ORH_wxman

GFS had like 3 snow events on that run and Wednesday was a whiff too…lol. Weenie pattern. Ensembles do sort of agree on a chance for an event or two after the mild period 11/3-11/5 or so…we get the initial cold shot, then warm back up, but then go into another colder pattern for like a week into mid-month….then it looks like we warm back up after that as typical Nino climo kicks in for second half of November…but we’ll see.

Yes. Though prob more Wednesday.

Nice to see the trailing shortwave sharpen up a little. If it can trend that way a little more, then we’re looking at a more dynamic system which would increase the chances of better snows.

Did we ever find out what type of training he had in military? If he had stealth and survival training then he could live for a long time in the woods…though I suspect he’d have a hard time surviving the winter in back country Maine. Gets so damned cold there. But he could also be in the Everglades by now too.

Yeah prob take about 40% of that for realistic numbers if we’re using the rest of the model output verbatim. If we can get solid rates, then maybe you’d get closer to 10 to 1…but that’s tough this time of year. You need like -2 or colder at 925 imho.

I'm not an expert by any means on RONI....but from the stuff I've read it seems to have some utility in adjusting how an ENSO event may behave instead of just going by the raw numbers.

Yeah I think there's some conflating of what is going on....you might have a small group of wishcasters on twitter or wherever who try and say this will be a weak/mod modoki-style event.....and I don't really see anyone in here advocating that. I do see some in here advocating for more of a *strong* (but not super) Nino behavior that is maybe more like a blend of years like '57/'65/'09 or something like that....to which I can say that isn't without merit based on what we've seen so far. Doesn't mean we go full cold/snow in the east, but it would represent an important difference compared to a typical Super Nino. Of course the MEI is going to rise because it's barely even in *weak* Nino territory at 0.6....so saying the MEI is going to rise is kind of like announcing it's going to get dark tonight. The question though is *how much* the MEI will rise. I'd be fairly skeptical of it rising into any of the territories seen during previous Super Ninos based on how far behind it is right now.

Yeah that dude seems unhinged. It's not like forecasting ENSO strength is a mature science with low uncertainty....I'm immediately skeptical of anyone who shows a LOT of confidence in it. It's especially weird to portray so much confidence when we're about to have one of the larger 1 month busts in recent years on model guidance strength of an ENSO event. I don't follow him much on twitter, but I'm wondering if he ever put out any numbers on what he thought the strength of this would be by the end of October.

I wouldn't rule another threat trying to sneak into the fray either prior to mid-month in November....there's a bit of a relaxation after the initial 11/1 threat...like in the 11/3-5 window but then it looks like a potential reload of a colder shot...there's a weak NAO block that retrogrades and sort of re-invigorates the EPO cold loading, so it's something to watch. This isn't super uncommon in El Nino Novembers either...you've probably noticed Scott and I talk about an early/mid November snow threat being a frequent feature of developing El Ninos. The question is whether we can reattain the favorable pattern in December or if we have to wait until January.

Damn, sorry to hear Jeff

Yeah we'll need the trailing shortwave to trend a bit deeper....but again, that's a trend I'd rather need than deamplifying...feel like that's the best way to snow anyway. We'll want that airmass settled in as much as possible before the OH valley shortwave moves in. The whole thing is still somewhat unlikely.....but can't complain too much about tracking even a marginal threat a few days before Halloween.

Eh, it's def the bias of the GFS, but it actually went a bit SE from the 06z run....I'm not really all that invested yet since it's a D5 threat, but you prob don't want to see other guidance doing that...granted it wasn't a big move SE, prob mostly noise for a D5 prog....the GGEM looks quite similar to 00z. I said yesterday I'd rather need a bit more amping up as we get closer rather than the other way around...and we're in that spot right now.

GFS is still too far SE for the 11/1 threat.

A lot of ensemble guidance is trying to form a -PNA trough out west and in the GOA very late in the period near mid-November. This would actually be fairly consistent with the tropical forcing in the 8-1 regions in November El Nino.

Yes it is. The potential for SNE is really Wednesday night and Thursday edit: next Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yeah I like how the western ridge re-flexes on a lot of those GFS runs…EPS has been showing the longwave trough reestablishing itself too after the relaxation in the 11/4-11/7 period. I’m hoping that’s a sign of a different regime this winter.

Oh that’s good news…hopefully they take him (either dead or alive) without anyone else getting hurt.

Yeah and if he was military-trained, he might have some training in survival and stealth. Back country Maine is about as remote as it gets once you get up into the northwest third…almost on par with some of the remoteness of the west even.

Yeah we want to see that 50/50 get pinned a little further south for SNE this early in the season but certainly the look is there for interior NNE and perhaps some of the higher terrain in SNE. It could just end up as a NNE mountains deal too….but for 11/1 that is still semi-interesting. I think at this point, I’d rather see the trailing shortwave a little flatter and hope it amps up as we get closer rather than needing it to tone down. We are still fighting a bit of SE ridging too so there could be some compression issues (Tip’s favorite) as well. But at least there is something to pseudo-track….shake off the winter forecasting rust.

The synoptics are starting to line up for something. I’d favor NNE elevations of course this far out, but you have a shortwave amplifying into an already-established longwave trough with a 50/50 sig…the latter which will become very important for non-mountainous areas to see snow as that would help lock in a decent high to our north. Im not really going to get overly optimistic until we see another 36-48 hours of models parsing out the pattern, but we’re close enough around a week out to see the larger scale synoptic players taking hold beyond just clown range fodder.

What's the longest it took to get 3.4 over 2.0 on weekly numbers (I assume daily numbers are not archived very far back) and still get a 3-month average Super Nino on ONI tri-monthly? I suspect we're getting pretty late for it to still happen. From a monthly standpoint, it looks like 1972 took until November to get a monthly reading over 2.0 but October was +1.83 which is way higher than this October will be.

ORH is also still running a couple degrees warm. Its been unreliable for like 3 years now.

Lol

Yes I remember that very well....like that brings back to college circa fall of, say 2002 or 2000, and you're just waiting for the winter threats to start and eveyr so often, the GGEM would come out of nowhere in late October or November and try and give 3-4 feet of snow at 192 hours on a captured TC into a longwave trough supplying an unusually cold early season airmass.....lol.

The funny thing is you know it's happened at least once in the past few thousand years probably.