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ORH_wxman

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Everything posted by ORH_wxman

  1. ORH_wxman
    Man, what a tough forecast. At least around here. I think it’s pretty easy to go 5-8” or so for most of CT. Maybe a stripe of higher if we can pin down where that max forcing ends up. But further northeast this could plausibly be 4-5” or a coating of sand. The fronto gets pretty strong even into MA. If that lowest level of dry air can be overcome then you could still get a surprise band that produces north.
  2. ORH_wxman
    Top analog for this system is 12/14/95 but this is def a further south version of that.
  3. ORH_wxman
    What was wrong with the euro there?
  4. ORH_wxman
    Euro went NE a bit. Prob gets almost all of CT into 4”+ now. Except maybe extreme E or NE zones.
  5. ORH_wxman
    18z GFS looks a hair SW of 12z.
  6. ORH_wxman
    It’s probably true. Heavy snow for 3 hours is going to give you like a quick 4-5” and then you grab a couple on either side of it, there’s your warning event. People shouldn’t be expecting double digits in this. They might happen, but probably because banding was even stronger than anticipated and you never know quite where the best bands will set up.
  7. ORH_wxman
    This is gonna be a crazy battle between the mid and upper level support for heavy snow and the obscene dry arctic air to the northeast. I’m looking at several different models right now and almost all of them are punching some serious lift, fronto, and dPVA well into SNE, but the further northeast you go, it just fights that ridiculous low level arctic air. There’s gonna be crazy Virga on the northeast side. Prob the type of system where you have Virga under 15-20 dbz returns.
  8. ORH_wxman
    Icon and Rgem look very similar to 12z. Rgem might have been a hair NE with the heaviest stuff and icon a hair SW.
  9. ORH_wxman
    SREFS look like they went north a bit too. We’ll see what the 18z globals do but this trend doesn’t feel like it’s stabilized yet.
  10. ORH_wxman
    You may have a watch there if euro ticks NE again . You’re pretty far west and longitude is the key.
  11. ORH_wxman
    They’ll update in afternoon package most likely.
  12. ORH_wxman
    Jan 4, 2018 was pretty cold too over interior. Maybe not teens (except part of it but def low 20s for a long stretch)
  13. ORH_wxman
    2015 had several.
  14. ORH_wxman
    Yeah I was looking at mid levels and there’s an area that looks like it would be pounding but it’s north of the good QPF. Wonder if there is an undermodeled death band for a few hours near that northern line.
  15. ORH_wxman
    Yeah GGEM shifted north too. You get a couple more of those and then you’re getting serious snow into pike region.
  16. ORH_wxman
    Dec 2013 is an underrated really good month that just got really spoiled by the grinch storm.
  17. ORH_wxman
    2013 had a huge cutter type system that CAD’d in NNE and caused a decent ice storm there. Torched into the 50s in SNE though the CAD did back door into SNE eventually. N ORH county over to Ray’s hood kept enough pack though for a white Xmas.
  18. ORH_wxman
    Starting to get a little bit interesting with these 00z trends. Need to see the globals though.
  19. ORH_wxman
    Won’t really buy it until a lot of 00z guidance comes further north.
  20. ORH_wxman
    Not like the norlun winners in Maine, but we’ll take it…festive enough for Xmas Eve
  21. ORH_wxman
    Actually have CAA right now. Temps not dropping much with daylight yet but dews def are dropping.
  22. ORH_wxman
    About 2” on winter hill.
  23. ORH_wxman
    Very dense snow but it looks nice
  24. ORH_wxman
    One of the rare 11th hour breaks we’ve gotten in the last few years. Event somehow got its act together just enough this evening to make it pretty nice. Would be nice if we could get a region-wide good break soon.
  25. ORH_wxman
    We pray for dongs out east tomorrow. Still one more shot at a Christmas miracle there.
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