ORH_wxman

Canadians at it again.

Yes it did.

Your area very well might jack or at least near-jack.

CAD wouldn’t really impact sleet vs snow. CAD will be lower level. It’s prob weird shaped because it’s marginal…the warm layer above 0C is prob very very thin so slightly different rates/dynamics might cause it to flip between snow and sleet at that point.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1981/us1206.php Feb ‘99 was similar too https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1999/us0225.php

Jan ‘05 def did. Jan ‘11 for sure. Jan ‘17. Those were coastals though. This is basically a massive SWFE. We do get some coastal characteristics below about 800-850mb, but can’t really recall a similar system. Maybe Feb 5, 2014…that was a really juiced SWFE. Airmass wasn’t like this though. This airmass being so cold is what makes this one a different beast.

GFS has some decent goodies for Monday too. Esp east.

Looks like Reggie not running again. They did finally run the 12z after nobody cared.

Yes. Maybe not quite as wild as 12k but same general idea.

3k gives you a 20-burger even with 10 to 1 ratios.

Queue @Typhoon Tip talking about cotton balls falling in the orange glow of the lights on Monday evening if that NAM ending happens.

This is just the Monday stuff.

Def is showing an IVT hanging back and when that stronger vort energy hits it, some nice precip blossoms. It shows some pretty nice snows right into late Monday night over eastern areas. Some spots get over 0.30” of liquid between 18z Monday and the end of the storm. That would prob be very high ratio fluff and take storms totals to higher end of the ranges. Im still ambiguous on how Monday plays out but an 18z NAM version would be very good.

Yeah both Feb ‘78 and Feb ‘03 beat April ‘97 for storm total but neither of them beat the 24 hour record from ‘97.

25.4” in April ‘97. There is a zero percent chance that gets broken in this storm.

Looks like you snuck a government map in there on the left side, middle row. We also lost most of eastern MA on the middle map. ORH hills gonna get crushed with onshore flow.

Imagine how sharp the trend in National average temperature would drop.

I find clown maps in general to be very misleading. They are ok for kind of gauging the max zone or distribution of snowfall but even in those cases you have to be careful…esp when it’s very very cold like this storm. It tries to spit out like 20+ to 1 ratios way up north where arctic sand might be falling. They are kind of fun to look at, but be aware of your audience, lol. Those of us who are on here all the time and look at them all the time know their shortcomings, but many irregular posters who jump on during larger events might not. The ramping up of QPF in this system is a very good sign though for the higher amounts. A lot of times we see some decent haircuts as we get closer if it’s not a big coastal…but not this time. This one looks like the real deal.

The kuchera maps will be correct somewhere, but not because they are uniquely skilled…it will just happen to guess the ratio correctly wherever good snow growth overlaps with the deep layer cold the longest. Outside of that zone it will probably wildly overestimate.

Rgem and GGEM never ran, lol. Can always count on the Canadians

Scooter jack?

Drop a couple tenths on Monday with those soundings. You could grab 3-5” of fluff with that. I hope it’s right but it’s not every model. Icon and NAM were less. Maybe a tenth at most.

Some nice goodies on Monday on gfs. That’s high ratio fluff looking at soundings.