ORH_wxman

Ensembles are slowly coming around to the idea of one last hurrah pattern starting sometime near mid-month and we'll see how long it can hold on against climo that turns hostile pretty quickly.

This used to be pushed a lot more in the mainstream years ago versus now. I think there was a study like 8-9 years ago that went viral in mainstream about decreasing snow averages from CC....it projected something like a 40% reduction in mean snowfall by 2035 for cities like BOS and ORH. The study didn't pass the smell test to anyone who knows anything about snowfall climo or how it relates to temperatures/QPF combo....but it didn't stop the narrative being spread far and wide. All this does is create misconceptions and distorted expectations....which then can be used cynically to discredit the idea of CC even existing. Some of CC's most enthusiastic proponents do the most to destroy its credibility in a twist of irony.

PHX has one of the highest documented UHI effects from development of any major station in the US. Not surprising though given its location.

GFS skynet is kind of interested in the 3/3-3/4 threat.

Mid-30s during mid-morning definitely feels like spring in New England....the snow pack this deep does not.

The cynic would look at that confluence up near Labrador and imagine that verifying a bit south....

06z OP Euro

Sunday could be an inch or two....we'll see. Beyond that next week it's kind of a disaster on model guidance....I could see another decent SWFE if things eject right, but it could also just end up as shredded mess or warmer if everything is delayed....hard to say. We definitely need to watch the Quebec highs....they've been undermodeled much of the winter in the medium range. That is no guarantee they will continue to be under modeled, but it's something to keep in the back of our minds.

Correct...when you are ripping 4" per hour, you are gonna have to some fluff factor even if there are winds. Sometimes the extreme rates can stabilize the winds a little in the heart of the banding....the snow itself acts a drag on it....which also helps ratios.

Looks pretty bleak right now....though the 06z Euro did hit us on Mar 3-4 with a solid advisory/low end warning type event. But we need a lot more agreement on that.

Those general upslope areas seem to have done ok which makes sense given the number of clippers and northwest flow disturbances we’ve had…but once you are further east out of the upslope spots, its def been pretty dry.

Not sure but 4seasons map earlier in this thread is as good or better than the NWS ones anyway. I hope the NWS one still updates though because I hate when incorrect data floats around.

Stein has really infected NNE…seems worse the further north you go.

You can def get them late in the season Feb 28-Mar 1, 1995….had a lesser one but still decent on 3/2/07. And the below is from 3/23/24. Just two years ago in ORH. Most of that was midday too which is amazing that late.

The Quebec highs have been relentless this winter so having that trend like that wouldn’t surprise me. Gotta get through the next week first and see how anything prior shakes out . We’ll see.

Kevin’s long lost icestorm showing up on GFS for next weekend?

Lol that OP GFS shows like 3 straight days of 70s to start the second week of March. Unlikely that verifies but the longwave pattern is definitely getting a warmer look at that point.

Can’t remember the last time we had this many C-2” type events. I’ll have to run the numbers but it feels like the highest this decade at min.

Just shoveled quickly. Sun will melt anything else that falls. About 1.5” refresher…can’t complain…was expecting C-1”

That was part of it, but most of the snow in these tends to fall within a 18-20 hour period....the stall prob adds another half foot or something like that. Someone very lucky gets more in the stall, but usually the precip starts to get pretty banded after a time when it stalls. If you push that arc of convective snows well inland, you're gonna get crazy widespread totals....think April '97 with maybe a bit less total QPF (we wouldn't have gotten quite the juicy WCB like that one had....which fell in a lot of areas as rain) and colder of course so the net result is basically '97 with the 30"+ stuff over a larger area. But who knows for sure since we didn't see it. I agree that the current jackpot area would've gotten less if it tracked 50 miles NW, but my guess is still easily 20-30"+.

Eyeballing an inch with one more solid band to move through....would be awesome if we could get to 2".

That map isn’t quite final. Still has BOS at 16.9

Starting to pick up now. Borderline moderate with good growth

Def feels like an over performer here looking at radar. Steady light snow but picking up quick. Temp wetbulbing down to 16F. Was kind of skeptical of this one but seems like we got enough southerly flow juicing this a bit into the low level cold dome.

Snow commencing here. Temp 17F. Don’t think we’ll have many BL issues until it’s out.