ORH_wxman

This area is pretty often on the correct side of the “495 gradient” despite being a little inside 495. But so many times I’ve seen huge gradients like 2 towns east. But you do get these events sometimes where it’s really more like ORH is the line…the lower part of the city even might be on the warm side of the gradient. This happened during the ice storm in 2008. Also during the March 2023 Firehose event. Lower elevations literally had 5” of slop and it was like 15” on winter hill and then 2 feet another 5 miles NW. granted, that was the most extreme I’ve seen.

I’m hedging on the lower end here at the moment. I’m not convinced of some of these rates but we’ll see. If we can get a temporary bombing low scenario which isn’t impossible for a few hours, then we might be able to rip if we stay on the cold side. Id feel a lot better on winter hill, lol

These early runs have a been a little flaccid on dynamics. But some of these mesos were also pretty bonkers to begin with. The massive 1-1.5 QPf getting well inland never looked that realistic.

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago.

The ultimate inhibitor is going to be initialization. That’s always the main issue. That’s something that even AI can’t solve easily.

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road.

Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape.

Sorry I meant storm vista. The wx bell isn’t that different than the weathermodels. Some differences on the margins but SV was like a Taunton to Carver jackpot, lol

I also cannot believe the model differences at less than 48 hours out.

What’s up with the wx bell clown maps. Doesn’t look like the weathermodels one.

GFS came in a little colder too. Maybe we’ll get a GFS/Euro convergence today.

They look a bit juicier than the OP in terms of amplification but not by much. But that’s prob a good sign we’re gonna see model convergence. Betting OP is still a bit too flat

Euro AI itself is a massive hit for us in the moderate interior. But trusting any OP right now is asking for trouble. I think we’d take a model blend right now and run.

Yeah I thought for a minute it was gonna try and NAM further south for the ending but it didn’t quite have enough juice aloft. NAM is still in its own world with that h5 look deepening so fast.

Yep but it was after the 12z rogue GFS run. Nobody believed the GFS and then the 18z runs all started trending toward it.

Crazy gradients around 495 on both models. Rgem looked a little cooler by a smidge. Not that we really care what these models say unless the euro and GFS agree with them at this time range.

I think Boxing Day 2010 was basically the only time the GFS scored a NW coup in the 2005-2020 era. I do remember it scored a NW coup in back when it was the AVN in the New Years weekend 2000 storm. But that was back when the 12z Euro came out at 8pm on weather.unisys

I think you all are overestimating how good the forecasts/model guidance was 10 or 15 years ago. We used to have SWFEs in the late 2000s and early 2010s hammering DC like 4 days out and then mixing got into S NH by verification. Back in the days when Ekster was trolling Nikolai 4 days out on how the GFS DC jackpot was a great sign for New England. Once we got inside 84 hours, we started getting deadly at times (and all of us knew many of the model biases back then as they were more distinct)….but even then, we had plenty of crazy moves inside of 3 days.

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years.

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event.

Yeah mean either but also not sold on the low going up your Fanny or even Canal runners. Tough forecast.

NAM and ICON get play because they come out first.

Good news is the EPS has been manhandling the GEFS for the early December period. GEFS has been caving to EPS when it gets to like D10-11-12. Hopefully that continues because EPS looks really good. Even popping western ridging week 2 where a more substantial system could develop in that look.

All of these H5 looks (not including the NAM which goes crazy deep and consolidated) are trending toward this partial phase with northern stream and the vort gets sheared and attenuates…this is turning this system pretty ugly from an organization standpoint. I’d like to see a trend back toward keeping the southern vort a little more independent longer at 00z tonight but I’m becoming skeptical we will see that.

I’m tossing the NAM. Even the crazy GFS runs weren’t that amped.