ORH_wxman

And the record will never be corrected.

Yeah anything that says TAN and PYM average the same amount of snow is not correct. PYM is prob a solid 6" less.

I'd put Taunton in the 42-45ish range long term. They've been more than that recently, but the last 25 years is not the normal no matter how much we all want it to be.

11/8 looks kind of warm to me, though enough cold lurking nearby that an ideal track may produce interior snows....but there's another window after that in the 11/10-12 timeframe which looks like it has a lot more cold available.

There's no way Lancaster only had 13" in 2013-14.....that must be from the 2012-13 season.

Looks pretty questionable the past few years...but might not be enough for them to flag it like ORH....if it stays within 2F of their calibration tools, they don't change it....an unnerving fact we all found out last year when discussing KORH.

I'm hoping La Nina hangover will lead to at least a couple decent periods in December.

Let’s get a nice 128-495 paster mid-December.

Torchy for December. Kind of neutral for Tday period though.

US domestic fertility is wayyy below replacement level right now (2.1 births per female is replacement level) . Same for most western countries.

Soundings have been looking better today for Wednesday....more moisture getting in here. I think there's a great chance for many to see first flakes.

Might be two shots next week (including next weekend)...that first wave around 11/7-8 which looks more marginal (shows up as a cutter on the GGEM) but then behind that there is a distinct amplification of the western ridge showing up on both OP and ensemble runs which could put another threat into the 11/10-12 timeframe.

Yes Xmas 2002 had the big Nor' Easter.

The day before Tday in 2002 was sort of a NJ model low....really popped quick and I think CT jackpotted with some 10"+ lollis on what was something like a 3-6/4-8 forecast. This is prob the storm Tip was thinking of in 1986: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1986/us1119.php

Split flow underneath a cold Canada and northern tier is showing up on a lot of medium/Long range guidance. Definitely some potential I think in that 11/8-11/12 window…the 11/1 threat looks just too compressed and SE to be able to make a late comeback, but I do like the chances of another model threat or two coming up, even if they don’t pan out.

I’m hoping we get some sort of mitigating factor to keep it somewhat cold for late November….because the first half looks really good for ski areas trying to ramp up snow making. But it’s fairly common to have a warmer late November and December in El Niños. But it’s not a hard and fast rule. If we can pop some Atlantic blocking, then something like that would help offset other warmer influences.

We could sneak in some above normal days between 11/3-11/5 but I agree the average of the first 10 days of November will def be below normal.

GFS had like 3 snow events on that run and Wednesday was a whiff too…lol. Weenie pattern. Ensembles do sort of agree on a chance for an event or two after the mild period 11/3-11/5 or so…we get the initial cold shot, then warm back up, but then go into another colder pattern for like a week into mid-month….then it looks like we warm back up after that as typical Nino climo kicks in for second half of November…but we’ll see.

Yes. Though prob more Wednesday.

Nice to see the trailing shortwave sharpen up a little. If it can trend that way a little more, then we’re looking at a more dynamic system which would increase the chances of better snows.

Did we ever find out what type of training he had in military? If he had stealth and survival training then he could live for a long time in the woods…though I suspect he’d have a hard time surviving the winter in back country Maine. Gets so damned cold there. But he could also be in the Everglades by now too.

Yeah prob take about 40% of that for realistic numbers if we’re using the rest of the model output verbatim. If we can get solid rates, then maybe you’d get closer to 10 to 1…but that’s tough this time of year. You need like -2 or colder at 925 imho.

I'm not an expert by any means on RONI....but from the stuff I've read it seems to have some utility in adjusting how an ENSO event may behave instead of just going by the raw numbers.

Yeah I think there's some conflating of what is going on....you might have a small group of wishcasters on twitter or wherever who try and say this will be a weak/mod modoki-style event.....and I don't really see anyone in here advocating that. I do see some in here advocating for more of a *strong* (but not super) Nino behavior that is maybe more like a blend of years like '57/'65/'09 or something like that....to which I can say that isn't without merit based on what we've seen so far. Doesn't mean we go full cold/snow in the east, but it would represent an important difference compared to a typical Super Nino. Of course the MEI is going to rise because it's barely even in *weak* Nino territory at 0.6....so saying the MEI is going to rise is kind of like announcing it's going to get dark tonight. The question though is *how much* the MEI will rise. I'd be fairly skeptical of it rising into any of the territories seen during previous Super Ninos based on how far behind it is right now.

Yeah that dude seems unhinged. It's not like forecasting ENSO strength is a mature science with low uncertainty....I'm immediately skeptical of anyone who shows a LOT of confidence in it. It's especially weird to portray so much confidence when we're about to have one of the larger 1 month busts in recent years on model guidance strength of an ENSO event. I don't follow him much on twitter, but I'm wondering if he ever put out any numbers on what he thought the strength of this would be by the end of October.