Torch Tiger

the 12z gfs did have that idea of carving out a seasonably decent trough over the EC. That's been the idea for a while but delayed a bit, I talked about it last week. Looks more aggressive than at that time, though

If that lr 12z Euro AI is anywhere near correct, we head straight to early autumn for a while. lol

that pesky polar blocking really setting up on that run

polar blocking? lol it's a short-lived cool shot as things are moving along quickly. Not blocky at all

2009 was the summer we had hail every few days/ week or so?

what am I looking for

Now, that's a beaut.

no way that's a ginx shot

awesome

Glad to get a light storm like that. 10 min rain

Avg storm here. Very little thunder, assuming that little complex was mature rolling through (mostly sw). Maybe .30" rain est

This is not the goods

Birds are going wild rn. lol. We may see a storm?

what a day, a miss here but we celebrate for others

ttte

Any mesos at all?

that SW flank will probably fill more

I could see N /E CT getting in on some storms a while later. definitely some southerly development/ saggers going on with that line as it pushes east

can see the broken line split happening MA/VT/NH border to route 2 already. lol

is that the closest store?

radar looks like ass tbh, but it has improved a bit the past 30 min.

stay vigilant and safe.

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms, primarily capable of damaging wind gusts, are anticipated this afternoon and into the evening across portions of New England into eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and New Jersey. Though there is some uncertainty in the degree of convective organization and evolution, a severe thunderstorm watch could be warranted later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar trends show convection developing across PA into NY in an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy (~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (40-45 kt 0-6km). Though deep convection has yet to form, it is anticipated that as daytime heating and mixing continues, the environment will support strong, organized thunderstorm updrafts. Given long, straight hodographs and appreciable 0-1 km lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, along with seasonably high precipitable water content approaching 2.00 inches, the primary threat will be for damaging straight-line winds of 55-70 MPH within thunderstorm downdrafts. Hail or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any stronger, isolated organized convection that occurs, though low-level shear and mid-level lapse rates do not suggest that they are likely at this time.

90 seconds more than many of us