ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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Think it will probably be *mostly" fluffy over the interior outside of 495 (temps look like 28-30F with a fairly cold 900-950 layer)....it may be pasty though inside of there and esp once within 10 mile of the coast.
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Most of them seem fine except the Ukie had some sort of error that basically took out any snow that fell between 42-48h (aka, the thump).
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It was actually more paltry with the CCB for a lot of us. That's an idiosyncratic feature that seems to show up better on certain runs than others (except on GFS which just crushes every run, lol)...which is why I'm not counting on it...I'll treat it as gravy if it can happen. But that initial thump I think is where we'll want to focus in the near-term. If the CCB starts looking better and better, then we can entertain something higher end.
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Put that on 24h snow at the 60 hour mark to isolate just this storm alone...but those kuchera maps giving warning snows for much of MA are a good indicator that the thump is looking much better. It's less marginal.
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Biggest improvement this run was the thump. It's starting to actually look decent. The CCB idea is fun, but I'm not counting on much from that....Im assuming it will mostly hit like SE NH and then slide offshore....but the thump can give us close to warning snows alone.
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The nice thing now, is even if we get a 50/50 compromise from here on out between Euro/GFS, that's gonna be a huge hit for like BOS to ORH and maybe even down to far N CT/N RI.
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He may have been on one of those benders until 5am…not sure he sobered up today.
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Clown map on pivotal had something weird happen between 42-48....it has nobody getting over an inch or snow (including CNE/NNE)....so just go old school and analyze the QPF/midlevels.
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Yeah but the Euro typically doesn't make moves that are more than 5 mile farts. Ukie looked pretty good. Has a really nice thump front end. (just don't look at clown maps on pivotal....snow algorithm went all wonky between 42-48h during the big thump)
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Sure...anytime you get big lift along with rapid saturation in a warmer unsaturated layer, it's going to cool. Question is how much can that offset the ongoing WAA. I like to see big omega (> 25 microbars)....typically at least kissing the DGZ.
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539" at 8k Alpine Meadows in Tahoe. 92" in the last 3 days there.
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I'm still worried about a thin warm nose around 700-750mb on the front end thump. I'd feel a little better if that layer cooled a little more on guidance. It's quite high in the column, but I've seen it many times turn a 6-8" snow into 3" with tons of pellets.
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GGEM came south a bit too from 00z. Really crushes north of pike into S half of NH/VT.
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Yes. Still not buying the GFS fully, but it's gaining support little by little. I'm in a spot that doesn't really have a lot of wiggle room, so not expecting a big storm here right now...prob a lot of kitchen sink crap that might accumulate to several inches, but if we are going to entertain an actual thump on the front end like even the RGEM shows, then it changes everything.
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Congrats on 12-18
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Locking it in....turn off the computer now
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Reggie looked pretty nice at 12z. Good thump...those are the kind of rates you want.
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Really need to see that model give NYC a MECS before being confident up here....the cold bias on that thing is LOL
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Yeah you will need real rates on the thump part. Putting 0.05 in the bucket isn't gonna get it done on that. But if we're able to slam in 30-40 microbars and be crushing 0.20" in the bucket every hour, then the sfc temps will be mostly irrelevant...everyone will latently cool to like like 32.
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It's the northern outlier right now and it was wrong on 2/23 when it was the northern outlier. While I may lean toward the NAM, taking it verbatim probably isn't a wise move when it's the further north.
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CCB looks like it's ticking SW at least
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Can we lock in the 12z HRRR?
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Yeah this has happened on most guidance which is what helps the secondary ML center form…it’s why even the most amped solutions previously are now showing the CCB forming…now where that sets up is the difference between a nuisance event and a legit solid warning snowfall. Im pretty skeptical near the pike at the moment, but I’d feel pretty good up by NH border.
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I was looking at H5 when I was making the comparison. One reason I was scratching my head initially because euro was driving the ULL like into Chicago a couple days ago, lol. Im leaning euro/NAM from this point forward though. But if I’m wrong by only a little, then that’s a big sensible wx difference for MA.
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The starting points matter. If your starting on Feb 28th 12z (so like 90-96 hours out), that’s when the euro was driving the ULL almost into Chicago. It’s come well southeast since then. But if we start at 12z yesterday, then the compromise of a lot more 50/50…maybe even slightly in favor of euro.
