ORH_wxman

What's up with the Euro? Didn't run today?

We need a couple more tenths of warming and then have it sustain for 3 months to get a trimonthly reading over 2.0C....that's extremely unlikely at this point. My guess is the peak trimonthly value comes in somewhere around 1.7 or 1.8

Heh...check out that ridge bridge on GFS for 12z on Tday next week. Might be an opportunity down the line in late Nov with that look.

My guess is we end up with the classic worst case sensible wx that often happens in November....we wedge at the sfc but its too warm aloft for a lot of snow....so mostly cold 35-45F rains. GGEM just came in a lot more wedged than 00z at the sfc....so we're probably starting to get some model convergence on cold rain.

Even the Euro was pretty much a complete wedge until FROPA.

Pretty anomalous cold pattern post-Tday. EPS wants to carry it into early December. GEFS are trying to break it down a little earlier.

Only available on 00z runs, but otherwise same link as the regular GEFS. They take a while to update too (00z 11/15 run still not past 384h)

ULL that gives us the cold shot on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday stays more stubborn in SE Canada which holds that high tougher….thus produces the snowier solution for next Tues night.

Yeah the pattern is there for it...if we can hold the cold into the first week of December, I like our chances even more.

Well, for one....GGEM's warmer solution for next Wednesday that I mentioned in the first post seems like it might verify....so that's annoying for the ski areas. That said, it looks pretty brief for the warmth/rain in that. I do think NNE will have a shot or two post-Thanksgiving....that pattern is decent. Even if it's just a lot of rotting LES running into the mountains and getting reinvigorated by upslope. That's still going to be nice. Hopefully we can score one solid QPF snowy system though to lay down a good base.

Most of our late November cold patterns are usually dryish anyway....there's a reason we hardly have any big snowfalls (>8") even in late November but they tend to ramp up quickly after the first few days of December historically....my hypothesis is that big cold in November is typically associated with very high geopotential gradients since the south is still pretty warm....so you crunch those early-season PV intrusions into a high height environment down south and it makes it hard to get anything good to amplify. It's easier to get SWFEs and such....but November is pretty early in the season to get good snow from SWFEs here, so it's typically reserved for NNE. Not sure how well that theory holds up with empirical research, but that's my anecdotal observation when we've had very cold November patterns.

2021 was near normal. 2018 and 2019 were quite cold though.

There’s def been the tendency to see the longer range trend colder as we get closer rather than the other way around in the past few weeks. There’s nothing that guarantees it continues, but all else equal, it’s better than the other way around.

Lots of skim ice on ponds this morning driving through Sherborn/Dover in the way to Quincy. First time I noticed that much.

Yeah seems like overkill for a 6 week forecast.

EPS def out of step with the OP’s milder Tday weekend look. Regardless, still looks quite cold the week after Tday so maybe a chance to sneak in an event there.

2012-13 and 2014-15 both had weak starts to the winter with a lot of snow after mid-January. Though Dec 2012 had some interior snow events.

That’s kind of how Feb 2013 looked aloft. The northern stream was a bit more receptive, but the overall trough with southern stream vort out ahead looked quite similar. It’s a very good look in mid winter.

The next 2 weeks looks really solid for an early start…sans the mildish few days later this week…but that torch really shrank in both magnitude and duration as we got closer…once that cold front comes through on Saturday, I think it’s pretty cold through months-end barring any major changes (or the clown range OP GGEM scoring a coup over the rest of guidance). Should be a lot of snow making and plenty of upslope opportunities from that early-season lake effect on full blast. Hopefully we can get a good synoptic event in there too so that some sense QPF is put down in the base.

That was close to major violence the day before Tday on 18z GFS. Either way though, like I mentioned earlier, there’s quickly a forming consensus on guidance for a cold Thanksgiving. Don’t think we’ll break all time monthly records like 2018, but some of those runs are damned cold.

LOL...didn't see Scott's post....but yeah, pretty torchy for a chunk of early December, but it does improve late....here's how it looks for the 5 day mean leading into Xmas Eve

Weeklies are kind of up and down...maybe a bit colder to open December but then it quickly goes torchy for about 10-12 days until it drastically improves heading into the week before Xmas. Also worth noting that the EPS are significantly colder than the weeklies for late November.

Decent chance of some snow showers and flurries coming through this evening....so maybe those who haven't seen first flakes yet will see a few.

Tday itself is starting to look pretty damned cold on all guidance now...still a bit of uncertainty, but a lot less than there was even a day or two ago. Could see another system later that weekend too.

Time to fire up the Hugh Millen/Tommy Hodson era at QB again....the winters are matching.