ORH_wxman

Core of the cold moves east it seems after about D7-8. But this week isn’t exactly warm.

18z euro prob has a couple inches in N ORH county too.

I remember three stooges reruns on all the time when I was a kid in the late 80s and early 90s. GFS shows multiple chance in clown range. You don’t take any of them seriously but it’s nice to see the potential in the pattern. Should be a pretty good pattern for at least NNE snowfall…even without synoptic snows there’s prob gonna be some upslope and leftover LES stuff up there.

Even at 1,000 feet at ORH airport the avg high is 47F tomorrow…43F on 11/30. I feel like we go through this every November. Anyways…given the pattern shown, hopefully we can still sneak something in late month. At least an appetizer.

That week after Tday is looking more intriguing. Previously, we had the best cold coming in around Tday and the few days after with a cold (but moderating) pattern to close the month…but it seems the best cold will be that week now which helps increase the chances a little bit for a threat. Its still early for something big but can’t totally hate the EPS or GEFS look…

Euro FTW right?

The whole progression of the pattern slowed in the last few runs. At first it looked like the max cold was coming for Tday weekend, but now it’s definitely the following week. That actually may work in our favor if we’re trying to get a snow event in November.

I mean all you have to do is go back and look at the posts…cold rain was the most likely scenario.

Doesn’t matter when you’re talking to a bunch of gaslighters. Might have to actually pull the trigger on bans this winter if blatant lying is going to become a thing.

And then it has to sustain for 3 full months without falling to even get minimal Super Nino on ONI…that doesn’t seem realistic. You’d basically have to sustain >2.0C well into February unless you can get a single monthly reading really high (say something like 2.3C or so). I don’t really see a path to how that happens. I’ll never rule it out completely since ENSO is a very humbling thing to predict…but I’d probably want big odds to bet on it.

It will never not be funny.

Ha, now 18z GFS smokes us with a different system Saturday night after Tday. Having a good happy hour today…I guess it is Friday after all.

18z GFS…so flat it actually mostly whiffs us south next week. Lol

Late November is tough sledding usually…even in our cold patterns. I was posting the other day to OceanStateWx and Scooter about how our Novembers typically are kind of tough because it’s a bit compressed when we have cold patterns and SWFE that early on will favor NNE. So we need to thread the needle in SNE. I wouldn’t rule out a little appetizer though the week after Tday. There’s a lot of cold around…just need to time a shortwave right. Hopefully the modeled December warmup is only like 10 days and we can grab some chances toward the holidays.

Where was that article? That sounds awfully analogous to the famous “UK snow is a thing of the past” article back in 2009 and then they got crushed that same winter with anomalous cold/snow. I wonder if the authors of the article are aware that snowfall has drastically increased in Massachusetts over the last half century?

Yeah this doesn’t look like a deeply phased western cutter that produces big southerly gales. This is turning into weak sauce regardless of exact track.

I keep waiting for it to cave on the trough lifting northeast but it keeps stubbornly holding it much longer than other guidance. My guess is that it is mostly wrong. It will be correct just enough to wedge all of us into a cold rain but wrong enough to keep the snow to a minimum.

Euro also tries to show a cutter on Saturday after Tday. Clown range but that is different from most guidance.

Was 41 at my house when I left. Bottom of the hill was 33 with a heavy frost. Maybe 150 foot difference. Crazy.

I don’t think you have to worry about a repeat of last winter there. It was so bad that even a mundane winter will seem great. Even up here it was bad though not quite to the extent that your area (or the coast in SE MA) was.

Snow is all that matters most on the forum. Sure, there’s some that like just the cold too…but even for most who like cold, they want snow with it. We can get a torch winter like 2012-13 but you won’t see many here be upset about that winter…and we all know why.

Yeah, BOS has gone a decade without a 1" event in November....and even in the days of yore, it wasn't uncommon to do that either (they went between 1955-1967 without a 1" event in November). The irony of the '80s too...between 1985-1989, BOS had at least 3" of snow (including a warning snow event in 1987) in 4 out of those 5 Novembers.

I think it’s becoming pretty obvious the Super Nino calls are going to be wrong. How that translates to winter still remains to be seen. The winter could still suck across much of the east. We’ve had low-end moderate El Niños (like 1994-95) that are completely blowtorches. But I don’t see how this Nino goes anything remotely similar to the 1982-83s, 1997-98s, or 2015-16s from a strength perspective.

Prob better that it takes a day off....it's been ka-ka recently.