is possible. I wouldn’t forecast it but it’s foolish to automatically rule it out. All it takes a strong WCB thump of 8-10” and then limp to another 5-6” with a pseudo-CCB/IVT over 12 hours. Again, I think that’s becoming less likely, but it isn’t outside the envelope of realistic solutions.

Yeah the final numbers will make your call look even better.

Yeah the 12-18” runs were on several cycles and models. Only that one crazy run with like 30 inches was on the euro about 6 days out.

They running the 18z NAM off the Trash 80 today?