ORH_wxman

You’d like to see the low north of New Foundland a little south to hold in the high from retreating as much. It would give us more wiggle room on the track.

Not a whole lot to say other than storm is definitely more probable than it looked 24 hours ago. Reasonable model agreement for 5.5-6 days out now. The cold front that comes through Sunday night is our antecedent airmass. So you’ll want it to trend stronger/south if you want the storm to come in colder on subsequent runs. Ideally you’d get both the cold front stronger and the shortwave stronger from the storm…which would give you a colder antecedent airmass but a juicier storm running into it.

If it were Christmas Eve instead of Thanksgiving Eve, the 60F isotherm would be 100 miles north.

It’s pretty cold in the low levels on that depiction. Pretty wide area of sleet. It’s a really sloped system. But these are details that are mostly irrelevant right now.

When the hell did you move down to the south coast? Must’ve been when I was on vacation from here all summer.

We’re due for another good old classic 495 storm. The high is actually starting in a decent spot at the onset. It retreats but even coast might get a good front ender if that antecedent airmass is good.

We’ll make sure the proper rituals are done to maximize our chances. If it doesn’t work, we’ll just have to sacrifice someone

The weeklies keep slowly amplifying the Scandi ridging toward the North Pole over the course of December. They pop a western ridge too in week 3. That would be pretty sweet.

‘93-94 winter….so Tday ‘93

I consider any accumulation from squalls an overachiever if it's fairly widespread....but yeah, I do think there will be some isolated streamers that get a few lucky peeps. It would be nice if we could turn the low level winds more to the south out ahead of the secondary arctic front. That would help pool a little more moisture.

EPS likes 12/6 for another threat. Then when you loop the individual member plot beyond 12/6, it's kind of like buckshot from 12/8-12/11 which is the end of the run...that tells me its pretty active if sub-1004 lows are appearing that frequently on the ensemble plot. Hopefully that NAO depiction is real....it's the type of orientation we want too....the retrograding Scandinavian ridge instead of some ugly thing from the Azors....that type of -PNA/-NAO look I've mentioned in the past can be pretty prolific here.

Not very good low level moisture either which is what you want for over achieving WINDEX events.

Beyond that 12/2 threat which is pretty precarious as it is....the pattern looks about as favorable as you can get it considering we're firmly in a La Nina/-PDO regime this season....note the NAO ridging that has retrograded into Greenland from Scandavia....this is what Scott and I were talking about when we wanted to see it come back a couple days ago. It's been showing up again and it's gotten a bit stronger the last 2 runs of the EPS, so hopefully it's not fake. It makes the pattern a lot better when you have even just some weak ridging up there. This is a 5 day mean .

EPS not quite as good as 00z, but this is workable at D7.

Euro still has the system and H5 doesn’t look terrible. Not in a bad spot right now.

Parakeets and flamingos today. Proba the last of it for a while until Christmas Eve.

Not the worst spot for the GEFS to be at D6-7

LOL at the end of that run trying to form a Hudson Bay block....that would probably produce all sorts of craziness. That's actually how Dec 19-20, 1995 happened.

GFS still has 12/2 which is good. GGEM has it but really weak sauce.

This type of miller A evolution is probably decent for us if it holds like that. It’s kind of a slower developing system so it’s not like you are going to see it blowing it’s wad down in VA or the Carolinas. Trough stays positively tilted for a while which prevents occlusion too early. This is why I previously mentioned that it’s probably a good thing that the southern stream drags a little. If it didn’t, we’d rip this like due north into BGM or ALB or something.

We just don’t know?

Yeah the main show looks mostly on Tuesday as presently modeled. But this is kind of a delicate look with the timing of the southern energy. We’re gonna want this to hold serve for a couple more days before confidence increases a lot. The good news is even if that threat craps out, it looks good for additional threats behind it. Overnight longer range guidance has become a little more aggressive in retrograding the Scandinavian ridging into northern Greenland which in conjunction with a bit more amped WPO ridge, is producing a colder look into mid-December.

There’s some decent energy rounding the base of the longwave trough after it moves east a bit so we get this brief window for a more coastal system. I think most subsequent threats beyond that are likely to be SWFEs. Previously for 12/2-12/3, the southern stream energy was hanging back in the southwest while northern stream moved over us…then, when the southern stream ejected a day or two later (say getting us by 12/5ish…which is why we were saying post-12/3 looked decent), it would push a SWFE up into the cold that was established ahead of it by the northern stream…but it’s not evolving like that now…instead, they are almost moving together so we get this threat to potentially materialize on 12/2…southern stream still lags a bit which is a good thing because it allows the baroclinic zone to set up offshore. But it’s still close enough that it can produce a coastal on some of these runs.

EPS looks pretty decent for a week out. I like seeing those gulf lows a bit offshore at this point. We know how those can trend.

Yeah could be old school pond skating by 12/15 if some of these runs are correct.