ORH_wxman

Doesn’t matter when you’re talking to a bunch of gaslighters. Might have to actually pull the trigger on bans this winter if blatant lying is going to become a thing.

And then it has to sustain for 3 full months without falling to even get minimal Super Nino on ONI…that doesn’t seem realistic. You’d basically have to sustain >2.0C well into February unless you can get a single monthly reading really high (say something like 2.3C or so). I don’t really see a path to how that happens. I’ll never rule it out completely since ENSO is a very humbling thing to predict…but I’d probably want big odds to bet on it.

It will never not be funny.

Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all.

18z GFS…so flat it actually mostly whiffs us south next week. Lol

Late November is tough sledding usually…even in our cold patterns. I was posting the other day to OceanStateWx and Scooter about how our Novembers typically are kind of tough because it’s a bit compressed when we have cold patterns and SWFE that early on will favor NNE. So we need to thread the needle in SNE. I wouldn’t rule out a little appetizer though the week after Tday. There’s a lot of cold around…just need to time a shortwave right. Hopefully the modeled December warmup is only like 10 days and we can grab some chances toward the holidays.

Where was that article? That sounds awfully analogous to the famous “UK snow is a thing of the past” article back in 2009 and then they got crushed that same winter with anomalous cold/snow. I wonder if the authors of the article are aware that snowfall has drastically increased in Massachusetts over the last half century?

Yeah this doesn’t look like a deeply phased western cutter that produces big southerly gales. This is turning into weak sauce regardless of exact track.

I keep waiting for it to cave on the trough lifting northeast but it keeps stubbornly holding it much longer than other guidance. My guess is that it is mostly wrong. It will be correct just enough to wedge all of us into a cold rain but wrong enough to keep the snow to a minimum.

Euro also tries to show a cutter on Saturday after Tday. Clown range but that is different from most guidance.

Was 41 at my house when I left. Bottom of the hill was 33 with a heavy frost. Maybe 150 foot difference. Crazy.

I don’t think you have to worry about a repeat of last winter there. It was so bad that even a mundane winter will seem great. Even up here it was bad though not quite to the extent that your area (or the coast in SE MA) was.

Snow is all that matters most on the forum. Sure, there’s some that like just the cold too…but even for most who like cold, they want snow with it. We can get a torch winter like 2012-13 but you won’t see many here be upset about that winter…and we all know why.

Yeah, BOS has gone a decade without a 1" event in November....and even in the days of yore, it wasn't uncommon to do that either (they went between 1955-1967 without a 1" event in November). The irony of the '80s too...between 1985-1989, BOS had at least 3" of snow (including a warning snow event in 1987) in 4 out of those 5 Novembers.

I think it’s becoming pretty obvious the Super Nino calls are going to be wrong. How that translates to winter still remains to be seen. The winter could still suck across much of the east. We’ve had low-end moderate El Niños (like 1994-95) that are completely blowtorches. But I don’t see how this Nino goes anything remotely similar to the 1982-83s, 1997-98s, or 2015-16s from a strength perspective.

Prob better that it takes a day off....it's been ka-ka recently.

What's up with the Euro? Didn't run today?

We need a couple more tenths of warming and then have it sustain for 3 months to get a trimonthly reading over 2.0C....that's extremely unlikely at this point. My guess is the peak trimonthly value comes in somewhere around 1.7 or 1.8

Heh...check out that ridge bridge on GFS for 12z on Tday next week. Might be an opportunity down the line in late Nov with that look.

My guess is we end up with the classic worst case sensible wx that often happens in November....we wedge at the sfc but its too warm aloft for a lot of snow....so mostly cold 35-45F rains. GGEM just came in a lot more wedged than 00z at the sfc....so we're probably starting to get some model convergence on cold rain.

Even the Euro was pretty much a complete wedge until FROPA.

Pretty anomalous cold pattern post-Tday. EPS wants to carry it into early December. GEFS are trying to break it down a little earlier.

Only available on 00z runs, but otherwise same link as the regular GEFS. They take a while to update too (00z 11/15 run still not past 384h)

ULL that gives us the cold shot on Sunday/Monday/Tuesday stays more stubborn in SE Canada which holds that high tougher….thus produces the snowier solution for next Tues night.