ORH_wxman
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Everything posted by ORH_wxman
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It's a huge hit into BOS.
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At least 12z Euro AI gets precip into interior SNE now.
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I'm betting he's at least 75% snow in this...probably all snow. Even the zonked GFS is like right on the line for him to be mostly snow.
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Unusable for this system....00z was almost a full whiff.
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Might be underdone where it remains all snow....the all snow zone isn't like 33F snow unless you're in a solution where the coastal zones and SE zones are mostly snow...otherwise, its gonna be 29-32F...so accumulation should be pretty efficient even if its a little pasty.
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Guidance blend would work pretty well for your area down to mine and Kevin's area. But you have an advantage with the latitude.
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You're prob in a good spot...GFS only needs to be overamped by a very small margin for you to get a warning event.
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GEM is going to be SE of 00z....looks like the Euro. D4 model war.
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GFS is a lot more stacked than other guidance (i.e not as sloped with the pressure fields)....it's really going crazy with the main vort focusing and capturing the system....so we're seeing these tucked solutions with crazy QPF and rates....but also warmer for most of our area. I'm actually not sure which one to buy right now....I could be convinced either way. Part of me thinks GFS is a little overdone on this given the synoptics, but it's not impossible to see that solution.
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Yep, not even close to 06z run...
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Surprised nobody posted the ICON..... Pretty huge hit well down into CT. Ginxy gonna text Scooter soundings in a few minutes.
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IF you're looking for early trends today on model guidance...if you want colder, the first ingredient is get that initial cold push on Monday stronger....if we can drive that -10C 850 line down toward the south coast 12z-18z Monday, then you are looking at a colder profile. But if it gets hung up in CNE, you're gonna see that marginal airmass issue quickly develop on the coastal plain.
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Yeah I think Kevin over to me is like 50/50 right now for pretty good paste job (even if some mix gets in there eventually). Ray’s extra latitude makes him a little better odds. Obviously like ORH (esp northern half of county) up into monads are looking really good if we’re talking SNE zones.
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If current guidance is very close to reality, I’d prob put you around 50/50 for warning snow.
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I think interior SNE will get some decent snow. Interior CT in that I-84 stretch might have some issues at 925 but we’ll see how hard that pushes inland. Lot of variation on guidance.
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I can’t believe Euro AI is still almost a whiff. What a dumb model.
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06z eps
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Yeah it’s the first storm of the season so I think people are naturally getting a little too hooked on each model run…it’s still 5 days out. It’s not like we’re 72 hours out.
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Euro being so flat is a bit of a red flag still. But there’s still so much time for this system.
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It’s a bit of a red flag but I’ve seen the AI totally out to lunch before and it has been slowly but surely ticking NW the last few runs. Watch the vort track…that usually tells you. It’s currently tracking from like central PA into LI/RI. That’s not really a big suppressed look to me. It can become suppressed if the vort/energy gets ground up too much but it’s still pretty defined in PA.
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Good spot right now for a lot of SNE imho. Plenty of time to tick north with a retreating high.
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Euro AI is a cape scraper, lol. It’s been really flat. We’ll see what the OP does in a few minutes.
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128 gradient
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Vort def gets squeezed as it heads east. It’s the classic opposing forces we often see in these types of setups where the downstream WAA/ridge pumping is being offset by the confluence up in Quebec.
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Looks in-between icon and GFS.
