ORH_wxman

I think we’re def gonna have chances over the final 10 days of the month. It just will come with a lot of risk. There’s some weird blocking that’s been showing up too and the orientation of that will be a factor too. There aren’t a ton of analog patterns to that look. It’s kind of an unstable wave pattern there.

Let’s hope the weeklies are wrong. They basically furnace us the entire month of January, lol.

Took away our high pressure to the north for Xmas. But whatever…we’ll check back in once we’re inside a week. 12/23 wasn’t too far off from something decent either. Seems like the ridge axis was further east than other runs. Subtle but important differences. OP vs EPS

I read some fascinating papers and articles on the lives of human species (both Neanderthal and Homosapiens who arrived later in the period) in Europe during the 20k-80k years ago period…basically most of that was during pretty strong ice ages. They were able to figure out from bones and other artifacts that someone who survived until age 35 back then had a body more akin to someone in their 70s today. Lots of arthritis and other health issues and fast aging. Pretty amazing when you think about it. What a tough environment to live in back then. Even in much more recent times going merely back to late 19th or very early 20th century, nearly half of babies didn’t reach the age of 18. Unheard of now.

They also had a climate where their September was like December is in the Holocene. Back to school in snow gear?

Yeah I’d put Friday's system as narrowly into Grinch territory. Usually they happen closer to Xmas but if it’s 6 days out that is prob close enough. At least we have a shot at redemption though. It would be nice to get 2 in a row after we weaseled a decent snow event before Xmas last year.

Really solid event for the Cape. Especially this early in the season. Not bad to pull borderline warning criteria on Dec 14th.

He def knows his stuff. I learned much from him my freshman year at Cornell (he was a senior there in the met department when I was a freshman)

It would have to be a quick clipper/redeveloper type of coastal. Not some classic Miller A or even a deeper miller B that blows up off Carolinas. Overwhelmingly the types of threats we get on a look like that would be overrunning/SWFE types.

I think its not a great chance, but it's definitely not zero....we have about a 2-3 day window in there from 12/23-12/25 to grab something. I think the cold is there during that stretch, but the question is can we get a nice system to run into the cold. PRob a SWFE or overrunning since you don't get many coastals with a ridge over the center of the country. But this is not a hopeless look by any stretch in New England...

Really no chances until maybe 12/23. Gotta hope we get a shortwave to run into the confluence which seems to be pretty stout on the ensembles…so there’s a good chance we’re at least seasonably cold during that period if not colder. But the question is whether we can get a system to fly around that ridge in the center of the country in time.

Man, mid cape is getting hammered And outer cape too

I think that’s a pretty good bet there now. At the very minimum, it’s hard to see anything less than 2” falling there and these later model runs are definitely giving a lot more upside if things break right.

18z gfs ticking NW too

Congrats on warning snows for SE MA on 18z NAM.

Lock it in.

NAM has some really good snow growth on the south coast predawn and early morning tomorrow. So if they can get into some decent rates, they could fluff their way to low end warning.

Looks like ICON and Reggie nudged a little north too.

Yeah the NAM popped a bit late but really looked good down there.

Slowing it down is prob actually good because it gives it time to buckle a bit…we don’t want it blowing up completely after our longitude. If it can be allowed to buckle a bit and blow up further west, then the warning-level goods could scrape the south coast and Cape

Hrrr really hammers the Cape and maybe parts of adjacent SE MA with legit fronto banding.

When you loop the ensembles, the ridge axis never makes it here. That could be ripe for a good overrunning or SWFE

Surprised to see the good trends overnight after the early flaccidness of the 00z runs. I think some of these runs are extremely close to giving the south coast a borderline warning event. Hopefully we can grab a couple inches up to BOS-ORH…still a bit skeptical for the pike region but it’s plausible at least now.

No help on trends from RGEM or ICON. We’re prob toast up here for anything more than C-1”. South coast to Cape still has a chance at something more interesting.

17 years ago today…hard to believe. Almost all of this fell at about 31F