Torch Tiger

light sprinkles and distant thunder. just as planned!

tor warning

Nice cell just NW of Hollis NH

enough shear where everything wants to rotate.

tor-warned cell from NYS continues on west of ORH. (West Brookfield-ish)

With this lining out, you're almost can't-miss in Templeton.

looking more and more QLCS-like, no?

we're mostly talking here, if you want to join

damn.

you must be agonizingly close to those showers near I-93?

If only we had respectable mid-level lapse rates. Would most likely have a few discrete monsters

any damage reports? ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0215 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 ENE Ancram 42.07N 73.58W 09/06/2025 Columbia NY 911 Call Center Tree and wires down across the roadway.

lots of bubbly TCU popping to my west

first tor warning!

Yeah decent velocity on that cell near Milan NY

watch up! SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a boundary from central Maryland northeastward into parts of New York/Vermont. These storms will intensify through the afternoon, with locally severe storms expected. Damaging winds will be the main risk with the stronger cells, although a few could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west of Wilmington DE to 25 miles east of Bangor ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

missed this earlier. 80% Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is possible by early afternoon. Issuance of one or more watches is likely. DISCUSSION...Filtered heating is ongoing late this morning from parts of NJ/eastern PA into parts of New England, to the east of a substantial cloud shield and embedded weak convection. Morning soundings depict generally poor midlevel lapse rates, but relatively rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 F) and continued heating will result in MLCAPE increasing to the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Scattered surface-based storm development is expected as soon as early afternoon, as a cold front begins to impinge upon this destabilizing environment. Deep-layer shear is already rather strong across the region, and will continue to increase in response to a notable mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the lower Great Lakes region. Initial development may quickly evolve into a few supercells, though deep-layer flow/shear roughly parallel to the front may eventually result in a tendency toward storm clustering and possible QLCS development. Some increase in low-level shear/SRH with time could support a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercells, especially where surface winds remain locally backed near a weak surface wave that will traverse the front this afternoon. Isolated hail may also occur with any supercells. Otherwise, scattered damaging wind will become increasingly possible with time, as storm coverage increases and low-level lapse rates steepen. One or more watches will likely be issued by early afternoon in order to cover these threats.

convection looks shallow and meh. hope that ramps up soon

womp womp

Great day to go for a drive even if the storms aren't particularly good.

Debbie's gonna debbie

Hrrr is terrible. Hope 3k is right

Looks and feels like a big day

9/7/23 was ok

Early September is a mini-peak for severe, often as good as it gets around here. 9/7/98 is a great example