ORH_wxman

I wouldn't rule another threat trying to sneak into the fray either prior to mid-month in November....there's a bit of a relaxation after the initial 11/1 threat...like in the 11/3-5 window but then it looks like a potential reload of a colder shot...there's a weak NAO block that retrogrades and sort of re-invigorates the EPO cold loading, so it's something to watch. This isn't super uncommon in El Nino Novembers either...you've probably noticed Scott and I talk about an early/mid November snow threat being a frequent feature of developing El Ninos. The question is whether we can reattain the favorable pattern in December or if we have to wait until January.

Damn, sorry to hear Jeff

Yeah we'll need the trailing shortwave to trend a bit deeper....but again, that's a trend I'd rather need than deamplifying...feel like that's the best way to snow anyway. We'll want that airmass settled in as much as possible before the OH valley shortwave moves in. The whole thing is still somewhat unlikely.....but can't complain too much about tracking even a marginal threat a few days before Halloween.

Eh, it's def the bias of the GFS, but it actually went a bit SE from the 06z run....I'm not really all that invested yet since it's a D5 threat, but you prob don't want to see other guidance doing that...granted it wasn't a big move SE, prob mostly noise for a D5 prog....the GGEM looks quite similar to 00z. I said yesterday I'd rather need a bit more amping up as we get closer rather than the other way around...and we're in that spot right now.

GFS is still too far SE for the 11/1 threat.

A lot of ensemble guidance is trying to form a -PNA trough out west and in the GOA very late in the period near mid-November. This would actually be fairly consistent with the tropical forcing in the 8-1 regions in November El Nino.

Yes it is. The potential for SNE is really Wednesday night and Thursday edit: next Tuesday night and Wednesday

Yeah I like how the western ridge re-flexes on a lot of those GFS runs…EPS has been showing the longwave trough reestablishing itself too after the relaxation in the 11/4-11/7 period. I’m hoping that’s a sign of a different regime this winter.

Oh that’s good news…hopefully they take him (either dead or alive) without anyone else getting hurt.

Yeah and if he was military-trained, he might have some training in survival and stealth. Back country Maine is about as remote as it gets once you get up into the northwest third…almost on par with some of the remoteness of the west even.

Yeah we want to see that 50/50 get pinned a little further south for SNE this early in the season but certainly the look is there for interior NNE and perhaps some of the higher terrain in SNE. It could just end up as a NNE mountains deal too….but for 11/1 that is still semi-interesting. I think at this point, I’d rather see the trailing shortwave a little flatter and hope it amps up as we get closer rather than needing it to tone down. We are still fighting a bit of SE ridging too so there could be some compression issues (Tip’s favorite) as well. But at least there is something to pseudo-track….shake off the winter forecasting rust.

The synoptics are starting to line up for something. I’d favor NNE elevations of course this far out, but you have a shortwave amplifying into an already-established longwave trough with a 50/50 sig…the latter which will become very important for non-mountainous areas to see snow as that would help lock in a decent high to our north. Im not really going to get overly optimistic until we see another 36-48 hours of models parsing out the pattern, but we’re close enough around a week out to see the larger scale synoptic players taking hold beyond just clown range fodder.

What's the longest it took to get 3.4 over 2.0 on weekly numbers (I assume daily numbers are not archived very far back) and still get a 3-month average Super Nino on ONI tri-monthly? I suspect we're getting pretty late for it to still happen. From a monthly standpoint, it looks like 1972 took until November to get a monthly reading over 2.0 but October was +1.83 which is way higher than this October will be.

ORH is also still running a couple degrees warm. Its been unreliable for like 3 years now.

Lol

Yes I remember that very well....like that brings back to college circa fall of, say 2002 or 2000, and you're just waiting for the winter threats to start and eveyr so often, the GGEM would come out of nowhere in late October or November and try and give 3-4 feet of snow at 192 hours on a captured TC into a longwave trough supplying an unusually cold early season airmass.....lol.

The funny thing is you know it's happened at least once in the past few thousand years probably.

At least there's a decent Scooter high north of Maine.

Pretty good agreement on a cold Halloween evening now....GEM prior to 00z had previously been an outlier trying to show a warmer day, but they all look similar now. Hopefully we keep precip out until 11/1

Yeah probably....agreed on more copycats....but what caused that sentiment to increase so much in the past 25 years versus, say, 1980 or 1985 when we could go buy machine guns and go out like Arnold in Commando? Increased nihilism? Depression? Finding the root of that behavioral change or mental outlook is probably where a lot of the solutions arise.

There's been a large increase in mass shootings at the same time we've seen a steep decline in gun homicides....there's definitely something deeper going on. In 1985, you could buy an uzi relatively easily, but we didn't have people spraying Walmart customers every few months. I'm not a gun nut and have no problem banning an AR-15....but that would probably only be a small piece of the solution.

Prob 2010....that was cold and I think there might have been a few scattered flurries around.

2020 redux without the snow pack....this actually might be worse because at least 2020 was a relatively calm evening....but man, it radiated quickly with the fresh snow cover. 1988 comes to mind thinking of brutal trick or treating with cold and a bit of breeze....that's what might happen this time too. I was only 7 so we made it to like 20 houses max before the cold got too bad.

After you originally told me the story many eons ago, I told myself that if I ever found myself in the past, one of my priorities would be to go to LA and find you and convince you to be in Boston for that. All while not sounding like a lunatic.

Only 3 winters since 2008 (when snow depth records started there) have had fewer than 20 days of snow cover at the NWS BOX site....yes, last year was one of them.